Jetrader - Summer 2017 - 20

process in the next four months with an
additional order backlog of 48 aircraft.

MD80
Like the CRJ, AEI undertook a speculative conversion program for the MD80 with
the first delivery in 2013. On paper, the
aircraft makes a productive freighter with
low feedstock and operating costs coupled
with a payload greater than the 737-300SF.
Despite plentiful feedstock, the program
has failed to catch on with only eight
conversions completed and an additional

two in progress for operators in Alaska and
Mexico. A modest number of additional
aircraft are likely to be converted.

737 Classic
The narrowbody replacement requirement
mentioned previously has largely been filled
by the conversion of 737-300s and -400s.
Since the end of 2009 through March 2017,
168 737 Classics have been converted at
an average of 27 units per year. Feedstock
pricing initially drove operators to consider
the smaller -300; however as -400 values fell

in the past few years, operators switched to
the -400 with two additional pallet positions and little additional cost. As a result,
only 53 300s were converted as opposed
to 115 -400s. Despite a combined backlog
at the two providers (AEI and Pemco) of
35-40 aircraft, the supply of good -400
conversion candidates is rapidly dwindling,
and 737 Classic conversions are expected
to wind down in the early 2020s.

737-800
The logical replacement for the 737
Classic is the 737-800 - a successor aircraft with one additional pallet position
versus the -400 and improved operating
economics. AEI was the first to announce
a program with an order for GECAS, but this
was quickly followed by Boeing and Israel
Aircraft Industries (IAI) announcing their
own programs. AEI is projected to deliver
its first conversion by the end of 2017.
Currently 737-800 passenger aircraft values
are too high to produce a cost-effective
freighter despite its improved operating
economics versus the 737 Classic. When the
737 MAX reaches a mature production rate,
737-800 values should begin to fall, stimulating demand for converted freighters.
Conversion programs should reach sustainable production rates by 2021 or earlier.

A321-200
The ST Aerospace/EFW consortium is currently developing an A321-200 freighter
conversion using engineering data provided by Airbus. The aircraft will be available with as many as 14 main deck pallet
positions, a payload up to 60,000 pounds
(later delivery aircraft) and a range of 2,300
nautical miles. These performance characteristics position it between the 737-800SF
and the 757PCF. Although getting a later
start than the 737-800SF, it has advantages in feedstock pricing and unit cost
economics that will make it an effective
competitor. However, this will be the first
Airbus narrowbody freighter and will need
a compelling argument to replace aircraft
with existing Boeing operators. Program
certification is projected for 2018.

757
The 757 converted freighter has been a
solid success with 238 aircraft converted,
a backlog of 36 with conversions available
primarily from two vendors - Precision
20 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
31/03/17

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http://www.precisionaircraft.com http://www.precisionaircraft.com

Jetrader - Summer 2017

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