Pharmaceutical Executive Europe - April 2008 - (Page 10) 10 News & Analysis April 2008 Pharmaceutical Executive Europe DATA Mature markets contribute new low to growth in 2008 For the first time, the seven key mature pharma markets will drive less than 50% of overall growth in 2008, down from 60% in 2007, according to the latest forecast from IMS Health. By contrast, the seven emerging markets will contribute nearly a quarter of the market growth worldwide. Says Eva Edery, senior principal, IMS Health Global Pharma Strategy, “the growth characteristics of the global pharmaceutical market will diverge in 2008 as the gap widens between performance in mature markets versus that in ‘pharmerging’ markets.” The forecast reflects these changing dynamics with anticipated growth of only 4–5% in the US — where it marks a historic low — and the five largest European markets. Key drivers include increasing use of generics, a shrinking primary care business, and pressure from payers and Health Technology Assessments. In Japan — where the government continues to contain costs via biennial price cuts and incentives for prescribing generics — growth of 12% is forecast. These rates compare to expected growth of 12–13% in markets such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey and South Korea, where GDP and healthcare spending are rising. In these markets there is significantly greater access to both generic and innovative new medicines as primary care improves and expands in rural areas, and private health insurance becomes more commonly available. Notes Eva, “As companies reassess their commercial strategies and tactics in response to the new realities, it will be important for them to determine the opportunities and challenges involved in pursuing growth in pharmerging markets.” Percentage of absolute change (in constant $) 1.2% 20.6% 26.1% 33.0% 11.0% 51.6% 2.8% 15.6% 2002 AC = +$46.7bn Top 5 Europe 24.0% 2008 AC = +$39-43bn “Pharmerging Markets” 14.1% US Japan ROW Source: IMS Health, Market Prognosis International, Sep 2007 ‘Pharmerging’ markets include: China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey, and S.Korea http://www.pharmabrandeurope.com http://www.pharmabrandeurope.com http://www.marcusevans.com http://www.marcusevans.com
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