Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016 - (Page 14)

INTRODUCTION TO THE CHANNEL FORECAST MODEL Background The Channel Forecast Model is the outgrowth of an earlier project started some years ago by the Auto Care Association (formerly AAIA) Market Research Committee. The project consultant is IHS (formerly Global Insight) which has been managing the project since 2007. IHS is considered a leader in economic and financial analysis, forecasting, and market intelligence for more than 40 years (www.ihs.com). This model uses the 1997, 2002 and 2007 Economic Census data to determine the present (nominal) dollar value of sales at end user prices for each of the automotive aftermarket's channels of distribution and totals the channels to provide a complete market overview. The automotive aftermarket, as it is defined for this project, consists of all non-warranty, retail sales of parts, accessories, and services for light vehicles. Included are retail sales of paint, tools and equipment for repairs (including for collision repair), trim and interior products, vehicle restorations, replacement glass and tires. The automotive segment of the aftermarket includes the replacement parts, accessories, chemicals, tires and nonwarranty service for passenger cars and light trucks. The model accounts for the potential double-counting of revenue by including only those sales that are classified as sales made to the general public. Using the 2007 Economic Census data as a base, the model: * Estimates values of Economic Census results for those years that are not covered by the report, and * Forecast out, through 2018, the values of the census data. Included in the estimated/forecasted values referenced above are a set of 41 motor vehicle aftermarket's channels of distribution agreed upon for use as the set of NAICS subcategories. These 41 channels are all the categories from the Census that displayed automotive sales. The three main sources of data used as inputs in the model are: (1) U.S. Economic Census data; (2) Industrial Marketing Research Inc.; (3) IHS Inc. (for economic data as well as industry data through its recent acquisition of R.L. Polk). (1) Baseline data for this model are the 1997, 2002 and 2007 Economic Census data. The Census survey provides information on sales by both product line and NAICS codes, all of which are released every five years. Due to the volume of information collected, it takes the Census Bureau approximately four years to release the data following the reporting year. As a result of this, the results from the 2012 Economic Census are unlikely to be incorporated into the model until 2016 at the earliest, possibly 2017. (2) Industrial Marketing Research (IMR) provides data from their Continuing Consumer Auto Maintenance Survey, which provides replacement rate data broken out by 27 ML/RL (product codes) for 10 types of vehicles, by age. This survey is conducted at the end of each quarter and includes 100,000 participants and approximately 187,000 vehicles, annually. (3) IHS data are a combination of proprietary data and macroeconomic data that are relevant to the automotive aftermarket industry and include unit sales of cars and light trucks, a variety of CPI indices, retail sales for different automotive related channels, etc. These data are used as the initial demand driver within the model and act as the primary forecast drivers. R. L. Polk, now part of IHS, provides Auto Care Association with vehicle registration (parc data) each year. These data lag by one year, but are not a result of sampling. The data are broken into 10 vehicle classes and vintage. 14 2016 Digital Auto Care Factbook Copyright © 2015 Auto Care Association http://www.ihs.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016

Auto Care Association Market Intelligence Committee
Economic Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
National Debt
Aftermarket Dynamics
Industry Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
What Do Our Members Think?
BCI Summary
State of the Auto Care Industry
U.S. Motor Vehicle Auto Care Industry
Introduction to the Channel Forecast Model
2014 to 2018 Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Auto Care Industry
Auto Care Sales History and Forecast 2007 to 2018
Auto Care Sales by Distribution Channel
Auto Care Segmentation
Auto Care Service and Retail Outlets
Auto Care Service and Retail Outlet Analysis
Program Distribution Summary
Retail Distribution Summary
e-Tailing
Financial Benchmarks
Financial Profiles of Select Auto Care Companies
Select Auto Care Transactions
Auto Care Industry
Consumer Profile
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Top 10 Replacement Rate Categories By Vehicle Age
Auto Care Industry Segments
Medium And Heavy Duty Truck Industry
Sales of Replacement Tires
Tool and Equipment
Paint, Body and Equipment
BodyShop Business Industry Profile: 2013-14
Vehicle Registrations and Usage
U.S. New Motor Vehicle Registrations
Top 10 Light Vehicle Registrations
U.S. Total Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Miles Driven vs. Gasoline Affordability
Gasoline Affordability and Fuel Consumption
Crude Oil and Diesel Fuel Costs
State Summary Statistics
State Summary Statistics
Global Auto Care Industry
Global Economic and Automotive Data
U. S. Trade Data for Selected Motor Vehicle Products
U. S. Trade Data By Country
Canadian Auto Care Industry
Mexican Auto Care Industry
Chinese Auto Care Industry
Glossary and Reference
Glossary and Terms
NAICS Definitions
Auto Care Data Resources
Auto Care Data Resources
Auto Care Association Market Intelligence
Auto Care Association Market Intelligence
Auto Care Association – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Auto Care Industry Data

Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016