AOPA Pilot Magazine - May 2014 - 108

"For general aviation in 2089 you'd
have to be a technological optimist-you
just have to-because of all of these pressures," he said. "That means advanced
propulsion is going to allow us to make
do with less; greater autonomy is going to
allow us to do more with less; greater materials choices in the fabrication of airframes
is going to allow us to make do with less;
more efficient air traffic management and
airport procedures are going to allow us
to do more with less room; more efficient
flying procedures are going to allow us to
make do with less. It's all about making do
with less. So much of that comes down to
technology."
You hopefully end up with a future that
is "good enough," but perhaps not one featured in "The Jetsons" cartoons of the
1960s and 1980s. "Technological futurism
that borders on utopia almost never works
out," Aboulafia said. "Usually we find a way
to make do, muddle through, and live in a
pretty good world. On the other hand, the
whole Amazon octocopter thing [a proposal to deliver packages by drone]-you
can go too far with the optimism," he said.
John Hansman, a professor of aeronautics and astronautics at MIT, estimates the
Amazon shipping cost by drone to be $100
to $200. The FAA currently estimates that
as many as 7,500 small commercial drones
may be in use by 2018, assuming the necessary regulations are in place. The number
may be updated when the agency publishes
the proposed rule on small unmanned aircraft systems later this year.

"

The future of
aviation, literally
carrying people
about-whether flying
themselves or somebody flying them-is

safe, secure, and
growing.

"

-Joe Hepburn, senior
vice president Customer

Support, Cessna Aircraft
108 | AOPA PILOT May 2014

Pursuing the
$10,000 hamburger
Humorous looks ahead

AOPA members were asked in the
"I Was Wondering" forum on
AOPA.org for predictions on
general aviation in 2089. Here's a
sampling.
* "GA pilots will be pursuing their
$10,000 hamburger at a space
station orbiting Earth, eating it at
a café with antique memorabilia
consistent with 2050 architecture
and decorations, arguing about
how great America was back in the
2000s."
* "A Google Skyhawk will be priced
at $4.5 million (fully equipped)."
* "I predict the weak satellite signals/solar flares/whiz kids jamming
problems will have made GPS so
unreliable as to be next to useless,
and the FAA having decommissioned all the NDBs, VORs and
ILSs [navigation systems]-we'll be
back to navigating by tuning the
ADF [automatic direction finder] to
commercial AM broadcast stations.
The AOPA Forum will be full of discussions about navigating via 'rock'
versus 'country.'"
* "General aviation will still exist
but it will be called 'The People's
Aviation.' We will all be speaking
Chinese. And Bitcoins [a payment
network for people-to-people
transactions] will be the monetary
exchange. But don't include me
in the 'we' since I will be taken to
Sirius B [brightest star in the night
sky] and I'll be 147 years old and
still winning racquetball games
(Sirius B folks are a lot slower)."
* "Millions of Americans will download designs for roadable aircraft
and print them at their local fab
[fabrication] labs from spider silk
and glue. They will take off and
land on designated lanes of public
roads and commute to work and
recreational destinations. They will
be battery powered, charged with
electricity from small thorium reactors. Internet-connected avionics
will provide automated trafficavoidance guidance with 100-meter
separation minimums for personal
aircraft."
-AKM

"

Really getting way out
there, automation may be
the ultimate revolution
for small aircraft. Systems
will become robust enough
over the next 75 years
that you will not need to be a
pilot to fly; i.e., the plane will
truly fly itself from takeoff
to landing. This will remove
a barrier for all that have the
money.

"

-Rhett Ross,

president of
Continental Motors

Under the "good enough" view, newly
built airplanes look much the same as in
2014. "The airplanes from a configuration
standpoint will be not as different as you
might expect," said Hansman. "It will be
standard to have airplanes built out of composites. The planforms will be things that
would be recognizable today. They won't
be that radically different. The cockpit and
avionics are where they will be much more
radically different."
AVIONICS

A majority of those interviewed agree that
avionics will provide the greatest advances.
Aviation analyst Brian Foley describes the
cockpit of the future this way: "The flight
plan will be shared directly between the
airplane and air traffic control in real time.
Guidance for startup, taxi, and takeoff will
initiate from this information. A master air
traffic computer will communicate with
each aircraft to optimize flights and provide separation and weather avoidance.
Synthetic vision will advance to allow the
pilot to look out the window and see outside as if it were a clear day, even at night
or in weather-analogous to the projected
window views in today's simulators. These
advances will improve safety and allow an
increase in total movements through precise timing of takeoffs and landings and
reduction in separation minimums."
http://www.AOPA.org
AOPA Pilot Magazine - May 2014

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