Boutique Design - January/February 2009 - (Page 26)

IN DEPTH Facts, Figures and Quotes from Leading Hospitality Researchers BY KELLEY GRANGER & REBECCA GOLDBERG recession is 13 months old. Looking further at the six month growth rate, at this time, the recession appears to be similar to what the industry felt in late 1979 through early 1980, but not yet quite as bad as 2001.” — Chief Economist Evangelos Simos, e-forecasting.com “The worldwide lodging industry is heading toward some very difficult and challenging times. The lack of credit and liquidity, coupled with a downturn in travel and Simos spending, will have serious impact on the profitability of hotels. The relationships between hotel owners and lenders are going to be strained, and we will probably see some workouts, loan restructurings, foreclosures and bankruptcies.” —Steve Rushmore, president, founder and CEO of HVS “In 2008, the increases in supply built to a crescendo as the year went on. The deeper we get into 2009, the fewer new hotel rooms we will see enter the industry.” —Randy Smith, CEO of STR FACT: PKF-Hospitality Research is forecasting that the nation’s hotels should experience a yearover-year quarterly increase in RevPAR by the second quarter of 2010. I t’s all about the numbers. The hospitality industry, specifically hotels, naturally experience cycles, and the current state of the industry is no different. It could even be healthy. A hotel is a prod- uct and it must find an equal balance between supply and demand. In the last couple of years since the recovery period following 9/11 — the supply has bloated to levels that could not be sustained in some cities. It left some hotels in danger of low occupancy, as they had too much competition to fill a limited number of needs in the market (generally speaking). 2009 stands to bring a correction to the imbalance between supply and demand in many cities. BD scoured pages of studies from the top names in hospitality research — Smith Travel Research (STR), American Hotel & Lodging Association, HVS and more. We found that while there are signs that the record levels of hotel construction are waning, there are still opportunities to be had. Jan Freitag, the vice president of global development for STR, Freitag said that pockets of demand still exist and will attract vis- itors to the next frontier in travel — for example, as Dubai scales back, multimillion dollar developments are going on outside of Bali. Those who can put the shovel to the ground in January of 2009 and open the following year will have timing on their side, as it’s when we’re expected to rise out of the slump, he THE APPROXIMATE SIZE OF THE INDUSTRY 2007 Statistical Figures Source: American Hotel & Lodging Association Reports: Smith said. Read on to find facts, figures and thoughts about where we’re at, and where we’re heading in the new year. PIPELINE REPORT “The number of rooms in construction year-over-year is down 4.9 percent, which is a rather sharp decline from September’s 0.3percent drop. This decade’s hotel building boom is certainly showing signs of weakening.” — Duane Vinson, vice president, content management, STR Believe it or not, this cutting of the fat is good thing. Pre-exist- The Typical Lodging Customer In 2007 44% traveled for business 56% traveled for leisure A COMPARATIVE LOOK “Using the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) methodology to identify the peaks and troughs of the business cycle, the peak was in November of 2007 for the industry. Since then, the index has been declining and so far the 26 • boutique DESIGN january/february 2009 Chart courtesy of: Lodging Econometrics 48,062 properties 4,476,191 guestrooms $139.4 billion in sales $65.52 revenue per available room (RevPAR) 63.1% average occupancy rate http://www.e-forecasting.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Boutique Design - January/February 2009

Boutique Design - January/February 2009
Contents
Boutique Buzz
Designer’s Eye
Ian Schrager on Edition, His Partnership with Marriott
Business Sense
Niche. Improvement. Escape. The State of the Industry: Now and the Future
Industry Research
Three Firms Fight On
Designology
The Do’s and Don’ts of Networking
Simeone Deary Design
Haute Suites
Shopping the Market: Tabletop
Shopping the Market: Seating
Jeffrey S. Degen, AIA On Reasons Why the Time is Right for Hotel Development
Wanda Jankowski Speaks to Karen Daroff about Bathroom Trends
Calendar/ Advertisers Index

Boutique Design - January/February 2009