Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016 - 17

AUTO CARE SALES HISTORY AND FORECAST 2007-2018
Results of the latest Channel Forecast Model through 2018 have been prepared by IHS and are presented below. With some
acceleration in growth in 2015 and 2016, Auto Care Industry sales of $238.4 billion in 2013 are expected to grow at an annual
compounded growth rate of 3.6 percent through 2018. The total service share is expected grow at 3.3 percent annually while
the retail segment of the industry is expected to grow at 4.0 percent annually during the 5-year period. Electronic Shopping
& Mail-order houses will lead the group with 6.6 percent growth during the period. It is not surprising to note that New Car
Dealers' service is expected to change dramatically from their 0.5 percent average between 2007 and 2012 to 3.5 percent
annually from 2013 to 2018.

Auto Care Industry Sales by Channel: History & Forecast
(USD Millions)

5-Yr
CAGR
('07-'12)

5-Yr
CAGR
('13-'18)

NAICS

2007
Census

2010#

2011#

2012#

2013#

2014#

2016*

2017*

2018*

General automotive repair shops

811111

30,961

31,684

32,064

33,567

35,006

36,040

37,038

38,179

39,585

41,445

42,619

43,923

3.1%

3.5%

Automotive body, paint & interior repair &
maintenance

811121

22,855

23,256

23,534

24,622

25,753

26,356

26,948

27,484

28,216

29,199

29,915

30,663

2.9%

2.6%

Carwashes

811192

5,306

5,384

5,404

5,612

5,843

6,025

6,158

6,372

6,615

6,936

7,147

7,382

2.6%

3.7%

Automotive oil change & lubrication shops

811191

4,563

4,631

4,600

4,886

5,083

5,288

5,458

5,693

5,927

6,234

6,486

6,751

3.0%

4.3%

Automotive glass replacement shops

811122

3,023

3,079

3,102

3,252

3,408

3,514

3,614

3,707

3,835

4,000

4,135

4,274

3.1%

3.4%

Automotive transmission repair specialists

811113

2,613

2,659

2,719

2,883

3,025

3,143

3,263

3,379

3,497

3,655

3,773

3,893

3.8%

3.6%

Other automotive mechanical & electrical
repair & maint.)

2008#

2009#

2015#

811118

2,118

2,153

2,164

2,306

2,399

2,460

2,513

2,570

2,629

2,715

2,789

2,859

3.0%

2.6%

Automotive exhaust system repair specialists 811112

1,357

1,377

1,391

1,453

1,527

1,590

1,650

1,712

1,776

1,860

1,930

1,997

3.2%

3.9%

All Other automotive repair & maintenance
Personal & household goods repair &
maintenance

1,093

1,110

1,114

1,171

1,221

1,272

1,307

1,349

1,400

1,468

1,508

1,557

3.1%

3.6%

811198

20

21

20

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

1.8%

4.0%

Total Service

8114

73,909

75,354

76,111

79,771

83,287

85,710

87,972

90,471

93,505

97,539

100,329

103,327

3 .0%

3 .3%

Service Share of Total Market

35 .5%

36 .1%

37 .0%

37 .4%

37 .3%

37 .1%

36 .9%

36 .7%

36 .5%

36 .5%

36 .4%

36 .3%

Automotive Parts & Accessories stores (**)

441310

22,576

22,183

21,933

23,031

24,618

25,520

26,271

27,183

28,245

29,411

30,273

31,112

2.5%

3.4%

Tire Dealers

441320

14,742

14,348

14,046

14,785

15,628

16,150

16,654

17,242

17,957

18,728

19,302

19,921

1.8%

3.6%

Warehouse clubs & superstores

452910

8,120

8,483

8,684

9,341

10,015

10,527

11,214

11,796

12,414

13,094

13,596

14,141

5.3%

4.7%

Other gasoline stations

447190

5,605

5,611

5,549

5,795

6,081

6,343

6,614

6,873

7,250

7,692

7,938

8,200

2.5%

4.4%

Electronic shopping & mail-order houses

4541

4,143

4,242

4,351

4,639

5,015

5,368

5,762

6,178

6,617

7,081

7,501

7,927

5.3%

6.6%

Gasoline stations with convenience stores
Discount or mass merch. dept stores (excl.
leased depts)

447110

4,073

4,075

4,061

4,197

4,374

4,540

4,724

4,914

5,111

5,374

5,565

5,766

2.2%

4.1%

452112

2,744

2,758

2,724

2,789

2,839

2,877

2,914

2,963

3,031

3,099

3,160

3,223

1.0%

2.0%

Wholesalers

42

1,911

1,951

1,946

2,034

2,129

2,189

2,254

2,306

2,368

2,444

2,511

2,588

2.8%

2.8%

All other general merchandise stores

452990

813

823

816

823

870

916

964

1,016

1,074

1,135

1,180

1,226

2.4%

4.9%

Lawn & garden equipment & supplies stores

4442

646

635

628

646

671

693

715

738

763

789

804

818

1.4%

2.7%

Fuel dealers

45431

487

474

471

473

491

511

533

554

576

600

623

648

0.9%

4.0%

Hardware stores

444130

236

231

229

236

240

243

246

249

253

256

261

266

0.6%

1.6%

Home centers

444110

102

102

101

103

105

107

108

109

111

113

115

117

0.9%

1.6%

Convenience stores

445120

90

89

88

91

95

99

104

108

113

118

123

128

2.1%

4.3%

Others

436

442

440

448

459

469

480

493

507

522

538

555

1.5%

2.9%

Total Retail

Various

66,723

66,446

66,065

69,429

73,630

76,551

79,558

82,724

86,391

90,457

93,490

96,636

2.8%

4.0%

Retail Share of Total Market

32.1%

31.9%

32.1%

32.6%

33.0%

33.1%

33.4%

33.5%

33.7%

33.8%

33.9%

34.0%

Independent Dollar Share of Total Market

$140,632

2 .9%

3 .6%

Independent Percent Share of Total
Market

$141,800 $142,176 $149,200 $156,917 $162,262 $167,530 $173,194 $179,897 $187,996 $193,820 $199,963

67 .6%

New Car Dealers

441110

Other motor vehicle dealers

4412

Used Car Dealers

441120

68 .0%

69 .1%

70 .0%

70 .2%

70 .2%

70 .3%

70 .2%

70 .2%

70 .3%

70 .3%

70 .3%

61,316

60,591

57,434

57,758

59,881

62,153

63,807

66,106

68,632

71,434

73,463

75,749

0.3%

3.5%

4,262

4,461

4,420

4,559

4,765

4,983

5,223

5,473

5,751

6,048

6,271

6,499

3.2%

4.5%

1,663

1,758

1,812

1,834

1,859

1,888

1,931

1,981

2,023

2,069

1.4%

2.2%

$63,517 $64,074 $66,459 $68,971 $70,889 $73,467 $76,313 $79,463 $81,756 $84,316

0.5%

3.5%

2.1%

3.6%

1,708

1,677

Total Dealer

$67,286

$66,729

Dealer Share of Total Market

32 .4%

32 .0%

207,919

208,529

Total Auto Care Industry Sales
Year/Year Percent Change
Notes:

0 .3%

30 .9%

30 .0%

29 .8%

29 .8%

29 .7%

29 .8%

29 .8%

29 .7%

29 .7%

29 .7%

205,693 213,274 223,376 231,232 238,419 246,662 256,210 267,459 275,576 284,279
-1 .4%

3 .7%

4 .7%

3 .5%

3 .1%

3 .5%

3 .9%

4 .4%

3 .0%

3 .2%

# Estimate
* Forecast
(**) Auto Parts and Accessories Stores sales include those sales to the general public.

Source: Auto Care Association / AASA Channel Forecast model.
2016 Digital Auto Care Factbook Copyright © 2015 Auto Care Association

17
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016
