CircuiTree - December 2008 - (Page 18) Flexible Thinking By Joe Fjelstad Looking Back and Looking Forward T he Roman god Janus, who lends his name to the month of January, was the god of gates and doorways and of beginnings and endings. He is typically personified in drawings and sculpture as having a head with two faces looking in opposite directions. The image is a compelling one at this time of year as we commonly look back to reflect on the events of the past year and look forward to the next. 2008 was nothing if not memorable. I am not generally prone to discuss politics or economics in a technical column, but the last year was exceptional and had a spillover effect on our industry, so I feel compelled to make a few observations and comments. In the U.S. and elsewhere, 2008 was definitely an economic roller coaster ride, and one that is likely to continue for some time to come as we collectively come to grips with the crushing hangover from the housing bubble that first created billions of dollars in make-believe wealth then almost as suddenly evaporated, leaving many people who sought to make their fortune in real estate upside down in their investments. Bank failures and a bailout of the banking industry are going on as I write this, and there is no certainty yet which way it will go. Clearly the majority of Americans who did nothing wrong, probably 90 percent, find themselves wondering why they are being asked by the government to pay the follies of imprudent CEOs of the failed firms as well as homebuyers and purchasers of MBS instruments who gambled on a “Bigger Fool” investment strategy that went south for the same reasons the dot-com bubble burst—irrational exuberance. And when people substitute sheep-like behavior for sound investment reasoning, they will be sheared by the bad shepherd, as they should. Buying them replacement wool coats will deprive them of the cold lessons that should have been learned from their follies. Events of the present day merit the reissuance of a warning from 200 years ago by none other than Thomas Jefferson: “I believe that banking institutions December 2008 • circuitree.com are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a money aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. This issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of the moneyed corporations which already dare to challenge our Government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country” (from the debate over the Recharter of the Bank Bill in 1811). Unfortunately, his warning was not heeded Nor were the many warnings by experts as far back as 2003 of the systemic financial failures looming if sober analysis was not brought to bear on the escalating problems. 2008 was also a year of historic proportions on the political scene in the U.S., in which the people will have either elected the first African American man to the presidency or the first woman to the vice presidency (because this is being written in advance of the election, the American populace/jury is still in deliberations). Change was the rallying cry of both parties and hopefully the winners will be able to deliver on their promises once elected. Still, the American populace is nothing if not resilient and I trust that we will be able to shake this latest financial fiasco and move smartly ahead having been made wiser and able to learn to replace collective fear with collective problem-solving reason as the basis for decisions. Those soapbox observations now aside, we move on to technology to find that 2008 was clearly the year of the third dimension. Not a week seemed to have gone by this past year without an announcement being made about some novel 3D interconnection solution being developed or introduced. This is something many of those in the world of flexible could likely have taken in with some mild amusement. This is because flexible circuit technology has been providing 3D interconnection solutions for at least a half century and perhaps another half century longer if we accept the time marker identified by flex circuit guru and interconnection historian Ken Gilleo. 3D interconnection is one of the long suits of flexible circuit technology among its many advantages. Moreover, when compared to the other more recent 3D offerings, flexible circuits also offer the third dimension in dynamic rather than static fashion. What is old is new again, or so it seems. In conclusion, while the future is unknowable, we must, I believe, look forward with hope and anticipation, but we must also, like Janus, not forget to look back for valuable lessons. For as George Santayana said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” May we all enjoy a happy, healthy, prosperous, and peaceful New Year. ■ Joseph Fjelstad, founder and president of Verdant Electronics and co-founder of SiliconPipe, is an author and innovator in electronic interconnection and packaging technologies. Download his flex circuit book free at www.flexiblecircuittechnology.com. E-mail: jfjelstad@siliconpipe.com 18 http://www.flexiblecircuittechnology.com http://www.circuitree.com
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