Based Largely On Sentiment, Not Oil Market Realities By Allen Gilmer AUSTIN, TX.-The one given in the unpredictable oil and gas industry is that "consensus analysis" about where the price of oil is going over the near to intermediate terms is consistently wrong. Just as $100 oil was a sentiment-driven price that baked in the risk of every potential negative impact on the supply chain, $28, $30 and $40 oil are equally sentimental, assuming that any and all incremental barrels will be available, and that demand will slow or stop altogether. While those inside the industry get it, more and more analysts outside the business are lining up behind the lower-for-longer sentiment, although there is some disagreement about what price level constitutes "lower" and what time frame is meant by "longer." But to step away from all the noise, there is a noncontroversial outcome to the current market environment: Oil will be much more valuable in the future than it is today. MARCH 2016 33