CircuiTree - January 2009 - (Page 40) By Walt Custer and Jonathan Custer-Topai 2010: The Next Recovery Year? T hird quarter 2008 electronic food chain revenue growth confirmed that a pervasive global slowdown was already underway. Although all of the end-market sectors (except SEMI equipment) were still in positive territory in Q3 FY 08 compared to Q3 FY 07, capital equipment suppliers (both PCB and SEMI) as well as PCBs, other passive components, and medium-sized EMS companies all saw sales declines last autumn (Chart 1). Looking forward, global GDP growth is now projected to reach bottom in 2009 (Chart 2). Because the world economic situation remains in a major state of flux, most prognosticators’ crystal balls are still a bit cloudy. Semiconductor usage (a measure of electronic assembly activity) is likewise declining. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group significantly trimmed its chip shipment outlook for 2008 and 2009 in November (Chart 3). It now expects a 2 percent global semiconductor shipment decline in 2009 before recovering in 2010. Based upon recent regional chip shipment results (Chart 4), all geographic Chart 1 Chart 3 areas are seeing sharp growth slowdowns. PCB suppliers (and their material and process equipment vendors) are clearly feeling the pain. Regional PCB shipments (Chart 5) were already in negative territory for all major geographies by autumn 2008 (Chart 5). With electronic equipment production expected to register negative growth for the U.S., Europe, and Japan for both 2008 and 2009 and China slowing substantially, it looks like 2009 will be a hunker down year. Hopefully smiles will again surface for our industry in late 2009 and 2010! PCB Fabrication India’s total production of PCBs in 2007 was about USD 350 million. – Dr. Hayao Nakahara Artetch Circuits received AS9100 aerospace accreditation from the British Standards Institute. Chart 2 Chart 4 40 January 2009 • circuitree.com http://www.circuitree.com
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