MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 156

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*

Q2

The question of the use of information among experts was researched by
Paul Slovic in the early 1970s and the
findings were presented in "Behavioral
Problems of Adhering to a Decision
Policy." Slovic's research involved eight
experienced horse handicappers being
shown a list of 88 variables found on a
typical past performance chart. The
handicappers were asked to handicap
10-horse races based only on five of
the 88 data points for a series of races.
When they did this, the handicappers
all used different sets of information
to make their selections. Their pick
success rate was 17 percent, which was
70 percent better than the 10 percent
probability of picking a single winner
out of ten horses at random. Moreover,
when asked of their confidence in their
prediction, they reported a 19 percent
confidence, which pairs almost exactly
with the 17 percent success rate. At
this point, the handicappers proved
their worth.
Next, the handicappers were asked
to select the 10, 20 and 40 most important pieces of information, and were
asked to predict race results and well
as report their confidence in their
prediction, based on the information
gleaned from the additional data. The
results showed that the handicappers
were no better at predicting the results
with the additional information, but
their confidence in their prediction
rose steadily with more information.
In fact, with 40 pieces of information,
the handicappers' confidence rose to
34 percent-nearly double the confidence level as compared to five pieces
of information-but their race predictions remained at 17 percent. Simply
put, the inclusion of more information
in the experts' decision-making process only affected their confidence in
their predictions, not the predictions
themselves. And with more information, their confidence became more and
more separated from reality.
How can we correlate these findings to the promise of Big Data made in
the Material Handling & Logistics U.S.
Roadmap 2.0? In other words, when
does "Big Data" simply become "data,"

*12/12/17
2 0 1 8 11:26 PM

can it be used to improve forecasting,
and at what point do Immelt's promises bear fruit? Since the inception of
Moore's Law in the mid-1960s, our computing abilities have increased by a factor of millions, if not billions. But even
with computing power in our pockets
that would have been unimaginable 40
or 50 years ago, are we any better at predicting future activities? Why can't we
put one-to-one odds on the Dodgers, the
Indians, or any other team? Perhaps the
handful of tried-and-true data points
our industry business leaders use, such
as the commodities prices, consumer
confidence, and the strength of the
dollar are sufficient at helping material
handling business leaders forecast at a
level that provides an advantage over the
status quo while keeping the confidence
in their forecasts in check.
Don't get me wrong-Artificial
Intelligence and Big Data are coming
(if they're not here already), and they
will be instrumental in transforming
the material handling industry by providing increased visibility, granularity, and applications in real time. But
when it comes to predicting the future,
the promise of more sensors producing more data feeding more algorithms
might not yield better results.
The Material Handling & Logistics
U.S. Roadmap 2.0 starts with an admission of things the first Roadmap got
wrong, just three years prior. When it
comes to baseball, the best predictor of
future success might be a bullpen full
of strong arms and a lineup of home
run hitters. For many of our industries,
the price of steel and oil will remain
a primary factor in our business leaders' forecasts. And for those members
who rely heavily on the importing or
exporting of goods, the relative strength
of the dollar to foreign currencies will
set the stage for future performance.
Additional information might only
help us to believe we are making better
predictions, instead of actually making
better predictions. In the end, maybe
that's just the way it's supposed to be.
To learn more about the Material
Handling & Logistics U.S. Roadmap 2.0,
visit MHLRoadmap.org.
●


http://www.storevertical.com http://www.storevertical.com http://www.MHLRoadmap.org

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2

CEO Update
3-Step Checklist for Addressing the Supply Chain Skills Gap
Beyond Analytics
Women Rising
People Are at the Center of the Robotics Revolution
Acing ‘The Basics’ of Business
Bridging the Skills Gap
Millennials and GenZ: The Key to Future-Proofing Your Supply Chain Workforce
Identifying Talent
Attracting and Retaining Top Supply Chain Talent
Consider Sustainability When Choosing Your Next Forklift Power System
CTE Program: Students, Instructors Benefit from Student Days Participation
Industry Focus: Intermodal
Education and Industry: An Ecosystem Mindset
2018 MHI Innovation Award Finalists
MODEX 2018
Economic Market Analysis
Safer Handling
Fulfillment Update
Product/Solutions Spotlight
Scholarship Winners: Where Are They Now?
Inside MHI
Will Big Data Help Us Predict the Future?
MHI News
Calendar
Index of Advertisers
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Intro
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - cover1
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - cover2
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 3
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 4
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 5
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 6
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 7
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 8
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - CEO Update
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 3-Step Checklist for Addressing the Supply Chain Skills Gap
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 11
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 12
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 13
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 14
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 15
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 16
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 17
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Beyond Analytics
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 19
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 20
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 21
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 22
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 23
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Women Rising
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 25
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 26
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 27
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 28
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 29
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 30
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 31
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 32
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 33
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 34
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 35
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - People Are at the Center of the Robotics Revolution
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 37
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 38
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 39
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 40
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 41
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Acing ‘The Basics’ of Business
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 43
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 44
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 45
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 46
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 47
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 48
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 49
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Bridging the Skills Gap
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 51
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 52
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 53
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 54
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 55
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Millennials and GenZ: The Key to Future-Proofing Your Supply Chain Workforce
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 57
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 58
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 59
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 60
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 61
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 62
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 63
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 64
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 65
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Identifying Talent
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 67
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 68
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 69
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 70
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 71
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Attracting and Retaining Top Supply Chain Talent
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 73
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 74
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 75
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 76
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 77
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 78
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 79
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Consider Sustainability When Choosing Your Next Forklift Power System
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 81
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 82
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 83
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 84
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 85
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - CTE Program: Students, Instructors Benefit from Student Days Participation
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 87
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 88
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 89
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 90
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 91
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 92
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 93
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Industry Focus: Intermodal
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 95
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 96
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 97
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 98
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 99
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Education and Industry: An Ecosystem Mindset
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 101
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 102
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 103
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 104
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 105
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 106
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 2018 MHI Innovation Award Finalists
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 108
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 109
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 110
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 111
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 112
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 113
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 114
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 115
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 116
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 117
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 118
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 119
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 120
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 121
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 122
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 123
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 124
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - MODEX 2018
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 126
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 127
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 128
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 129
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 130
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 131
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 132
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 133
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 134
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 135
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 136
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 137
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 138
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 139
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 140
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Economic Market Analysis
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 142
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Safer Handling
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 144
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 145
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Fulfillment Update
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 147
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 148
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Product/Solutions Spotlight
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 150
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Scholarship Winners: Where Are They Now?
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 152
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Inside MHI
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 154
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Will Big Data Help Us Predict the Future?
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 156
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - MHI News
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 158
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 159
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Calendar
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - Index of Advertisers
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - 162
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - cover3
MHI Solutions - Volume 6, Issue 2 - cover4
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