Signature Q1 2009 - (Page 10) Perspectives | Illustration by Arthur Mount | Q1 ’09 Future Markets An Interview With Alex Green Future in Focus For this ‘Perspectives’ we spoke with an industry analyst about how Bluetooth low energy and high speed technologies are poised to change the way manufacturers and consumers use wireless connectivity. Also, Bluetooth SIG member Plantronics reports on the state of the headset market. Both give a glimpse into the future of Bluetooth technology. With the next major Bluetooth technology core specification set for release in mid 2009, it’s time to start thinking about which markets will see the greatest change and opportunity. Many commentators believe that Bluetooth low energy and high speed technologies have much potential. But U.K.-based analyst firm IMS Research, which has a team dedicated to analyzing the wireless markets, feels that there may be more opportunity in the first area than the second – at least in the short term, says Research Director Alex Green. For Bluetooth low energy technology, there is a waiting replacement market, as in the mobiles/cellular handset arena, where a standard Bluetooth wireless chip can be swapped out for a new dual-mode equivalent. But the low energy solution, which greatly extends battery life, also allows Bluetooth technology to go where it hasn’t been before – namely in products that run on small batteries, like sports equipment and medical accessories (think heart monitors, performance timing devices, high-end bicycles, runners’ watches and thermometers) and other very portable consumer electronic devices. “All in all, we expect to see up to three-quarters of a billion dual- and singlemode (Bluetooth) low energy devices sold in 2013, which should equal about a billion-dollar IC market,” says Green, citing his firm’s July 2008 market analysis. He notes that an energetic shift to the widespread use of new dual-mode Bluetooth wireless integrated circuits is necessary to excite the public about the advantages of this specification. What is the opportunity for Bluetooth high speed technology? That’s a much more complicated picture, suggests Green. Although IMS’s 2007 report on the subject predicted that more than 300 million Bluetooth high speed enabled products will ship in 2012, the company cautions that the technology must contend with equivalent wireless solutions in the same space and overcome potential incompatibilities between ultra-wideband (UWB) and 802.11, both of which will be integrated into the core specification at some point. “I think the challenge for the industry is to both avoid confusing consumers [and] find a way to secure the right niche for Bluetooth high speed [technology] versus competing products. So while we can see clear need for high-speed, wireless peer-to-peer communications, the space that Bluetooth high speed will take is not entirely clear,” Green explains. Further, the cost of adding Bluetooth high speed technology to a product is significantly more than adding Bluetooth low energy technology. For device suppliers that currently use the classic Bluetooth radio, absorbing what would be roughly a 10 percent increase in the low-energy IC price is easier than adding a high-speed IC, which could cost three or four times the price of a current chip. Despite the challenges, both Bluetooth high speed and low energy technologies are predicted to greatly benefit the wireless industry, taking Bluetooth technology into application areas and devices types where it has heretofore been unable to penetrate. Alex Green is senior director of IMS Research’s communication segment. He spoke with Gary Flood, who writes for Information Week and CIO magazine. 10 | SIGnature | Bluetooth.org http://www.bluetooth.org
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