Jetrader - Autumn 2016 - 64

appraisal

Boeing 747-400

Engine Allocation
Engine Allocation

John Edwards, ISTAT Certified Appraiser
SVP Technical
Sky Leasing
Tel: (415) 655-5034
jedwards@skyleasing.com

747-400 (RR)
747-400
25% (RR)
25%

747-400 (GE)
747-400
37% (GE)
37%

Basic Specs (excludes
747-400ER and Freighters)

747-400 (P&W)
747-400
38%(P&W)
38%

MTW-

878,000 lbs. (398,250 kg)
at Highest Optional Weight
MTOW875,000 lbs. (396,890 kg)
at Highest Optional Weight
MLW652,000 lbs. (295,740 kg)
at Highest Optional Weight
OEW404,600 lbs. (183,520 kg)
Fuel Capacity- 57,285 US-Gal (216,840 l)
Length231 feet, 10 inches (70.66 m)
Wingspan211 feet, 5 in (64.44 m) without fuel
Typical Pax416 (23 F, 78 B, 315 Y)
Range6075-7285 n-mi (11,250-13,490 km)

Background
The Boeing 747-400 entered service with
Northwest Airlines in 1989 and continued
production until 2005 (Passenger) and 2009
(Freighter). A total of 694 units were built.
Among power-plant, avionics and structural
enhancements, this four-engine aircraft
improved on earlier variants (747-100,
-200, and -300) by providing airlines with
a two-crew-member glass flight deck. Three
engine options were offered by Boeing,
which included the Rolls Royce RB211-524,
Pratt & Whitney PW4000 and General
Electric CF6-80C2. The aircraft is easily
recognizable at major worldwide airports
notably by the extended upper deck and
six-foot winglets. Coupled with today's historically low fuel prices and given the large
capacity main deck and lower hold capability, the 747-400 remains relevant on high
density long-haul routes when evaluated
on cost-per-seat basis. In 2008, Boeing
superseded the -400 with a third generation evolution called 747-8.

Market Outlook
The market outlook for this aircraft has
softened as evidenced by an increased
ratio of freighter-to-passenger variants
(1.3:1.0), and significant reduction of
in-service aircraft to 62 percent of the

694 originally built. Competing platforms
such as Boeing's 777-300ER and 787-9 and
Airbus' A350-900 and A330-300ER continue
to displace the aging 747-400 fleet; they
offer airlines a variety of payload and
range options while reducing trip cost. In
some instances, the commonality with 767
permits cross utilization of the CF6-80C2,
PW4000 and RB211-524 engines. This preserves values as a market for spare engines
remains active. As a four-engine aircraft is
parked and dismantled, the impact on the
spares market is large due to increased
supply. Many operators and owners of these
engines choose to purchase a "stub-life"
engine with remaining green time instead
of inducting into performance restoration/
overhaul shop visit.

Current Fleet
Review of the Ascend-Fleets database
illustrates a total of 432 active 747-400s,
which includes a combination of all configurations (passenger, combi and freighter)
contrasted with 85 units in storage. With
517 registered aircraft, 237 passenger -400s
remain, of which 187 are in active service
and 50 are parked. Six airlines operate 100
of the 747-400s, with legacy carriers British

Airways, United Airlines and Lufthansa flying a combined total of 73. Each of the
top three operators utilize a different
engine, with Rolls-Royce fitted to British
Airways, Pratt & Whitney assigned to the
United fleet and Lufthansa operating the
CF6-80C2. Thai Airways, Delta Air Lines
and Virgin Atlantic Airways amass the next
27 in-service 747-400s. European operators
dominate the landscape with 36 percent of
the 747-400 passenger fleet.

Disclaimer
The aircraft values stated herein are the
product and property of independent thirdparty sources, and ISTAT neither approves
nor endorses the information contained
herein or the use thereof for any purpose
whatsoever.

August 2016 Appraisal Values: Boeing 747-400, PW4056-3, CF6-80C2B1F (US$ Million)
DOM

Part Out
Valuation

CMV
BV
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032

19891994
8.59

1995

1996

1997

1998

9.70

11.58

12.33

13.07

12.78
11.61
10.47
9.42
8.40
7.46

13.33
12.13
10.96
9.88
8.83
7.86
6.90

14.62
13.39
12.19
11.02
9.95
8.90
7.89
6.95

16.06
14.74
13.46
12.27
11.10
9.98
8.93
7.92
7.00

1999

2000

2001

13.93
14.84
15.85
Base Values inflated at 2% per annum
17.55
19.14
20.85
16.20
17.76
19.38
14.88
16.36
17.94
13.60
15.00
16.54
12.41
13.71
15.18
11.20
12.52
13.89
10.07
11.31
12.64
9.03
10.18
11.43
8.02
9.08
10.30
7.05
8.07
9.20
7.10
8.14
7.15

2002

2003

2004

2005

16.95

18.10

19.27

20.54

22.57
21.11
19.59
18.15
16.75
15.37
14.09
12.84
11.62
10.44
9.34
8.27
7.20

24.50
22.92
21.41
19.88
18.43
16.97
15.59
14.25
12.99
11.77
10.58
9.43
8.36
7.32
6.60

26.62
24.89
23.25
21.73
20.19
18.74
17.27
15.83
14.48
13.22
11.94
10.75
9.59
8.51
7.42
6.65

28.87
27.05
25.32
23.66
22.08
20.53
19.01
17.54
16.09
14.73
13.41
12.12
10.92
9.76
8.63
7.53
6.70

"CMV" - Current Market Value. "BV" = Projected Base Values. BV have been inflated at 2.0 percent per annum. The Base Value of an aircraft assumes its physical condition is average
for an aircraft of its type and age and its maintenance time status is at mid-life, mid-time. All values have been determined in accordance with ISTAT definitions of Base Value and
Current Market value and relate to a single asset only.

64 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
Jetrader - Autumn 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Autumn 2016
