Canadian Transit Forum - February/March 2015 / février/mars 2015 - (Page 22)

I n d u s t r y Tr e n d s MEMBER FUNDED RESEARCH: A NEW DEMAND FORECASTING TOOL FOR SPECIALIZED TRANSIT CRYSTAL BALL FOR CANADIAN TRANSIT SYSTEMS By Lauren Rudko, Technical Services Department, CUTA the ability for long range forecasting, and leave systems wondering about the impact of future demands on their operations and finances. Understanding individual transit members' need to forecast long-term demand for specialized services, CUTA's Accessible Transit Committee (ATC) developed a project to build a specialized transit forecasting demand tool. The ATC solicited member funding and lead the formation of a project Steering Committee, continued on page 24 ESTIMATION OF ESTIMATION OF SPECIALIZED TRANSIT DEMAND / SPECIALIZ ESTIMATION ADAPTÉ ESTIMATION DE LA DEMANDE EN TRANSPORTDE LA DEMAND OUTPUTS/SORTIES ESTIMATION OF CUSTOMERS / ESTIMATION DE LA CLIENTÈLE ESTIMATION OF CUSTOMERS / ESTIMATION DE LA CLIENTÈLE The Société de transport de Montréal's (STM) specialized transit services have experienced significant growth in the last few years, straining the system's budget. This growth has also highlighted the limitations of their current model for forecasting demand for services, which only looks ahead by 12 months. Alain Rochon, the STM's Chief of Planning, Projects and Strategic affairs, is struggling to manage long term planning given the time limits of the current model. Although his system is much smaller than Montréal's, Tony D'Alessandro, Transit Coordinator for the Town of Milton, also struggles to find a better way to forecast the specialized transit needs of his community. All of Milton's specialized transit needs are filled by taxis, but as the community ages, Tony is aware that it will reach a point where a shift to larger vehicles might be needed. Target PopulaƟon Rate / Taux de la populaƟon ciblée OUTPUTS/SORTIES INPUTS/ENTRÉES Total PopulaƟon in Service Area / PopulaƟon totale de la région desservie Target PopulaƟon Rate / Target PopulaƟon Rate / Taux de la populaƟon ciblée Taux de la populaƟon ciblée 22 F e b r u a r y | f é v r i e r 2 0 15 ESTIMATION OF TRIPS / ESTIMATION DES DÉPLACEMENTS ESTIMATION OF TRIPS / ESTIMATION DES DÉPLACEMENTS WITH CANADA'S DEMAND FOR accessible transit services increasing, transit systems Persons Applying for Specialized Transit / Personnes Persons Market PenetraƟon Rate / need to plan better in order to meet current Applying for Specialized Transit / Personnes faisant une demande de transport adapté faisant une demande de transport adapté Taux de pénétraƟon du marché demand and prepare for future demand. This is especially true when senior citizens make up Canada's fastest growing population and the demand for specialized transit continues to Registrants / MembresTaux d'amissibilté Registrants / Membres inscrits Elgibility Rate / inscrits increase. Montreal and Milton have both seen substantial increases in ridership with a 43% and 530% increase respectively since 2008. Percentage of AcƟve Registrants / On the national level, more than 18,600,000 AcƟve Registrants / Membres inscrits AcƟve Registrants / Membres inscrits acƟfs acƟfs Pourcentage des membres inscrits acƟfs specialized passenger trips were taken in Canada in 2013, which marks a 20% increase since 2008. In addition, demand for specialTotal Trip Requests / Total Trip Requests / Trip Request Rate / ized transit services is growing more quickly Demandes de déplacements totales Demandes de déplacements totales Taux de demandes de déplacements than conventional accessible transit services. To accurately project the future needs of their communities, transit systems are looking to understand what other systems are doing, Booked Trips / Déplacements réservés Booked Trips / Déplacements réservés Denial Rate / Taux de refus and are seeking more information on the incidence of disability. A better long-term understanding will inform capacity needs and service CancellaƟon and No-show Rate / design considerations, as well as supportingPassenger Trips / Déplacements passagers Passenger Trips / Déplacements passagers Taux ďannulaƟons ou de défecƟons innovative approaches to meet the needs of persons with disabilities. Current tools lack

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Canadian Transit Forum - February/March 2015 / février/mars 2015

Message from the President: Civic Engagement – the Key to Political Profile
Message du président : L’engagement civique – la clé pour une dimension politique
The Mississauga Transitway – Making it Faster and Easier to Travel Across the City
Le Mississauga Transitway – Parcourir la ville plus rapidement et plus facilement
Greening Transit
Un transport collectif écologique
Elevating the Customer Experience: Collecting the Voice of the Customer
Rehausser l’expérience client en recueillant la Voix du client
Industry Trends: Member Funded Research: A New Demand Forecasting Tool for Specialized Transit
Tendances du secteur : Recherche financée par les membres : une nouvelle demande pour outil de prévision du transport adapté
Marketing in Transportation – Air Canada and the STM
Le marketing en transport – Air Canada et la STM
Index of Advertisers
Index des annonceurs

Canadian Transit Forum - February/March 2015 / février/mars 2015