American Oil and Gas Reporter - April 2019 - 34

America: Energy Epicenter
FIGURE 1A

FIGURE 1B
U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production

400,000

40,000,000

300,000

30,000,000
Million Cubic Feet

Thousand Barrels

U.S. Crude Oil Production

200,000

100,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

0
1920

1940

1960

1980

0
1900

2000

1925

1950

1975

2000

Import/Export Balance
A separate report from EIA demonstrates how profoundly-
and quickly-the U.S. oil import/export balance is changing. In

2018, U.S. net petroleum imports (oil, petroleum products, and
NGLs) fell 1.5 MMbbl/d to an average of 2.3 MMbbl/d, the
lowest level in more than 50 years.
The agency forecasts that net oil and petroleum imports will
continue to fall to an average of 1.0 MMbbl/d in 2019, before
the import/export balance is upended to 900,000 bbl/d of net
exports by the fourth quarter of next year, averaging a net
export level of 100,000 bbl/d for full-year 2020.
Total U.S. gross petroleum trade (imports plus exports)
reached an all-time high of 17.5 MMbbl/d last year, but with
imports dropping and exports climbing as U.S. refinery runs hit
record highs. "The result has been a growing role for the United
States in world petroleum trade," EIA states. "U.S. crude oil
imports have decreased in recent years as crude oil production
has increased, and crude oil exports also have increased as
domestic production has risen."
And that same story line is playing out for natural gas and
NGLs, too. Consequently, exports of everything from natural
gas to gasoline, and from distillate fuel oil to propane and
ethane, are at unprecedented levels, EIA points out. "Total U.S.
petroleum product exports averaged a record 5.6 MMbbl/d in
2018. Distillate and gasoline exports have increased, particularly
to countries in the Western Hemisphere. Propane exports also
have increased, mostly to Asian markets," it observes in a report.
Meanwhile, EIA notes that U.S. natural gas exports, through
both pipelines and as liquefied natural gas, increased for the
fourth consecutive year in 2018, expanding by 14 percent yearover-year to 9.9 Bcf/d. Both pipeline and LNG exports finished
the year on a high note, reaching record levels of 7.7 Bcf/d and
4.0 Bcf/d, respectively, in December (Figure 2). LNG exports
jumped 53 percent to 3.0 Bcf/d, and ethane exports grew more

FIGURE 1C

FIGURE 2
U.S. Pipeline and LNG Exports (Bcf/d)

The source of all this sweeping change is, of course, the ultralow-permeability source rocks in lower-48 horizontal resource
plays. Thanks to the productivity of these formations, IEA's
annual Oil Market Forecast projects that America will become
a net oil exporter in 2021, with crude and product exports
exceeding imports, overtaking Russia and equaling Saudi Arabia
with respect to total export volumes.
"Greater U.S. exports to global markets strengthen oil security
around the world," Birol comments. "Buyers of crude oil, particularly
in Asia, where demand is growing fastest, have a wider choice of
suppliers. This gives them more operational and trading flexibility,
reducing their reliance on traditional long-term supply contracts."
In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration forecasts that the United States will
become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products even
sooner, achieving that status on a monthly basis later this year
and on an annual basis in 2020.
U.S. oil production averaged 11.9 million barrels a day in
February, down slightly from January, EIA estimates, but it
forecasts production will average a record 12.3 MMbbl/d in
2019 and 13.0 MMbbl/d in 2020, with most of the growth
coming from the Permian Basin (Figures 1A-1C). Meanwhile,
U.S. natural gas production leapt by 10 billion cubic feet a day
in 2018-the largest annual increase on record-to 101.3 Bcf/d,
which ranked as a new high in annual output. NGL production
also climbed by double digits last year, EIA adds, averaging
more than 4.5 MMbbl/d.

U.S. NGL Production

9
8

1,500

Exports by
Pipeline

7
6
Million Barrels

Bcf/d

1,000

500

5
4
3

Exports of
Liquefied
Natural Gas
(LNG)

2
1

34 THE AMERICAN OIL & GAS REPORTER

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

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American Oil and Gas Reporter - April 2019

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