Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 64

appraisal Boeing 747-400 Engine Allocation Engine Allocation John Edwards, ISTAT Certified Appraiser SVP Technical Sky Leasing Tel: (415) 655-5034 jedwards@skyleasing.com 747-400 (RR) 747-400 25% (RR) 25% 747-400 (GE) 747-400 37% (GE) 37% Basic Specs (excludes 747-400ER and Freighters) 747-400 (P&W) 747-400 38%(P&W) 38% MTW- 878,000 lbs. (398,250 kg) at Highest Optional Weight MTOW875,000 lbs. (396,890 kg) at Highest Optional Weight MLW652,000 lbs. (295,740 kg) at Highest Optional Weight OEW404,600 lbs. (183,520 kg) Fuel Capacity- 57,285 US-Gal (216,840 l) Length231 feet, 10 inches (70.66 m) Wingspan211 feet, 5 in (64.44 m) without fuel Typical Pax416 (23 F, 78 B, 315 Y) Range6075-7285 n-mi (11,250-13,490 km) Background The Boeing 747-400 entered service with Northwest Airlines in 1989 and continued production until 2005 (Passenger) and 2009 (Freighter). A total of 694 units were built. Among power-plant, avionics and structural enhancements, this four-engine aircraft improved on earlier variants (747-100, -200, and -300) by providing airlines with a two-crew-member glass flight deck. Three engine options were offered by Boeing, which included the Rolls Royce RB211-524, Pratt & Whitney PW4000 and General Electric CF6-80C2. The aircraft is easily recognizable at major worldwide airports notably by the extended upper deck and six-foot winglets. Coupled with today's historically low fuel prices and given the large capacity main deck and lower hold capability, the 747-400 remains relevant on high density long-haul routes when evaluated on cost-per-seat basis. In 2008, Boeing superseded the -400 with a third generation evolution called 747-8. Market Outlook The market outlook for this aircraft has softened as evidenced by an increased ratio of freighter-to-passenger variants (1.3:1.0), and significant reduction of in-service aircraft to 62 percent of the 694 originally built. Competing platforms such as Boeing's 777-300ER and 787-9 and Airbus' A350-900 and A330-300ER continue to displace the aging 747-400 fleet; they offer airlines a variety of payload and range options while reducing trip cost. In some instances, the commonality with 767 permits cross utilization of the CF6-80C2, PW4000 and RB211-524 engines. This preserves values as a market for spare engines remains active. As a four-engine aircraft is parked and dismantled, the impact on the spares market is large due to increased supply. Many operators and owners of these engines choose to purchase a "stub-life" engine with remaining green time instead of inducting into performance restoration/ overhaul shop visit. Current Fleet Review of the Ascend-Fleets database illustrates a total of 432 active 747-400s, which includes a combination of all configurations (passenger, combi and freighter) contrasted with 85 units in storage. With 517 registered aircraft, 237 passenger -400s remain, of which 187 are in active service and 50 are parked. Six airlines operate 100 of the 747-400s, with legacy carriers British Airways, United Airlines and Lufthansa flying a combined total of 73. Each of the top three operators utilize a different engine, with Rolls-Royce fitted to British Airways, Pratt & Whitney assigned to the United fleet and Lufthansa operating the CF6-80C2. Thai Airways, Delta Air Lines and Virgin Atlantic Airways amass the next 27 in-service 747-400s. European operators dominate the landscape with 36 percent of the 747-400 passenger fleet. Disclaimer The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent thirdparty sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. August 2016 Appraisal Values: Boeing 747-400, PW4056-3, CF6-80C2B1F (US$ Million) DOM Part Out Valuation CMV BV 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 19891994 8.59 1995 1996 1997 1998 9.70 11.58 12.33 13.07 12.78 11.61 10.47 9.42 8.40 7.46 13.33 12.13 10.96 9.88 8.83 7.86 6.90 14.62 13.39 12.19 11.02 9.95 8.90 7.89 6.95 16.06 14.74 13.46 12.27 11.10 9.98 8.93 7.92 7.00 1999 2000 2001 13.93 14.84 15.85 Base Values inflated at 2% per annum 17.55 19.14 20.85 16.20 17.76 19.38 14.88 16.36 17.94 13.60 15.00 16.54 12.41 13.71 15.18 11.20 12.52 13.89 10.07 11.31 12.64 9.03 10.18 11.43 8.02 9.08 10.30 7.05 8.07 9.20 7.10 8.14 7.15 2002 2003 2004 2005 16.95 18.10 19.27 20.54 22.57 21.11 19.59 18.15 16.75 15.37 14.09 12.84 11.62 10.44 9.34 8.27 7.20 24.50 22.92 21.41 19.88 18.43 16.97 15.59 14.25 12.99 11.77 10.58 9.43 8.36 7.32 6.60 26.62 24.89 23.25 21.73 20.19 18.74 17.27 15.83 14.48 13.22 11.94 10.75 9.59 8.51 7.42 6.65 28.87 27.05 25.32 23.66 22.08 20.53 19.01 17.54 16.09 14.73 13.41 12.12 10.92 9.76 8.63 7.53 6.70 "CMV" - Current Market Value. "BV" = Projected Base Values. BV have been inflated at 2.0 percent per annum. The Base Value of an aircraft assumes its physical condition is average for an aircraft of its type and age and its maintenance time status is at mid-life, mid-time. All values have been determined in accordance with ISTAT definitions of Base Value and Current Market value and relate to a single asset only. 64 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Autumn 2016

A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Q&A: Mike Williams, Jetaire Group
Wish Upon a Star
Sunshine, Rain and Mixed Feelings
ISTAT’s 2016 Farnborough Airshow Chalet and Reception Continue to Achieve Record Attendance
Legal Status of Aircraft Engines and Effects on Financing and Leasing Transactions
Survival of the Fittest
Weathering Economic Gusts: Copa Airlines’ Pedro Heilbron Advocates Flexibility and Smart Growth
5 Places to Visit While Attending the ISTAT Latin America Forum
From the ISTAT Photo Archives
From the Jetrader Editorial Archives
Aviation History
Aircraft Appraisals
ISTAT Foundation
Advertiser Index
Advertiser.com
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - cover1
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - cover2
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 3
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 4
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 5
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 6
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 8
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 9
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 11
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Q&A: Mike Williams, Jetaire Group
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 13
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 14
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 15
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Wish Upon a Star
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 17
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Sunshine, Rain and Mixed Feelings
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 19
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 20
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 21
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 22
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 23
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - ISTAT’s 2016 Farnborough Airshow Chalet and Reception Continue to Achieve Record Attendance
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 25
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 26
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 27
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 28
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 29
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 30
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 31
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Legal Status of Aircraft Engines and Effects on Financing and Leasing Transactions
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 33
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 34
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 35
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 36
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 37
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Survival of the Fittest
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 39
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 40
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 41
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 42
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 43
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Weathering Economic Gusts: Copa Airlines’ Pedro Heilbron Advocates Flexibility and Smart Growth
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 45
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 5 Places to Visit While Attending the ISTAT Latin America Forum
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 47
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 48
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 49
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - From the ISTAT Photo Archives
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 51
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 52
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 53
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - From the Jetrader Editorial Archives
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 55
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 56
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 57
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Aviation History
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 59
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 60
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 61
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 62
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 64
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 65
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 67
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 68
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Advertiser Index
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - Advertiser.com
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - cover3
Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - cover4
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