Jetrader - Winter 2015 - (Page 45)

appraisal Airbus A320-200 Fred Klein, President ISTAT Certified Senior Appraiser Aviation Specialists Group Inc. Tel: 703-736-9700 Fred@ASGroup.aero Overview and, in 2017, will rise to 50. Boeing has also raised its single aisle rate to a current 42 per month and will go to 52 by 2018. Both manufacturers have indicated they could take production rates higher. Demand for new, fuel-efficient jetliners has remained strong even in the face of falling jet fuel prices, but if it should slacken, there is the possibility of oversupply. Second, the A320 is no longer cutting-edge technology. It entered service in 1988 and, while there have been considerable technological advances over the years, airplanes delivered from the late 1980s into the mid-1990s with the V2500-A1 and CFM56-5A engines are very difficult to place and have suffered permanent value impairment. The Airbus A320-200 entered service in 1988, and since that time has built very substantial market share in the active 150seat jetliner segment. In mid-2015, almost 3,700 were in the fleet with more than 250 operators and 800 of the classic CEO model on order. An updated version, the A320neo (new engine option), is scheduled to enter service in late 2015 and its sales have also been very strong. Over the long term, with its strong market penetration, broad user base and large family (the A318/319/321), the A320 should afford its owners average to above-average utility and future value retention. Market Environment Competitive Outlook The reader should, however, note several caveats. First, in the face of very large order books, both Airbus and Boeing have materially increased their single aisle jetliner production rates over the last few years. Airbus's 2012 production rate was 38 single aisle aircraft per month. It currently stands at 42 airplanes per month The third factor is the upcoming introduction of new technology jetliners in the 150-seat market segment. In late 2010, Airbus started offering the A320neo, which had its first flight in September 2014 and is currently scheduled to enter service in late 2015. It will be available with the new generation Pratt and Whitney geared turbofan engine and the CFM LEAP-X engine and promises to offer considerably improved operating economics. Airbus has been aggressively marketing this jetliner and as of mid-2015 had orders for more than 3,000 A320neos. In August 2011, Boeing announced the competing new generation 737MAX, which will also offer substantially improved operating economics and fly the LEAP-X engine. Scheduled for service entry in 2017, about 2,800 MAX orders have been received. These new generation airplanes will have an effect on long-term values of current generation jetliners, but that will probably not occur until the new aircraft have built up some mass in the market. As the first neo deliveries are scheduled for late this year and the MAX not until 2017, that may take some time. After recovering from the downturn in 2008, operating lease rentals for the A320 showed some softening starting in 2011 but have firmed in the last two years and have been stable during 2015. A320-200 Values as of October 2015 Build Year 1989 - 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current Market Value 2.5 5.3 7.2 8.7 9.7 10.8 11.8 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.5 18.0 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.5 27.4 29.4 31.6 33.9 36.3 39.2 43.5 Current Base Value part out 8.1 9.0 9.9 10.8 11.8 12.9 14.0 15.2 16.5 17.9 19.4 20.9 22.5 24.3 26.1 28.1 30.1 32.3 34.6 37.0 39.5 43.5 2016 2017 2018 Future Base Values at 2.0% Inflation 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 7.5 8.3 9.1 10.1 11.0 12.1 13.1 14.3 15.5 16.9 18.3 19.7 21.3 23.0 24.8 26.6 28.6 30.7 32.9 35.3 37.7 41.6 6.8 7.6 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.2 12.3 13.4 14.6 15.9 17.2 18.6 20.1 21.7 23.4 25.3 27.2 29.2 31.3 33.6 36.0 39.8 6.2 7.0 7.8 8.6 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.7 14.9 16.2 17.6 19.0 20.5 22.2 23.9 25.8 27.7 29.8 32.0 34.3 37.9 5.6 6.3 7.1 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.7 11.7 12.8 13.9 15.2 16.5 17.9 19.4 21.0 22.6 24.4 26.3 28.3 30.4 32.6 36.2 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.7 8.6 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.7 13.8 15.1 16.4 17.9 19.4 21.0 22.7 24.5 26.4 29.5 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.3 6.2 7.0 7.8 8.8 9.7 10.7 11.8 12.9 14.1 15.4 16.8 18.2 19.8 21.4 23.1 25.0 28.0 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.3 7.1 8.0 9.0 9.9 10.9 12.0 13.2 14.4 15.7 17.1 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.6 26.5 4.9 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.1 9.0 9.9 10.9 11.9 13.1 14.2 15.5 16.8 18.3 19.8 21.4 23.1 24.9 26.8 28.8 31.0 34.4 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.4 8.3 9.2 10.1 11.1 12.2 13.3 14.5 15.8 17.2 18.6 20.2 21.8 23.5 25.4 27.3 29.4 32.7 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.9 6.7 7.5 8.4 9.3 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.6 14.8 16.1 17.5 19.0 20.6 22.2 24.0 25.9 27.9 31.1 The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Aircraft specifications: Max Takeoff Weight 169,000 lbs, Engines CFM56-5B4 or IAE V2527-A5 Maintenance assumption: new aircraft is full-life transitioning to half-life at four years old. Jetrader  *  Winter 2015 45

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Winter 2015

A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Q&A: John Grant, Senior Analyst, OAG
ISTAT Europe: A High-Flying Success
The ISTAT Quarterback
State of the Regions: Asia & Middle East
Old Guys Rule
ISTAT Foundation Sponsors Herb Kelleher Trophy
Trend Watching
Aviation History
Aircraft Appraisals
ISTAT Foundation
Advertiser.com
Advertiser Index

Jetrader - Winter 2015

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