Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - (Page 4) MARKET VIEW There are 95 compounds in late-stage development alone — either in Phase III clinical trials or awaiting regulatory review – and 50% of these are targeted treatments. If the average annual launch trend of 30 new pharmaceuticals across all disease areas over the last three years continues, oncology molecules could feasibly account for almost one-third of all new products launched through 2010. Added to this is the ongoing research into follow-in indications for The accelerating surge in new product introductions that began in 1997 has seen the size of the oncology market more than double in the past five years. products that are already approved and available for other tumour types. Even if only one third of these indications is ultimately approved, treatment options will be enormously expanded for many tumour types over the next 10–20 years. Who are the major players? Currently, ten major companies account for about 75% of global sales from anti-cancer therapeutic drugs and vaccines. However, with a plethora of new entrants coming on the scene it is very unlikely that the cancer space will remain as concentrated going forward. Amgen and Merck are now players in this market and GlaxoSmithKline has announced plans to launch five new major medicines for oncology in the next three years, including a vaccine for the prevention of cancer. All three of these corporations rank among the top 10 global pharmaceutical players. proteins. The majority of these approaches targets key processes of cancer cells — either in preventing cancerous cell growth, reproduction, or both — while others target apoptosis, or programmed cell death. In hematologic indications, like leukaemias — where the associated weakening of the immune system can limit treatment options significantly — exciting new agents in this area work by boosting the immune system or selectively targeting cancerous cells with antibodies or receptor blockers. All of these targeted therapies have many potential applications within and outside the cancer space, giving pharmaceutical companies a strong incentive to broaden the focus of their research beyond different stages of the same disease type to other areas. In fact, many of the molecules in late-stage development are being evaluated for a range of potential oncology indications. Some cancers with significant unmet need are the subject of intensive focus. There are more than 20 molecules in late-stage development for breast and pancreatic cancers, and more than 10 for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, prostate cancer and malignant melanoma. New molecules are also being investigated for other cancers which still offer significant potential, including advanced lung cancer, gastrointestinal cancers and esophageal cancer. cautious approval process has led to half as many introductions of new entities over the past decade as in Europe and the US — oncology is the largest franchise at $3.9 billion. What is the outlook for future growth? Globally, the oncology class is now growing at 21% — led by the US at 23% and Europe at 22% — and we expect global sales to continue growing at a compound annual rate of 17–20% to 2010, reaching $62–70 billion. Oncology will then be by far the biggest pharma franchise — and that is without including supportive care, surgery, radiotherapy or diagnostics. This is one of the key factors driving greater interest in cost control by regulators and payers in most markets. How will payers manage the influx of innovative new therapies? With new molecules more than realizing their initial clinical potential and addressing new segments and tumour types, demand has expanded faster than predicted. And, despite the benefits of new targeted therapies in treating some key cancers in the vast majority of cases, they still require combination with older therapies, so the total cost of the drug therapy component has risen. Payers are already finding it increasingly difficult to finance the growth. Eventually they will have alternatives to choose from as more molecules come to market, and this will lead to more competitive pricing. And the patent expiration of four current oncology blockbusters over the next five years will ease the extremely difficult task of developing cost/benefit parameters to guide their spending. Another option for payers is to demand higher levels of performance in terms of remission and survival for a drug to qualify for reimbursement, or even to sustain the launch price over time. They have already begun to examine the benefits derived from innovative therapies more rigorously and to compare them to those gained in treating other diseases. And their scrutiny is likely to increase, especially when new products SEPTEMBER 2007 ONCOLOGY What has been the impact of scientific breakthroughs on the oncology market? The accelerating surge in new product introductions that began in 1997 has seen the size of the oncology market more than double in the past five years, with global sales reaching $35 billion in 2006. Much of this growth can be attributed to targeted therapies, which achieved sales of $13 billion in 2006, compared to $1.3 billion in 2001. A very high percent of today’s oncology sales are derived from products launched in the past 10 years — particularly in Europe and North America. The US leads in this market with sales of $16 billion, followed by Europe at $12 billion. Even in Japan — where a more What are the key areas of R&D focus? In solid tumours, most new research is being directed towards small molecule receptor inhibitors and neutralizing antibodies of one or more of the VEGF, EGFR, TKI and HER2 4
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 Contents Riding the Wave Zero Sum Game Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - (Page 1) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Contents (Page 2) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Riding the Wave (Page 3) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Riding the Wave (Page 4) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Riding the Wave (Page 5) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Zero Sum Game (Page 6) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Zero Sum Game (Page 7) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Zero Sum Game (Page 8) Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - IMS Oncology Supplement September 2007 - Zero Sum Game (Page 9)
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