American Oil and Gas Reporter - April 2018 - 21

Mitchell. At that time, George's
unconventional resource renaissance
was decades away, and his Woodlands
real estate development and Hardy
tollway were still undeveloped forests.
George and Johnny shared a oneroom office with George's desk facing
the door and Johnny's back to George
with a view out the only window in the
room. So dad's story goes, it was tight
enough quarters that Johnny had to
scoot up in his chair to let George get
out, walk around his desk, and open
the door to offer dad a seat in the only
other chair in the room, which was a
basic run-of-mill chair from a card
table that I suppose was somewhere
with only three.
That was their beginning. Their
future would change the course of
global oil and gas forever.
Vision2020-The Future
Morningstar Commodities did a
great job of capturing the highlights of
the EIA's February report with the
headline: "How Huge is 10 Million
Barrels/Day in 2018?"
While the report provides
interesting perspectives on America's
lower-percentage share of world crude
output compared with the EIA
reference point of 1970, one must put
such perspectives into the context that
other countries are producing and
using more crude oil and natural gas
as their standards of living improve.
Their reliance on coal and such basic
energy resources as wood are being
replaced with all other sources of
energy in today's more modern world.
Like the Paris-based International
Energy Agency, the U.S. EIA must
constantly revise short-term energy
outlook estimates to compensate for
the same kind of data lag that takes
place, for example, with such
barometers as U.S. drilling permits.
Yet the big trend lines are
undeniable. They show that the
devastating downturn in domestic
activity that began in the fall of 2014
and gained steam throughout 2015
before hitting bottom in 2016, slowly
cycled back in the right direction during

2017. At least, for America's producers.
Estimates indicate production was at 10.2 million bbl/d in January
2018. The EIA expects output to average 10.6 MMbbl/d throughout this
year, and 11.2 MMbbl/d in 2019. This indicates the United States already
has surpassed Saudi Arabia and will surpass
Russia's reported production in the coming
year to take its place as the world's largest
crude oil producer.
Again, it is important to note that the
numbers are subject to revision. A case in point
is the March global economic outlook report
from the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The OECD increased its
estimates for growth in member
countries to 3.9 percent in both 2018
and 2019, which was up from its
November 2017 forecast of 3.7 percent
growth in 2018 and 3.6 percent growth
in 2019. What comes next?
The 2018-20 business outlook for
America's independent oil and gas
producers and operators we proudly
serve shines as brightly as at any time
during my lifetime. We simply thought
it made sense to hang our hat on a
three-year "outlook" about the
potential good times that lie ahead,
considering that the three-year
ringer of 2015-2017 is fading fast. So
many lessons have been learned, and
so many firms are forever fortified for
the future.
The "Vision2020" articles that follow
include input from technologists and
leading operators as well as the analysts
we turn to for reliable insight into the
many years that lie ahead, including all of
those inevitable opportunities and
challenges. We hope you enjoy their highly
learned visions of what is to come.
It's an honor to dedicate this issue to the
memory of my parents. It is also a pleasure
to dedicate this work to all the fine men and
women who contribute to the publication I
am privileged to manage.
You are the ones who are making
"America's Might" as an energy powerhouse
possible. Ride on!

Charles E. "Charlie" Cookson
Publisher
APRIL 2018 21



American Oil and Gas Reporter - April 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - April 2018

Contents
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