CircuiTree - February 2009 - (Page 38) By Walt Custer and Jonathan Custer-Topai Global Electronics Food Chain Is in Sync rowth rates throughout the global electronics industry food chain reflect the timing and severity of the current world recession. End market growth was negative in the U.S. and Japan and approaching zero in Europe and Taiwan/China by late autumn (Chart 1). Semiconductor shipments were even more sobering, with 3/12 growth negative in all regions in November (Chart 2). Recent fourth quarter guidance by a large group of world semiconductor producers predicts a 19.2 percent decline in Q4 FY 08 versus Q4 FY 07 chip revenues (Chart 3). Semiconductor capital equipment suppliers are having an even more difficult time with Q3 FY 08 revenues down over 40 percent compared to the same quarter in 2007 (Chart 4). Global printed wiring board growth is in sync with both electronic equipment and semiconductors. It was below zero in all regions by autumn 2008 (Chart 5). Combining this world food chain data produces a snapshot of the current business cycle for electronic equipment, chips, and PCBs G (Chart 6). Not a pretty picture to be sure but very believable considering current world business conditions. Keep watching these charts for signs of recovery. I expect the 3/12 curves will bottom in mid-2009 before moving into positive territory in early 2010. General Market Estimates The global financial system remains fragile and is subject to further debilitating shocks. World electronic equipment production is forecast to fall 2.2 percent during 2009 after an anemic 1.2 percent gain in 2008. Moreover, the recovery predicted for 2010 will have a less than effervescent 6.7 percent increase. – Henderson Ventures PCB sales for the automotive industry could drop from USD 3.5 billion in 2007 to USD 2.5 billion in 2009. – Dr. Hayao Nakahara China’s SMT 2008 market was CNY 36.15 billion. – CCID Consulting Global market for electronic conformal coating is expected to grow Chart 2 Chart 1 Chart 3 Chart 4 38 February 2009 • circuitree.com http://www.circuitree.com
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of CircuiTree - February 2009 CircuiTree - February 2009 Contents Lead Wire The Wire Tech Talk Flexible Thinking Are Better PCB Design Tools and Manufacturing Enough to Stay Competitive? The Strategist Fein-Lines The Big Deal Over Fine Pitch Assembly Asian Section View From the Middle Market Outlook Technical Product Spotlights Classified Ads Upcoming Events Ad Index CircuiTree - February 2009 CircuiTree - February 2009 - CircuiTree - February 2009 (Page Cover1) CircuiTree - February 2009 - CircuiTree - February 2009 (Page Cover2) CircuiTree - February 2009 - CircuiTree - February 2009 (Page 1) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Contents (Page 2) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Contents (Page 3) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Contents (Page 4) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Contents (Page 5) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Lead Wire (Page 6) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Lead Wire (Page 7) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Wire (Page 8) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Wire (Page 9) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Wire (Page 10) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Wire (Page 11) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Wire (Page 12) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Wire (Page 13) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Tech Talk (Page 14) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Tech Talk (Page 15) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Tech Talk (Page 16) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Tech Talk (Page 17) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Tech Talk (Page 18) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Flexible Thinking (Page 19) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Are Better PCB Design Tools and Manufacturing Enough to Stay Competitive? (Page 20) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Are Better PCB Design Tools and Manufacturing Enough to Stay Competitive? (Page 21) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Are Better PCB Design Tools and Manufacturing Enough to Stay Competitive? (Page 22) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Are Better PCB Design Tools and Manufacturing Enough to Stay Competitive? (Page 23) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Strategist (Page 24) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Fein-Lines (Page 25) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Big Deal Over Fine Pitch Assembly (Page 26) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Big Deal Over Fine Pitch Assembly (Page 27) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Big Deal Over Fine Pitch Assembly (Page 28) CircuiTree - February 2009 - The Big Deal Over Fine Pitch Assembly (Page 29) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Asian Section (Page 30) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Asian Section (Page 31) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Asian Section (Page 32) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Asian Section (Page 33) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Asian Section (Page 34) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Asian Section (Page 35) CircuiTree - February 2009 - View From the Middle (Page 36) CircuiTree - February 2009 - View From the Middle (Page 37) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Market Outlook (Page 38) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Market Outlook (Page 39) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Market Outlook (Page 40) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Market Outlook (Page 41) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Technical Product Spotlights (Page 42) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Technical Product Spotlights (Page 43) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Technical Product Spotlights (Page 44) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Classified Ads (Page 45) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Classified Ads (Page 46) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Classified Ads (Page 47) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Ad Index (Page 48) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Ad Index (Page Cover3) CircuiTree - February 2009 - Ad Index (Page Cover4)
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