Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 70

bottom line | GRAPHIC PAPER

Global Paper and Paperboard
Demand Growing Despite
Declines in Graphic Paper
DEREK MAHLBURG

Healthy gains in packaging and
tissue outweighed the slide in graphic paper
demand in 2016, allowing global paper and
paperboard demand to grow by 1 percent,
or 3.9 million metric tons. This expansion
is somewhat subdued relative to the past 15
years' average growth rate of 1.5 percent per
year, but it represents an improvement compared to the past five years' average growth
of only 0.7 percent per year.
In addition, this growth comes despite
global graphic paper demand shrinking by
2.6 percent in 2016, its second-worst performance ever outside of a recession. The worst
non-recession performance by global graphic
paper demand occurred in 2015, when global
paper and paperboard demand's anemic
growth of just 0.3 percent also represented
its worst non-recession year ever.
SHRINKING SHARE
Over the past decade, graphic paper's
share of paper and paperboard demand has
shrunk from 40 percent in 2007 to 30 percent in 2016, making it easier for growth in
packaging and tissue to offset losses and drive
total paper and paperboard demand growth.
The slower paper and paperboard demand
growth of the past five years is not due solely
to the decline of graphic paper, as packaging demand growth has decelerated from a
3.2 percent average over the past 15 years to
a 2.3 percent pace over the past five years.
This is due to slower growth from maturing
economies in Asia and Latin America, as
packaging demand in North America and
Western Europe has accelerated compared
to its 15-year average.
However, because graphic paper demand is
falling more quickly in these mature markets,
and because packaging and tissue demand
are not growing as quickly, total paper and
paperboard demand still declined in North
America, Western Europe, and Oceania in
70

Paper360º

MARCH/APRIL 2018

2015 and 2016. Total paper and paperboard
demand also sank in Latin America and the
Middle East thanks to weak economic performances, another headwind that makes the
global demand growth of 1 percent in 2016
look healthier.
Unlike packaging and graphic paper,
global tissue demand growth has maintained
its pace of growth over the past 15 years and
has continued to grow by around 3.5 percent
per year, rising even during recessions and
in mature markets with essentially complete
penetration, such as the United States, or with
limited population growth, such as Japan.
RISI's Annual Review of Global Pulp
and Paper Statistics offers further details on
the paper, paperboard and pulp markets for
nearly every country in the world, presenting
breakdowns of demand, production, exports,
imports and capacity by grade for graphic

Over the past decade,
graphic paper's
share of paper and
paperboard demand
has shrunk from 40
percent in 2007 to 30
percent in 2016.
paper, packaging, tissue, other paper and
board, market pulp, and recovered fiber.
Derek Mahlburg, senior economist, North
American graphic paper, is co-author of the
Paper Trader, North American Graphic Paper
5-Year Forecast, and North American Graphic
Paper 15-Year Forecast. He works out of RISI's
Charlottesville, VA, office and can be reached
at dmahlburg@risi.com.
www.tappi.org


http://www.tappi.org

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Paper360 - March/April 2018

Setpoint
Over the Wire
The Importance of Safety Training
Data & Decision Making
RISI European CEO of the Year: DS Smith’s Miles Roberts
Buckman’s Junai Maharaj on ‘The Art of the Possible’
Fapajal Tissue: Old, New & Customer-Centric
Progroup Turns 25
PIMA, Paper360° Co-Host Executive Panel
Creating a Lignin Culture
Benefits of Drive-Through Design
Sustainability as Business Leverage
CIPTE Show Highlights Innovation and Sustainability
TAPPI Journal Summaries
Leadership in Maintenance: Where Do We Start?
As a New Reliability Engineer, Are you Confused About Your Role?
R&M Tips
Paper and Board Have Key Roles in the Future of Packaging
Global Paper and Paperboard Demand Growing Despite Declines in Graphic Paper
PPI Awards Showcase Industry Excellence
TAPPI News
ASPI News
Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - intro
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - ebelly1
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - ebelly2
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - cover1
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - cover2
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 3
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 4
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 5
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Setpoint
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 7
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 8
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Over the Wire
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 10
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 11
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - The Importance of Safety Training
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 13
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Data & Decision Making
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 15
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 16
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 17
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 18
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 19
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 20
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 21
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 22
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 23
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 24
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 25
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 26
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 27
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 28
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 29
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 30
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 31
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - RISI European CEO of the Year: DS Smith’s Miles Roberts
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 33
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 34
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 35
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Buckman’s Junai Maharaj on ‘The Art of the Possible’
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 37
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 38
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 39
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Fapajal Tissue: Old, New & Customer-Centric
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 41
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 42
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 43
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Progroup Turns 25
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 45
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 46
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 47
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - PIMA, Paper360° Co-Host Executive Panel
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 49
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Creating a Lignin Culture
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 51
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 52
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 53
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Benefits of Drive-Through Design
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 55
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Sustainability as Business Leverage
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 57
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - CIPTE Show Highlights Innovation and Sustainability
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 59
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - TAPPI Journal Summaries
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 61
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 62
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 63
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 64
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Leadership in Maintenance: Where Do We Start?
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - As a New Reliability Engineer, Are you Confused About Your Role?
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - R&M Tips
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Paper and Board Have Key Roles in the Future of Packaging
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 69
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Global Paper and Paperboard Demand Growing Despite Declines in Graphic Paper
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 71
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - PPI Awards Showcase Industry Excellence
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 73
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 74
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 75
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 76
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 77
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 78
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - TAPPI News
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - 80
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - ASPI News
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - cover3
Paper360 - March/April 2018 - cover4
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