Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - (Page 5) Up in the Air: US Pharma’s 2009 Forecast With Obama now in charge and the economy in the toilet, Walter Armstrong looks at why the US pharma experts are still saying “It’s all good.” I f pharma execs start upping their consumption of antihypertensives and anxiolytics (all branded, of course) in the months to come, it won’t be a huge surprise. As we head into 2009, two remarkable developments—the collapse of the global economy and the arrival of Barack Obama as president—may be leaving them a bit stressed out. Moreover, the US unemployment rate is expected to soar to as high as 10% and, with more than 2 million people losing private insurance, Big Pharma’s prices are poised to become the target of rage and rhetoric. In this new era of government intervention, Congress will move fast to strike deals favouring increased federal control. Everything is up for grabs, from pricing to pre-emption to patents. “Patients in the US know they’re paying much more than the rest of the world for the same drug,” says Arthur Daemmrich, a professor at Harvard Business School and author of Pharmacopolitics. “In the current economic climate, that’s not sustainable.” Meanwhile, of course, drugmakers will continue dancing at the edge of the patent cliff. “2008 was a year to make important strategic decisions that will be transformative. 2009 is all about execution,” says Carolyn Buck-Luce, head of Ernst & Young’s pharma practice. “The real innovation will be around operating models rather than business models.” The conventional wisdom is that pharma’s products don’t follow the same business cycles as consumer products, and that the industry’s tendency not to leverage protects it in a recession—but this may not be a conventional recession. Bain & Company estimates that US consumers will reduce spending by $500 billion through 2010 in an effort to rebuild lost wealth. The conventional wisdom is that pharma’s products don’t follow the same business cycles as consumer products… No conventional recession Comparisons to the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal abound. The US middle class, after a generation of wage stagnation, suddenly feels the bottom falling out of the $14 trillion economy. Bargain basement biotechs Next to the US’s ‘Big Three’ automotive manufacturers, no industry has been harder hit by the credit squeeze than biotechnology. Says Joe Panetta, president of BioCom, Southern California’s industry group: “Private equity has gotten scarce for many small and midsize companies. To make sure that they’re still standing at the end of 2009, they’re going to need assistance.” Stories of biotech bankruptcies began cropping up in the media late last year, 8 STRATEGY Industry life cycle: surviving the competitive stage 11 JACKY LAW What will be Pfizer’s next move? 13 CALENDAR Upcoming pharma industry events 2 NEWS Teva and Lonza join forces
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 Contents News From the Editor 2009 Forecast Strategy Jacky Law Calendar Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - Contents (Page 1) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - News (Page 2) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - From the Editor (Page 3) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - From the Editor (Page 4) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - 2009 Forecast (Page 5) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - 2009 Forecast (Page 6) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - 2009 Forecast (Page 7) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - Strategy (Page 8) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - Strategy (Page 9) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - Strategy (Page 10) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - Jacky Law (Page 11) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - Jacky Law (Page 12) Pharmaceutical Executive Digest Europe - January 28, 2009 - Calendar (Page 13)
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