Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 2

Key Economic Indicators
U.S. current gross domestic product should total $19.8 trillion in 2018 complimenting a 3.62 percent compounded annual growth
rate (CAGR) from 2014 - 2017. U.S. real domestic product is expected to total $17.5 trillion in 2018 reflecting a 2.21 percent CAGR
during the 2014 - 2017 period. Since the economic recovery began in 2009, the U.S. economy has realized favorable changes in key
economic data as noted in the chart below. Some of the most notable changes in the 3-year compounded growth rates occurred in
motor vehicle parts manufacturing (3.9 percent), retail sales (3.04 percent) and disposable income (3.33 percent).
Just like last year's report, the U.S. dollar in 2017 has increased favorably against most of the major currencies and is expected to
remain strong in 2018. The U.S. national debt continues to grow in real and nominal terms presenting a burden to the U.S. taxpayers
and hinders economic growth. A strengthening U.S. dollar in the second half of 2017 and into 2018 reduces the cost of foreign
imports ranging from oil and steel to minerals and automobiles. However, a more valuable U.S. dollar means that many U.S. exports
will cost more to purchase. From its Great Recession low of below 50 in 2009, consumer confidence reached 123.1 in December
2017 and is expected to continue trending upward in 2018 to 129.
This summary was prepared by Dr. Timothy G. Nash, Vice President and Director of the McNair Center at Northwood University.

Key Economic Indicators (Billions of chained 2009 Dollars adjusted for inflation, unless otherwise noted)
Gross Domestic Product and Components
Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Nominal
Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Real
Inflation Rate
U.S. National Debt (Nominal)
U.S. National Debt as a Percent of GDP
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Services
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Expenditures (Billions of Current Dollars)
Trade Balance
Total Exports
Total Imports
Interest Rates (Change in points )1
Prime Rate
Federal Funds Rate
Manufacturing Indicators
Industrial Production Indexes (2002 = 100)1
Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing (average)
Tire Manufacturing (average, 2012 = 100)
Purchasing Managers Index (average)2
Consumer Information
Retail Sales (Billions of Current Dollars)3
Disposable Personal Income (Billions of Current Dollars)
Civilian Unemployment Rate (Change in points)4
Consumer Confidence Index (for December)5
Housing Starts (Thousands of Units)3
Prices4
Producer Price Indexes
Total Manufacturing (Dec. 1984 = 100)
Diesel Fuel (June 1985 = 100)
Consumer Price Indexes (1982-84 = 100)
All Items
Motor Vehicle Parts and Equipment
Exchange Rates (Units per U.S. Dollar)1
Broad Index (Jan. 1997 = 100)
Canada - Dollar
China - Yuan
European Union - Euro (U.S. Dollars per Currency Unit)
Japan - Yen
Mexico - Peso
Notes:

2

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
Estimate

$17,427.6
$16,013.3
0.8%
$18,141.4
104.1%
$11,863.7
$1,296.4
$2,674.1
$7,893.2
$2,817.3
$3,968.6
-$490.3
$2,375.9
$2,866.2

$18,120.7
$16,471.5
0.7%
$18,922.2
104.4%
$12,332.3
$1,367.1
$2,666.0
$8,299.1
$2,879.2
$4,061.5
-$500.4
$2,263.9
$2,764.4

$18,624.5
$16,716.2
2.1%
$19,976.8
107.3%
$12,820.7
$1,411.0
$2,710.4
$8,699.3
$2,905.7
$4,210.1
-$504.8
$2,208.1
$2,712.9

$19,390.6
$17,096.2
2.1%
$20,492.7
105.7%
$13,395.5
$1,473.8
$2,821.5
$9,100.2
$3,011.1
$4,354.8
-$568.4
$2,331.6
$2,900.0

$19,875.4
$17,523.6
2.4%
$21,664.0
106.0%
$13,917.4
$1,676.0
$2,931.20
$9,310.20
$3,124.4
$4,417.0
-$514.5
$2,401.5
$2,916.0

3.62%
2.21%
1.63%
4.15%
0.51%
4.13%
4.37%
1.80%
4.86%
2.24%
3.14%
5.05%
-0.63%
0.39%

±
±
±
¯
¯
±
¿
¿
¿
¿
¯
¯
¿
¯

3.25%
0.09%

3.26%
0.13%

3.51%
0.39%

4.50%
1.00%

5.00%
1.25%

11.46%
123.14%

¿
¿

114.4
95.5
55.6

124.8
96.7
51.4

128.3
90.0
51.5

128.3
87.9
57.5

128.4
87.5
58.0

3.90%
-2.71%
1.15%

¿
±
±

$4,639
$13,032.6
6.2%
93.1
1003

$4,727
$13,615.0
5.3%
97.8
1112

$4,863
$13,968.6
4.9%
113.7
1174

$5,075
$14,379.0
4.4%
123.1
1203

$5,325
$14,844.0
4.1%
129
1213

3.04%
3.33%
-10.80%
9.76%
6.25%

¿
¿
¿
¿
±

195.5
299.6

185.5
181.3

181.9
143.5

188.3
185.7

194.5
210.5

-1.24%
-14.74%

±
±

236.7
144.8

237.0
144.2

240.0
143.6

245.1
143.0

252.1
144.0

1.17%
-0.41%

±
±

104.03
1.10
6.16
1.33
105.74
13.30

117.06
1.28
6.28
1.11
121.05
15.87

122.48
1.32
6.64
1.11
108.66
18.67

122.13
1.30
6.76
1.13
112.10
18.88

122.60
1.31
6.40
1.21
110.00
18.92

5.49%
5.55%
3.12%
-5.28%
1.97%
12.39%

¿
¿
¯
±
¿
¿

na = not available. Historical data have been revised.
¿ = Favorable condition for motor vehicle aftermarket
± = Indeterminate trend - should monitor
¯ = Unfavorable condition for motor vehicle aftermarket

CAGR
(2014-2017)

Assessment

Sources: Auto Care Association's Industry Indicators Report, U.S. Department of Commerce
1
4
Federal Reserve Board
U.S. Department of Labor
2
5
Institute for Supply Management
The Conference Board
3
U.S. Census Bureau

The 2019 Digital Factbook is Copyright © 2019 Auto Care Association and/or its licensor. 
All other rights reserved.  Use of the 2019 Digital Factbook is subject to compliance with the Legal Terms and Conditions found on page 119 of this report.



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019

Introductory Page
Letter from Bill Hanvey, President/CEO
Auto Care Association Legal Terms and Conditions
Market Intelligence Committee
Economic Indicators (section)
Key Economic Indicators
National Debt
Industry Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
What Do Our Members Think? / Key Issues
BCI/ECI Summary
U.S. Motor Vehicle Auto Care Industry (section)
Introduction to the Channel Forecast Model
2016 to 2021 Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Auto Care Industry
Auto Care Industry Sales History and Forecast
Auto Care Sales by Distribution Channel
Auto Care Segmentation
Auto Care Service and Retail Outlets
Auto Care Service and Retail Outlet Analysis
Program Distribution Overview
Retail Distribution Overview
Financial Benchmarks (section)
Financial Profiles of Select Auto Care Companies
Select Auto Care Transactions
Auto Care Industry (section)
Consumer Profile
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Top 10 Replacement Rate Categories By Vehicle Age
Auto Care Industry Segments (section)
Medium And Heavy Duty Truck Industry
Sales of Replacement Tires
Tool and Equipment
Paint, Body and Equipment
Vehicle Registrations and Usage (section)
U.S. New Motor Vehicle Registrations
Top 10 Light Vehicle Registrations
U.S. Total Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Miles Driven and Vehicle Service Contracts
Gasoline Affordability and Fuel Consumption
Crude Oil and Diesel Fuel Costs
State Summary Statistics (section)
State Summary Statistics tables
Global Auto Care Industry (section)
Aftermarket Dynamics
U.S. Trade Data By Country
Global Vehicle Registrations By Country
Global Economic and Automotive Data
U.S. Trade Data for Selected Motor Vehicle Products
Canadian Auto Care Industry
Mexican Auto Care Industry Report
Chinese Auto Care Industry
Glossary and Reference (section)
Glossary and Terms
NAICS Definitions
Auto Care Data Resources
Auto Care Association Market Intelligence (section)
Auto Care Association Market Intelligence
Auto Care Association – Lang Market Comparison (section)
Harmonization of Auto Care Industry Data
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Introductory Page
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - I
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Letter from Bill Hanvey, President/CEO
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - III
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Market Intelligence Committee
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Economic Indicators (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Key Economic Indicators
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - National Debt
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Industry Employment
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Technician Employment and Wages
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - What Do Our Members Think? / Key Issues
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - BCI/ECI Summary
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 8
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - U.S. Motor Vehicle Auto Care Industry (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Introduction to the Channel Forecast Model
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 2016 to 2021 Forecast Assumptions
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - U.S. Motor Vehicle Auto Care Industry
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Industry Sales History and Forecast
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Sales by Distribution Channel
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Segmentation
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Service and Retail Outlets
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Service and Retail Outlet Analysis
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Program Distribution Overview
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Retail Distribution Overview
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 20
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Financial Benchmarks (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Financial Profiles of Select Auto Care Companies
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 23
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 24
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 25
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 26
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 27
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 28
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 29
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Select Auto Care Transactions
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 31
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 32
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 33
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 34
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 35
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 36
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 37
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 38
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 39
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 40
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Industry (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Consumer Profile
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 43
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 44
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 45
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 46
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 47
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Top 10 Replacement Rate Categories By Vehicle Age
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 50
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Industry Segments (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Medium And Heavy Duty Truck Industry
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Sales of Replacement Tires
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Tool and Equipment
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Paint, Body and Equipment
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 56
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 57
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 58
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Vehicle Registrations and Usage (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - U.S. New Motor Vehicle Registrations
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Top 10 Light Vehicle Registrations
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - U.S. Total Motor Vehicle Population
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 63
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 64
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Hybrid Vehicles
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 66
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 67
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Vehicle Operating Costs
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Miles Driven and Vehicle Service Contracts
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - BCI/ECI Summary
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Crude Oil and Diesel Fuel Costs
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - BCI/ECI Summary
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - State Summary Statistics (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - State Summary Statistics tables
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 75
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 76
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - BCI/ECI Summary
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 78
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Global Auto Care Industry (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Aftermarket Dynamics
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 81
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - U.S. Trade Data By Country
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Global Vehicle Registrations By Country
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Global Economic and Automotive Data
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 85
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 86
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 87
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - U.S. Trade Data for Selected Motor Vehicle Products
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 89
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 90
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 91
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 92
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Canadian Auto Care Industry
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 94
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 95
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Mexican Auto Care Industry Report
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 97
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Chinese Auto Care Industry
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 99
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 100
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Glossary and Reference (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Glossary and Terms
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 103
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 104
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 105
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - NAICS Definitions
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Data Resources
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 108
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 109
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 110
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Association Market Intelligence (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Association Market Intelligence
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 113
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 114
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 115
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - 116
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Association – Lang Market Comparison (section)
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Harmonization of Auto Care Industry Data
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Auto Care Association Legal Terms and Conditions
Digital Auto Care Factbook 2019 - Cover4
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