Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 12

trendspotting | REBUILDS & CONVERSIONS

Conversions:
Tsunami or Trickle?
MARKO SUMMANEN, FISHER INTERNATIONAL

When a dam breaks, there can be a
catastrophic release of stored up water that
rushes downstream doing great damage to

the inhabitants below. Is that about to happen with conversions? The industry has a
big reservoir of newsprint and printing and

THE RESERVOIR
There are 1,310 machines worldwide making 121 million metric tons of newsprint
(NP) or printing and writing (PW) grades.
Altogether, they represent 27 percent of the
world's papermaking capacity. A single percent of average global communication papers
demand decline would release capacity equal
to three or four average-sized packaging
machines. In containerboard (CB), that represents about 0.7 percent of global capacity;
in consumer packaging, 3.5 percent. A global
demand decline in communications papers
accompanied by conversions of closing capacity could clearly have a disruptive impact on
packaging markets. This article examines the
likelihood of this outcome and what would
have to happen for it to occur.
A bird's eye view of the marketplace gives
an inkling of the dynamics at play with
growing and shrinking grades. Globally,
the paper industry is still growing. In the
past 10 years, it added about 100 million
tons of new capacity. However, there are
striking differences in the performance of
different grades (Fig. 1).
In packaging grades, e-commerce is
driving continued growth. From 2012 to
2017, business-to-consumer global sales
are expected to double to more than US$2.1
trillion, and this trend can be expected to
continue. Growing demand in packaging
has allowed even old, small, and slow paper
machines in those grades to survive. In Asia,
many of them are already swing machines
between major grades. Conversions from

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

12

writing machines; meanwhile, demand-
the reason for them to keep making their
grades-is crumbling. Everyone "knows"
that you can convert a communication
papers machine to containerboard, consumer packaging, or, in some cases, specialty paper, and everyone "knows" that
there is growth in those grades. Is the dam
about to break?

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Paper360 - November/December 2017

Setpoint
Over the Wire
Rebuilds and Conversions
Proud to be a Papermaker
The New Cascades
Operational Data Helps Mills Meet Challenges
Papermaking Best Practices with Vacuum-Dewatering Systems: Part 2
TAPPI Library is an Industry Resource
Managing the Decline of Graphic Paper Demand
TAPPI Journal Summaries
2017 PPI Awards Finalists
TAPPI News
ASPI News
Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Intro
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - cover1
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - cover2
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 3
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 4
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 5
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Setpoint
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 7
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Over the Wire
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 9
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 10
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 11
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Rebuilds and Conversions
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 13
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 14
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 15
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 16
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 17
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 18
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 19
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 20
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 21
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 22
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 23
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Proud to be a Papermaker
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 25
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 26
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 27
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 28
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 29
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - The New Cascades
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 31
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 32
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 33
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Operational Data Helps Mills Meet Challenges
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 35
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 36
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 37
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Papermaking Best Practices with Vacuum-Dewatering Systems: Part 2
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 39
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Managing the Decline of Graphic Paper Demand
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 41
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - TAPPI Journal Summaries
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 43
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 44
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 45
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 2017 PPI Awards Finalists
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - 47
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - TAPPI News
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - ASPI News
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - cover3
Paper360 - November/December 2017 - cover4
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