AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2011 - 51

State of the Association
G
eneral aviation’s situation during 2010 was
very much like flying in mountain wave
conditions: We experienced both exhilarat-
ing updrafts and the occasional big downdraft, and
we had to remain keenly alert for rising terrain—as
well as changes in the weather. While those conditions
are continuing into 2011, signs are pointing
to improvement.
Just the fact that those oscillations are damping
provides some encouragement. After all, the nation
is just now beginning to emerge from the worst economic
crisis in 70 years. I don’t need to tell you that
every sector of the American economy has been
hit. General aviation is no exception, and neither
are the individuals and businesses that use general
aviation. The good news is that we are beginning
to see real signs of recovery. Everywhere I go, pilots
and aviation companies seem more optimistic than
they have in a long while.
And there are some hard num-
bers indicating a turnaround, too.
FAA statistics tell us that tower
activity was up 10 percent from
2009 to 2010; center activity was
up seven percent, and avgas sales
were up one percent. We’re also
seeing anecdotal evidence indicating
companies that had set
aside general aviation flying during
the leanest times are getting
their planes and people back in
the sky—also a good trend.
Much of the growth so far is
from existing pilots, flying their
existing aircraft—and as a result,
we see GA manufacturers lagging
behind in this recovery.
U.S. aircraft manufacturers have
endured a devastating two years
of plummeting sales and sagging
order backlogs, and workforces
have been reduced by as much as 50 percent. Yet GA
generates one of the few positive trade balances of
any industry; even in a down cycle, manufacturing
can create $4.9 billion in exports. In fact, 60 percent
of the billings for GA aircraft manufactured in 2010
were for exported aircraft.
Although we see the economy getting stronger,
we also know that the government is facing massive
deficits—not only at the federal level, but in
states and local communities, too. And that has
made budget cutting one of the dominant political
themes this year. When lawmakers are looking for
ways to reduce spending, general aviation is very
often a convenient target. One of our challenges
is making sure that well-intended cuts don’t have
negative unintended consequences over the long
term; for example, if a community closes its airport, that airport
is gone for good—and the tax revenue promised by the alternative
use of the site frequently doesn’t materialize.
It’s impossible to overlook what may be the greatest long-term
challenge of all: the steady decline in the pilot population. The
number of pilots has been falling for decades. And even from
2009 to 2010, we saw that trend continue. The number of private
pilot certificates issued for the year was down 51 percent; the
number of new commercial pilots fell 47 percent, the number
of new CFIs dropped 13 percent, and the number of new instrument
ratings was down 50 percent compared to the previous year.
Those are numbers we need to do something about.
And AOPA is doing something about it—and about each of the
challenges now facing general aviation. “Rally GA” is our theme
this year, an idea that encapsulates our efforts to pull together
all of our resources—not just AOPA’s resources, but also the
resources of the entire GA community—to support general aviation
and protect our freedom to fly. And there are many ways in
which you can help.
Part of this effort is storytell-
ing, if you will—telling stories
that promote flying and spread
the good that general aviation
can accomplish. It also means
we are working with our fellow
aviation associations to tackle
some of the big challenges facing
us, like the future of avgas
and what NextGen should look
like. And it means we are rallying
support in Congress so we
will have allies who understand
the importance and value of
general aviation, and keep GA
in mind when they are working
through tough issues like FAA
reauthorization, transportation
priorities, and budgeting. In
short, we want to be poised to
take advantage of the updrafts
along this mountainous course.
Flight training initiative. So, with that in mind, let’s talk about
growing the pilot population. Every year as many as 80 percent
of all people who start flight training drop out—without earning
a certificate. I can’t think of a single endeavor where that would
be considered acceptable, and it’s not acceptable for flight training,
either. So what’s happening between the time people start
their training and the time they either complete it or drop out? To
find out, AOPA has launched the Flight Training Student Retention
Initiative, partially funded by the AOPA Foundation. This
major project is taking a detailed look at the training process,
uncovering the hidden stumbling blocks, and talking with experts
throughout the aviation industry to find ways that are both practical
and effective to address those problems.
We started this initiative last year with some very detailed
research on the training process as it exists today. We also talked
with student pilots, including those who have dropped out;
AOPA PILOT • 51 •JUNE 2011
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2011

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