Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - (Page 34)
Anisa Shyti
BIOGRAPHY
Anisa Shyti is doing her Ph.D. at HEC's Strategy and Business Policy Department under the supervision of Thomas Astebro (Strategy and Business
Policy Department) and Mohammed Abdellaoui (Decision Science Department and CNRS Research Director). Originally from Albania, Anisa Shyti
received her MSc in Business Administration from Milan's Bocconi University in 2005 and stayed on at Bocconi as a lecturer and research assistant,
and to work on university projects with the fashion industry.
Entrepreneurship:
When overconfidence favors riskier bets
Studies have often pointed to entrepreneurs' excessive confidence in their own talents as an important factor
in perseverance and commitment to entrepreneurship. Ph.D. student Anisa Shyti uncovers the interactions
between overconfidence and attitudes to ambiguous prospects in entrepreneurial decision-making.
Hopping into the unknown is an integral part of entrepreneurship.
Maybe the quaint bed & breakfast opened with loving labour
will flourish while the vinyl record shop next door, founded
with equal passion, floun-ders. Or perhaps things will turn
out the other way around. This uncertainty also pervades many
aspects of every day life, as HEC doctoral student Anisa Shyti
points out. "The topic inspires me," she says. "After all, when
I left Albania to study in Milan, I was heading for the unknown,
since I had never left my country before." Even hospitals can
sometimes only give the probable chance of success of a
medical treatment. This lack of clarity regarding likelihoods
of outcomes is described in decision science as ambiguity
(rather than uncertainty, which suggests knowing nothing
at all, probability-wise). It is also distinct from risk, where
probabilities are known-as in the game of Russian roulette
(playing with a known number of bullets). "It's a very puzzling
concept," admits Anisa Shyti, "but also a promising area for
management studies." Indeed, ambiguity is very common in
entrepreneurship, where it's hard to know the odds of success
of a venture, but the decision-making processes of entrepreneurs
in a context of ambiguity have not been studied much. So the
budding researcher decided to delve into the subject for her
dissertation.
AMBIGUITY AVERSION: GOING FOR "SAFE" BETS
The angle of ambiguity is all the more interesting in a context
31
of entrepreneurship-usually viewed as an act of audacity-as
human beings tend be cautious in their gambles: as a rule,
they tend to prefer options with stated probabilities (50/50 for
example) over those with unknown probabilities. This phenomenon of ambiguity aversion was originally described in 1961
as "Ellsberg's paradox." In terms of entrepreneurship, it could
translate into choosing to open a franchise such as McDonald's-a
venture almost guaranteed to suc-ceed-as opposed to a totally
new fast-food concept, therefore with more "ambiguous"
chances of success, as Anisa Shyti explains. Yet experimental
research (as well as real-life examples of outlets other than
the famous hamburger chain) show that decision-makers are
not consistently ambiguity averse. On the contrary, ambiguity
attitudes of decision-makers are rich, depend on context as
well as on the perceived likelihood of an event. This opens up
new perspectives in the study of decision-making, in particular
the role of prior beliefs (antecedents of action).
OVERCONFIDENT ENTREPRENEURS
Anisa Shyti decided to examine the impact of overconfidence,
which is one of the most important psychological biases in
social sciences. She defines it as "inflated beliefs in one own
chances of success related to personal skills," pointing out
that it is "a genuine feeling" (we all like to think that we are
smarter than average). It is hardly surprising that most entrepreneurship studies attribute the decision to start a new business
Knowledge HEC
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊
Cover
Partner companies
Table of Content
公司治理 (David Thesmar)
Corporate governance
欧洲的可再生能源 (Andrea Masini)
Renewable energies in Europe
决策 (Mohammed Abdellaoui)
Why do decision makers underestimate rare events?
建立信任 (Michel Lander)
Building trust for successful mergers and acquisitions
产品线质量的高低端延伸 (Timothy Heath)
Extending product lines up and down in quality
制度变革 (Carlos Ramirez)
Institutional change
奢侈品市场 (Anne Michaut-Denizeau)
The luxury market
创业 (Anisa Shyti)
Entrepreneurship
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 公司治理 (David Thesmar) (Page 1)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 公司治理 (David Thesmar) (Page 2)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Corporate governance (Page 3)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Corporate governance (Page 4)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 欧洲的可再生能源 (Andrea Masini) (Page 5)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 欧洲的可再生能源 (Andrea Masini) (Page 6)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Renewable energies in Europe (Page 7)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Renewable energies in Europe (Page 8)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 决策 (Mohammed Abdellaoui) (Page 9)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 决策 (Mohammed Abdellaoui) (Page 10)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Why do decision makers underestimate rare events? (Page 11)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Why do decision makers underestimate rare events? (Page 12)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 建立信任 (Michel Lander) (Page 13)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 建立信任 (Michel Lander) (Page 14)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Building trust for successful mergers and acquisitions (Page 15)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Building trust for successful mergers and acquisitions (Page 16)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 产品线质量的高低端延伸 (Timothy Heath) (Page 17)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 产品线质量的高低端延伸 (Timothy Heath) (Page 18)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Extending product lines up and down in quality (Page 19)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Extending product lines up and down in quality (Page 20)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 制度变革 (Carlos Ramirez) (Page 21)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 制度变革 (Carlos Ramirez) (Page 22)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Institutional change (Page 23)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Institutional change (Page 24)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 奢侈品市场 (Anne Michaut-Denizeau) (Page 25)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 奢侈品市场 (Anne Michaut-Denizeau) (Page 26)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - The luxury market (Page 27)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - The luxury market (Page 28)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 创业 (Anisa Shyti) (Page 29)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - 创业 (Anisa Shyti) (Page 30)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 31)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 32)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 33)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 34)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 35)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 36)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 37)
Knowledge@HEC - Special Issue - 巴黎HEC商学院 研究专刊 - Entrepreneurship (Page 38)
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