Prepared Foods - August 2008 - (Page 31)

new product trends PHOTO COURTESY OF THE USDA ARS/ KEITH WELLER U.S. spending on fruit and vegetables rises only minimally across income levels. Households in the highest income group spend just $26 more per month than those in the lowest income group. Middle-income countries thus appear to be “catching up” to countries with higher expenditure levels, leading to convergence (low-income countries had to be excluded from this analysis, due to lack of reliable data). Globalization of the food industry, as measured by the expansion of multinational retail and foodservice chains, is also contributing to converging trends. The last decade has witnessed an unprecedented rise in standardized retail outlets such as supermarkets, convenience stores and large discount stores in developing countries. For example, supermarkets accounted for 15-30% of national retail sales of food in Latin America before the 1980s, but 50-70% in 2001, registering in two decades the level of growth experienced in the U.S. in ﬁve decades. The food retail structure in Asia is undergoing similar rapid changes. Similarly, Western-style restaurants and fast food chains are becoming more prevalent in middle-income countries, where increasingly urban and dual-income household demand for convenient food supports expansion of these outlets. (See chart “Fast Foods' Rapid Growth.”) Whereas local tastes and diets typically determine what products are sold, consumer choices are also being inﬂuenced by products sold in these standardized retail and foodservice outlets, which are often owned by multinational companies operating in several countries. As a result, the evolving food delivery system is also contributing toward converging trends in global food consumption patterns. Regression analysis confirmed converging trends in food delivery systems, as measured by sales from modern standardized retail outlets and the foodservice sector. Food sales through supermarkets and fast food service outlets in middle-income countries are moving toward the levels found in high-income countries. (An explanation of the regression analysis is available at: www.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves.) Convergence analysis also provides an estimate of the “half-life” of progress toward convergence (i.e., the Larger income-induced changes in lower income countries drive the food consumption trend toward convergence. The term convergence implies a dynamic process—movement from different starting levels toward some common outcome. In the case of food consumption, the common outcome is some universal “ceiling” or “saturation” level of demand for a particular food or food group, which is achieved at high income levels. Convergence can be statistically estimated as the speed of food expenditure changes over time across countries. This speed varies considerably—growth in food expenditures between 1998-2005 was as low as 14% in Japan and more than 100% in Indonesia. Regression analysis conducted on food expenditure changes point to a high degree of convergence between middle- and high-income countries, particularly for total food expenditures and meat expenditures. Although actual food spending levels are higher in wealthier countries, middle-income countries show faster growth in expenditures. Third World Countries Vie for International Attention New Products Conference Mintel PREPARED FOODS As the standard of living of consumers in some Third World countries improves, their interest in processed, prepared foods will spur new business opportunities for the food industry, but also create challenges. How manufacturers can compete in a business climate where the international supply is under scrutiny, fuel costs are soaring and advances in biological sciences are directly impacting the quality and availability of foods, will be addressed during a presentation entitled, “The New Dynamics of the Global Food System,” to be given by Mary L. Shelman, director, Agribusiness Program, Harvard Business School, during Prepared Foods’ 2008 New Products Conference. The annual event will be held September 21-24, 2008, in Scottsdale, Ariz. For more information, see www.PreparedFoods.com/npc or contact Marge Whalen at 630-694-4347 or whalenm@bnpmedia.com. www.PreparedFoods.com ● August 2008 31 http://www.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves http://www.PreparedFoods.com/npc http://www.PreparedFoods.com/npc http://www.PreparedFoods.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Prepared Foods - August 2008

Prepared Foods - August 2008 Table of Contents Hitting the Shelves Promoting Craveable Foods and Beverages It’s a Small World MarketWatch Regulations: Safety Dance A Taste of Southeast Asia Flavor Secrets: Asian Five-spice Flavor Secrets: The Well-seasoned Potato On the National Menu To Serve and Protect: Flavor and Nutrition Protection Fat Applications in Transition: Creation of Good vs. Bad Fats A Tasteful Formulation Balance Nutrient Density and Dairy Foods R and D Applications Seminar: Formulation Information R and D Applications: Some Flavors Like it Hot R and D Applications: Prebiotics from a Conifer? R and D Applications: Seeing Red (Foods) R and D Applications: A Probiotic with Survival Skills Abstracts

Prepared Foods - August 2008

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