American Oil and Gas Reporter - July 2018 - 113

ConventionCoverage: Oklahoma Independent Petroleum Association

Math Favors Republicans
And Oil Industry, Too
By Bill Campbell
LAS COLINAS, TX.-Conventional
wisdom that the 2018 midterm congressional elections are likely to be a bloodbath
for the Republican Party may be no more
accurate than the belief Donald Trump
had no chance in 2016.
The same may be said for the idea that
the hydrocarbon era is coming to an end.
Oklahoma's 4th District congressman,
Republican Tom Cole, delivered some
optimistic math on his party's election
outlook during the Saturday general session at the Oklahoma Independent Petroleum Association's 2018 annual convention, held June 8-10 at the Four
Seasons Resort in Las Colinas.
The following day, in a presentation
billed as a capital outlook for the upstream
industry, Chuck Yates, managing partner
at Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors in
Houston, shared a pep talk on the future
of oil and gas that he said he gave to investors worried about the industry's
longevity.
And at the convention's concluding
banquet, Fox News personality Tomi
Lahren saluted oil and gas for energizing
the world, and encouraged oilmen to do
a better job of singing their own praises.
Representative Cole opened by remarking on the "intense polarization" of
U.S. politics since he began serving in
Congress in 2003. At that time, he recalled,
Democrats held congressional seats in
Oklahoma, in Texas north of Dallas, and
all but one of Arkansas' seven U.S. House
and Senate seats.
"We still had Republicans in the Northeast-three of Connecticut's five seats-
and the largest Republican delegation in
Congress was from blue California: 24
members," he said.
Today, however, Cole noted there were
no Democrats from Oklahoma, Arkansas
or North Texas. Connecticut is represented
by Democrats only, and California's Republican delegation had dwindled to 14.
"The red parts of America have gotten a
whole lot redder in the last 12 years and
the blue parts have gotten bluer," he observed. "That divergence makes legislating

extraordinarily difficult."
Further, Cole pointed out that Hilary
Clinton carried America's 100 most populated counties by 11 million votes in
2016 while Donald Trump carried the
remaining 3,000 by 8 million votes,
prompting him to comment, "You really
see an incredibly concentrated Democratic Party in urban areas and the rest
of the country is a whole lot more likely
to be red."
Midterm Outlook
Looking ahead to November, Cole reflected that in a president's first off-year
election, the party in power lost an average
of 33 seats in the House and four in the
Senate. However, he offered some math
that augured well for Republicans.
He observed that only 10 Republican
senators were up for election this year,
and "only two of them are at any kind of
risk." On the other hand, 24 Democratic
senators stand for election, and 10 are in
states carried by Donald Trump in 2016,
he said, including five that Trump carried
by double digits.

Consequently, he reasoned, "Not only
should we hold the Senate, we actually
should expand our majority by two or
three seats."
In the House of Representatives, Cole
said, Republicans' advantages often are
underappreciated and undervalued, beginning with the fact that the off-year electorate
tends to be older, less diverse and wealthier,
all of which favor Republicans.
Republicans have money. "Our national
committee is much better funded that the
Democratic committee," he assured. "We
won't lose House seats because we don't
have the money."
Election mechanics are another underappreciated strength, Cole said, explaining that House seats are won "race
by race." Democrats can be expected to
target the 24 Republican congressmen in
districts carried by Clinton, but he said
they "better bring a great candidate, their
'A' game and a ton of money because
those (Republican incumbents) are ready.
They have won those seats multiple times,
so the candidates themselves are a real
advantage."

Convention Chairman Donald G. Burdick, chief executive officer of Olifant Energy in
Tulsa, greets general session speaker, U.S. Congressman Tom Cole, Republican from
Oklahoma's 4th District, during the Oklahoma Independent Petroleum Association's
annual meeting, June 8-10 in Las Colinas, Tx.

JULY 2018 113

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