Produits de la mer - n°181 - Avril 2018 - 30

News ❘ IN-DEPTH

Brexit : redistribution
des espèces industrielles

En analysant l'impact du Brexit sur
les quotas et les approvisionnements
en pélagiques, le cabinet PwC
Seafood de Bergen souligne deux
points en préambule. Le retrait
du Royaume-Uni de l'Union
européenne a des conséquences
imprévisibles. Mais un point est
clair : les Britanniques insistent pour
retrouver la maîtrise et le contrôle de
leur zone économique exclusive.
Ce postulat étant, PwC évalue
ses effets sur les principales
pêcheries exploitées par les pays
concernés. Dans la mer du Nord,
les captures de maquereau dans les
ZEE britanniques et norvégiennes
sont en grande partie réalisées
par d'autres pays. En retenant le
principe du « zonal attachment »,
les Britanniques pourraient doubler
leur production actuelle.
Pour le hareng, l'effet Brexit leur
serait favorable car le Danemark,
l'Allemagne et les Pays-Bas pêchent
des volumes élevés dans les eaux
britanniques. L'effet est neutre pour
les Irlandais qui exploitent le hareng
dans leur zone. Le Royaume-Uni
serait globalement bénéficiaire sur
la pêche de merlan bleu. Idem sur
d'autres espèces industrielles comme
le sprat ou le tacaud norvégien, que
le Danemark capture en quantité
dans les eaux britanniques.

Carte de la ZEE britannique.

❘ 30 ❘

PRODUITS DE LA MER N°181 AVRIL 2018

Norway:
the salmon galaxy in 2050
Is the Norwegian objective
to reach 5 million tons of
aquaculture production in
2050 feasible? To this question,
PwC responds with an exciting
analysis of the challenges
ahead.
www.news.cn

[ À SUIVRE DANS PdM ]

he goal of the Norwegian government is to increase fourfold
the current level of salmon production. Through their licensing policy, the
authorities have a decisive influence on
future growth. The current decision system or "Traffic light system" is based
on environmental criteria. It identifies
thirteen production areas in which the
presence of salmon lice is an indicator
of activity regulation. The level of the
louse proliferation has direct effects
on wild salmon contamination and risk
of mortality. Eight areas get the green
light from the authorities, two get the
red and three the yellow. In its study (1),
PwC believes that this regulatory system offers opportunities but the cost of
access to licences seems too high. The
major part of the additional volumes
available being auctioned, the system
favours large companies and the concentration of the sector.
Among the influential trends, climate
change and consumer demands for sustainable production are pushing governments to reinforce constraints which are
often costly for the upstream production
line. Faced with rising farming costs, the
industry tends to rely heavily on automation, on the development of big data and
artificial intelligence to increase productivity. The rise in the price of marine ingredients brings out new sources of substitution. Priority is given to the ongoing work
on microalgae, insect meal, micro-organisms, vegetable oils ...
In the short term, another priority is the fight against the proliferation
of salmon lice which is accentuated by
global warming. At this stage, organic
treatments or food seem more effective
than mechanical systems which generate

Increasingly capitalistic, Norwegian salmon farming will intensify.
Here, the first offshore platform built in China.

Only 1/3 of leading
salmon farming
companies believe
in the anticipation
of a 5 million
tons production
by 2050.

mortality and can let salmons out during
handling operations.
Investment greedy, new farming technologies are promising but they raise
the issue of costs. In particular offshore,
while closed or semi-closed systems at
sea and recirculating aquaculture systems onshore look like being the most
competitive by 2050. In the immediate
future, the traditional structures of cages
in the fjords are the most efficient. If they
are vulnerable to the increase of licence
value over time, they still have many
good years ahead.
(1) "Sustainable growth towards 2050",
Pwc Seafood barometer 2017,
available on the internet

[ 3 possible scenarios for PwC:
optimistic, average or pessimistic ]
◗ The best estimate of 5.2 million tons by PwC
implies 100% green lights from the authorities.
The medium assumption of 3.3 million is based
on 50% green lights. The weakest growth leads
to a production of 1.7 million tons in 2050.
There is great uncertainty as far as these
forecasts are concerned, given the many
factors involved: success of new technologies,
government policy, fight against salmon lice...

http://www.news.cn

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