Jetrader - November/December 2013 - 29

appraisal

Airbus A330-200F
Mark Halsor and Dave Miller
Appraiser Candidates
AISI
Tel: (404) 870 - AISI (2474)
mail@aisi.aero

Background
The Airbus A330-200F program was
launched in 2007 with an initial order of
32 aircraft after several years of robust
air cargo traffic growth. By mid-2008
total orders had reached 77 units. After
the 2008 ﬁnancial crisis intervened, the
A330-200F ﬁrst entered service with Etihad
Airways in 2010, amid a rebound in air
cargo volumes from the depressed levels
in 2008 and 2009. However, orders for
all freighters have remained anemic as
growth prospects in 2010 gave way to air
cargo trafﬁc declines in 2011 and 2012.
Total orders for the A330-200F stand at
44 with 24 aircraft in service by eight
operators. But according to Aviation Week,
the actual backlog of -200F orders has
dwindled to nine. Several operators and
lessors have converted freighter orders
to the more popular A330-200 and -300
passenger aircraft, and it is doubtful that
many orders from 2007 will ever result in
actual freighter deliveries.

The A330-200F is based on the hugely
successful A330 passenger aircraft family
and the A330-200 in particular. The Rolls
Royce Trent 700 has proven to be the
most popular engine option, surpassing the
Pratt and Whitney PW4170 by nearly 8 to
1. There should be no problem identifying
this freighter as it has a distinctive "noseblister" that accommodates a lengthened
nose gear. This nose gear extension was
needed to level the aircraft and ease the
loading and unloading of air cargo pallets
on the main deck.

Market Outlook
The A330-200F is in a market niche
between two other twin-engine freighters,
the 767-300F and the 777-200F, both of
which are currently in production. But the
continued gloom in the airfreight market will
mean that orders for new freighters will have
to be incentivized either by price discounts
or "slot-enhancements" on respective passenger model production lines.

The A330-200F does look particularly
well-suited to replace the MD-11F and
earlier-build 767 freighters for operators
in the 50+ ton capacity freighter market.
Boeing expects that 50 percent of new
freighter demand will be for replacement
cargo lift. When the air cargo market
does recover and new-production demand
improves, the A330-200F could make signiﬁcant inroads into this market segment
as older 767-300Fs, MD11Fs and more A300600Fs are retired.
In the near-term, freighter values will
be pressured by both depressed air cargo
trafﬁc growth and the increased bellycargo carrying capacity of new-delivery
passenger widebody twins. The A330-200F
is not immune to these forces, as seen in
the chart below.
Buying and/or leasing A330-200Fs will
continue to be the triumph of hope for
a long-term recovering air cargo market
over the experience of near-term declining
A330-200F values.

A330-200F
Current and Future Value Opinions, $ millions

Year of Mfg

CMV

2013

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2011

101.28

92.62

86.85

83.78

80.89

78.14

74.63

71.06

2012

106.61

97.42

91.27

87.99

84.89

81.96

78.22

74.41

2013

111.89

102.17

95.64

92.16

88.87

85.76

81.78

77.72

100.33

96.63

93.14

89.84

86.7

82.34

2014

Future Base Values ($MUSD) -2.0% inflation per annum

The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information
contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.
Jetrader * November/December 2013 29

Jetrader - November/December 2013

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