Jetrader - Fall 2014 - (Page 53)

appraisal Airbus A321-200 Douglas B. Kelly Senior Vice President - Asset Valuation ISTAT Certified Senior Appraiser AVITAS, Inc. Tel: +1 703-476-2300 doug.kelly@avitas.com Overview and Background operator base with 70 operators and 832 aircraft in service. The A321-200 has a backlog comprising of 502 firm orders and no aircraft were reported as being in storage. Availability is low with only 11 aircraft being advertised for sale or lease, which represents only 1.3 percent of the in-service fleet. The A321‑200 has a strong presence in Europe and Asia/Pacific and a growing presence in North America. For the A321-200, the outlook is generally very optimistic given the established operator base and remaining backlog of firm orders. As the market continues to recover, the aircraft is well-positioned to take advantage of improving conditions and continues to benefit from full technical commonality with its smaller siblings. With the first A320neo ready for Airbus' flight-test program (MSN 6101) in July 2014, attention is focused on what impact there is likely to be on the existing range of aircraft in the A320 family. However, service entry of the A320neo is not expected until fourth quarter 2015 with that of the A321neo around a year later. As of April 2014, there were 591 firm orders among 23 customers for the A321neo. The A321 was the second model to be produced in the A320 family. The A321-100, the initial variant of the A321, is a stretched derivative of the A320-200 that has approximately 25 percent more seating capacity (around 185 seats) at the sacrifice of 20 percent in range. The aircraft was launched in November 1989 and received initial certification in late 1993. Delivery to launch customer Lufthansa occurred in January 1994 with the aircraft entering revenue service in March 1994. However, like the A320-100, being an initial variant of a new model, the A321-100 was also eventually upstaged by its more capable sibling, the A321-200. As a result, it had a short production run of just nine years that resulted in fewer than 100 units being produced. The A321-100 was offered with two different power plants, the CFM56 or the V2500. The A321-200, the more capable A321 variant, was launched in April 1995, first flew in December 1996 and was delivered to Monarch Airlines in April 1997. The main differences between the A321-100 and the A321-200 are a reinforced structure to allow for increased design weights, higher thrust engines and the provisioning for optional additional center fuel tanks (ACTs). The enhancements successfully recaptured the 600 nautical miles of range lost as a result of the initial stretch from the A320, enabling the aircraft to fly 3,000 nautical miles with maximum passengers. Like the earlier variant, the A321-200 is also offered with two different power plants, the CFM56 and V2500. Regional Distribution Data World Region Current and Future Market Outlook AVITAS believes that the market for the A321-200 is stable and strengthening. The aircraft enjoys a large and diversified In Service Firm Orders Africa/Middle East Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/Caribbean North America Total 46 305 338 18 125 832 15 144 96 52 195 502 Airbus A321-200 Values as of March 2014, US$ million Year of Build Current Market Value 2014 Base Value Future Base Values at 1.5% Inflation 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 13.9 16.2 18.8 22.0 25.9 30.4 34.9 40.1 46.7 53.8 14.2 16.5 19.1 22.4 26.5 31.0 35.6 40.9 47.1 53.8 13.3 15.6 18.1 20.9 24.7 29.2 33.8 38.6 44.4 50.3 12.4 14.6 17.0 19.7 23.1 27.3 32.0 36.5 41.9 47.3 11.6 13.7 16.0 18.6 21.6 25.5 30.0 34.6 39.5 44.6 10.7 12.8 15.1 17.5 20.3 23.8 28.1 32.8 37.4 41.9 9.9 11.9 14.1 16.5 19.2 22.2 26.3 30.8 35.4 39.4 9.1 11.1 13.2 15.5 18.1 20.9 24.5 28.8 33.5 37.2 8.3 10.2 12.3 14.6 17.0 19.7 22.9 26.9 31.4 35.0 7.5 9.4 11.4 13.6 16.0 18.6 21.6 25.1 29.3 33.0 6.8 8.5 10.5 12.7 15.0 17.5 20.3 23.4 27.3 30.7 6.1 7.7 9.6 11.7 14.0 16.5 19.2 22.0 25.5 28.6 The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Aircraft specification: IAE V2533-A5 SelectOne, 196,200 lbs MTOW Maintenance assumption: new aircraft is full-life transitioning to half-life at four years old. Jetrader  *  Fall 2014 53

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Fall 2014

A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Reach for the Stars
Beauty Contest
Boeing’s Current Market Outlook for 2014
Aircraft Recyclers Debate the Coming ‘Tsunami’ of Retired Aircraft
Engine Support Plans Shift Market
The Second Life of Aircraft: Does It Still Exist?
Restructuring Aircraft Leases in Bankruptcy
Aviation History
Aircraft Appraisals
ISTAT Foundation
Advertiser.com
Advertiser Index

Jetrader - Fall 2014

http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0418
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0318
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTR/ISTR0018
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0218
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0118
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0417
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0317
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTR/ISTR0017
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0217
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0117
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0416
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0316
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTR/ISTR0016
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0216
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0116
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0415
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0315
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTR/ISTR0015
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0215
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0115
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0414
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0314
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTR/ISTR0014
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0214
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0114
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0613
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTR/ISTR0013
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0513
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0413
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0313
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0213
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0113
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0612
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0512
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTR0012
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0412
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0312
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0212
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTR0011
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0112
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0611
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0511
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0411
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0311
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0211
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0111
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0610
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0510
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0410
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0310
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0210
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0110
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0609
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0509
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0409
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0309
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0209
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0109
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0608
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0508
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0408
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0308
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/ISTS0208
http://www.nxtbookMEDIA.com