CircuiTree - April 2009 - (Page 32)

By Walt Custer and Jonathan Custer-Topai 2009: Climbing Out of a Deep First Quarter Chasm T he global recession had already hit the world electronics industry by the fourth quarter of last year. With the exception of modest growth in military and medical equipment, the entire “electronics food chain” saw substantial revenue declines in 4Q’08 (Chart 1). Process equipment and active and passive components dropped the most. The world’s economies continued to shrink in early 2009 with many countries showing massive, double-digit industrial production declines (Chart 2). Semiconductor shipments (a measure of electronic assembly activity) were down 28.6% globally in January (Chart 3). February component and material demand continued to deteriorate as PCB and laminate shipments dropped further for Taiwan-listed companies (Chart 4). Japan, N America, and Europe were not immune as all regions saw large printed circuit board sales declines (Chart 5). How soon will business improve? 2009 will certainly be a very difﬁcult year. Gartner recently predicted a 24% decline in world semiconChart 1 Chart 3 ductor shipments in 2009 followed by 7.5% growth in 2010. Custer Consulting Group’s world PCB shipment model currently predicts a 25%+ drop in 2009/2008 world circuit board sales (Chart 6). Hopefully CCG’s 2009 PCB “growth” prediction is wrong as Hayao Nakahara, Prismark, and Henderson Ventures are all somewhat more optimistic. We’ll see. Fortunately there is some good short-term news. Electronic component revenues dropped much more than electronic equipment (Chart 7). By late February there were multiple news articles discussing improved component orders in Asia – often on a rush basis. Taiwan’s March sales are better than February’s (based upon early results). In N America the local end markets (military, medical, instruments) have been more stable than Europe’s automotive and SE Asia’s computer, mobile phone, and consumer sectors. So, expect an awful 2009 but the worst may be behind us. We should be already starting a slow, difﬁcult recovery from the 1Q09 chasm. The rate of ascent is the question! Chart 2 Chart 4 32 April 2009 • circuitree.com http://www.circuitree.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of CircuiTree - April 2009

CircuiTree - April 2009 Contents Lead Wire The Wire Tech Talk Flexible Thinking New GUI Improves Time to Market for Serial RapidIO System Designs Environmentally Speaking Intelligent Design i-Line UV Lithography and Sub-10μm Feature Size Package Substrate Technologies Guest Column BPA Growth Curves Market Outlook Technical Product Spotlights Classified Ads Upcoming Events Ad Index

CircuiTree - April 2009

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