CircuiTree - August 2008 - (Page 34)

[ Happy Thoughts ] 8.6 c/kWh. He extrapolated the growth rate into the future using 4 to 7 percent increases. A conservative number, considering what the price of oil is doing. He then looked at the current installed prices of four photovoltaic technologies in panels and, applying the history of the DRAM memory industry, extrapolated their declining prices. The convergence of the two sets of curves can occur as early as late 2012 or 2016, only four years from now. He added the Supply and Demand estimates (in 1,000s of MWp), noting that there will soon be an oversupply of photovoltaic production until convergence is achieved, then we will have a permanent undersupply as growth really takes off. What could change all of this is the “New Photovoltaic Technology Wild Card” that could rapidly lower the costs of photovoltaic technology. bring online another 210 megawatts by Q2 FY 10. Their goal is to reach 1 gigawatt of annual production by 2014. Why would oil producers want to do that? Well, they have more sunlight and open desert than anyone else, and as the oil runs out, with electricity you can make drinking water with reverse osmosis plants and hydrogen and other burnable gasses from sea water and the atmosphere. In 50 years, these will be some of the most prized materials in the world! ■ References “Photovoltaics: Grid Competitive in Five Years,” Industry News of Semiconductor International, March 2008. Project “Build a Solar Panel,” http://virtualsecrets.com/ build-a-solar-panel.html Russell, S., “Making $ense of Solar-Electric System Costs,” Home Power 109, Oct & Nov. Conclusions It would be nice if we only had to worry about competition from Germany and Japan. We have always had them as competitors. But now China is jumping into photovoltaics, as well as the Arab oil producers. Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates just invested USD 2 billion in thin-ﬁlm photovoltaic production equipment. They ordered USD 2 to 3 million in Applied Materials Inc. SunFab thin-ﬁlm automated lines. These lines make 2.2 m x 2.6 m CdTe photovoltaic panels. The 210 megawatt annual capacity will be on line by Q3 FY 09. A second order for USD 600 million worth of equipment will Happy Holden is the senior PCB technologist at Mentor Graphics-System Design Div., Longmont, Colo. Email: Happy_Holden@mentor.com Figure 3 Projection of Photovoltaic Electricity Prices and Potential Grid-Parity Points (Source Wikipedia) bnp Trade EDUCATION Showcase your expertise, introduce new products or programs, or suggest new business opportunities. BNP Media provides the editorial, design, and distribution via our leading magazines. CUSTOM MEDIA Custom Media Group creates The BNP custom media solutions using rich content and innovative media to build relationships and t lt Every project i t k and j t is turnkey d create results. E mapped to your marketing goals and budget. BNP Custom Media combines the power of over 60 media brands, extensive vertical market readership, expert editorial and award-winning design into one powerful media package. Custom MAGAZINES Go beyond an expensive catalog and take the lead in your business segment by publishing your own magazine. BNP Media provides the editorial, design, and distribution horsepower; you provide the direction. Commemorative PUBLICATIONS Celebrate anniversaries and milestones with custom publications that tell your story in a rich, colorful way. BNP Media has extensive experience with commemorative books and publications. Integrated MEDIA All BNP Custom Media can be formatted for the Web. In addition, choose from Web-only content and features to target your message and increase your online exposure. FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Steve Beyer, Director BNP Custom Media O: (847) 516-1977 C: (630) 699-7625 beyers@bnpmedia.com 34 August 2008 • circuitree.com CP0708HouseAd_7-25x4-875.indd 1 Untitled-1 1 7/2/08 8:42:13 AM 6/20/08 3:31:18 PM http://virtualsecrets.com/ http://circuitree.com

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CirciuTree - August 2008 Contents My Line Industry Review Tech Talk Flexible Thinking Creating Connections Between Electronics Design and Manufacturing Happy Thoughts View From the Middle Market Outlook Fein Lines IPCA Showcase Technical Product Spotlights Classified Ads Upcoming Events Ad Index Buyers Guide

CircuiTree - August 2008

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