Arkansas Sports 360.com - July 2008 - (Page 59) HIGH SCHOOL Pulaski Academy Punt the Ball? You Have Got To Be Kidding Pulaski Academy Coach Kevin Kelley Draws Attention for Unusual Fourth-Down Strategy By Jim Harris A FEW WELL-SCHOOLED COLlege mathematicians and risk-management professors have, over the years, proposed that football teams statistically would be better off trying to convert a fourth down, even deep in their own territory, than punting. Probably none of them thought there was a coach bold enough to actually put the theory into action. Pulaski Academy’s Kevin Kelley believes in it so wholeheartedly you may never see the Bruins punt, no matter where they are on the field. If an opponent actually sees the Bruins in punt formation, they should probably feel insulted: That’s what Kelley and the Bruins do when not wanting to score again in a rout. Kelley might not even punt then. “One time, we wanted to punt it away because we didn’t want to look like we were running the score up. We punted, put in our sophomores, and they drove it 80 yards. I didn’t like that. That’s not what we do.” There is one situation that makes total sense when Kelley would order a punt. If only 13 or so seconds remained in the game and Pulaski Academy was protecting a slim lead with a fourth down deep in their end, Kelley would. But that means devoting at least a few minutes of practice time to punting during the week. Kelley will do it, but he’d rather his wide-open offense get all the work it can in preparation for the next opponent. Pulaski Academy was a state champion in 2003, a state title finalist in 2006, and regularly makes the post-season playoffs. Kelley’s quarterbacks matriculate to Division I schools – last year’s starter, Stefan Loucks, is attending Texas Tech – and P.A. running backs and receivers have found destinations as far away as Southern Cal. Former Pulaski Academy center Jonathan Luigs, a senior at Arkansas, was last year’s winner of the Rimington Award. This year, receiver Neal Barlow and quarterback Spencer Keith are also attracting college attention. Tradition runs deep at Pulaski Academy, and part of that tradition the national media picked up on late last year was Kelley’s disdain for the punt. A column by Gregg Easterbrook on ESPN.com included Pulaski Academy’s go-for-it-fromanywhere style. “There have been a few little things out FOUR DOWNS: Bruins coack Kevin Kelley has told his team what to expect — keep the ball until they’ve scored or run out of downs. there,” Kelley said of the national coverage coaching, and most things really,” Kelley on his fourth-down risk taking. “There said. He recalled originally reading a study was an excerpt in the New York Daily by a Harvard professor, then another by a . Cal-Berkeley professor with a News. I was on a Philadelphia radio station talking about 60-page thesis that outlined the risks and rewards of it. This week [in midnot punting the football. June], some company out of Connecticut, Seriously. a risk-management Brilliant college professors put the numbers magazine, wanted to work with various factors to talk about it for a story in place – location of the ball, they’re writing.” BY THE At first glance, it might seem where the opponent would as wild as a Las Vegas gambler at NUMBERS likely get the punt, time of the the blackjack table taking a card 1 State titles game, where the game was being on any number and thinking he 40.3 Points played, emotion at the time of could hit a winning 21. Actually, average per game the decision, how the decision in 2007 the percentages are more like would affect both teams, the that same player having a 17 2 Total number of weather -- and determined the punts in 2007 showing, and knowing he had most likely outcomes. a 55 to 70 percent chance of 85 Total number OK, but those college of victories getting a 4 to beat the dealer. If professors aren’t answering to since 2000 you knew you had those odds, a clamoring fan base, and their wouldn’t you take a card to win? jobs aren’t on the line if they Card-counters wish they could be that were to not punt and ended up losing good. a game. Their work, though, hit home “I’m kind of aggressive by nature in with a numbers guy like Kelley, who grew up in Hot Springs and started his prep coaching career in Carrollton, Texas, before he came to Pulaski Academy as an assistant. He was elevated to head coach in 2003. “If I’m on my own 5-yard-line and it’s fourth and 10, if I punt in high school or in college, you’re going to net 30 to 34 yards on average … You’re giving them the ball inside your own 40. The numbers say they’re going to score 77 percent of the time after getting the ball inside your 40. If you give them the ball inside your own 10-yard line, the percentage goes up only to 92 percent. I say only, I know 92 percent sounds high, but it’s only 15 percent difference.” Consider a couple of factors that Kelley’s already counting on: He’s not planning on giving the ball up and he knows his wide-open passing offense has a 55 to 70 percent completion percentage on any down. Common themes of football, such as using your offense as your best defense and keeping the ball away from the opponent, also factor in. When a defense has to gear up and stop one more play and fail, it’s a letdown. The opponent’s defense is on the field for even more plays, getting more tired, giving his offense more opportunities to score. Now, consider that Kelley – no matter where his team is on the field – is a playcaller with a four-down mentality facing a defensive coordinator with a get-them-outin-three style. Kelley’s third down calls aren’t do-or-die to keep possession. Thirdand-long is automatically a passing down for most teams; for Pulaski Academy, it’s just like first- and second-down calls. What’s a defense to do facing that mindboggling style? “Take all those things into consideration and percentages say you shouldn’t punt the football,” he said. “The guys that I talked to for ESPN say it, and I also hooked up with Don Shula, the Hall of Fame coach, and he also believed that you shouldn’t punt the football. Now, nobody will ever do that, mainly because of the fans, the media and their own players.” But Pulaski Academy’s players are convinced the style works and know what to expect. That expectation is that they aren’t giving the ball back until they’ve scored or they’ve run out of downs. Four downs. Not three and a punt. ❍ July 2008 ArkansasSports360.com 59 MICHAEL PIRNIQUE http://ESPN.com http://ArkansasSports360.com
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