World Trade - August 2008 - (Page 17)

TOP U.S. EXPORT PARTNERS TOP U.S. IMPORT PARTNERS Country 1. Canada 2. Mexico 3. China 4. Japan 5. UK 6. Germany 7. South Korea 8. Netherlands 9. France 10. Taiwan 11. Singapore 12. Belgium 13. Brazil 14. Hong Kong 15. Australia Total, Top 15 Countries Total, All Countries Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 data 2007 Exports (US$ bil) $248.9 $136.5 $65.2 $62.7 $50.3 $49.7 $34.7 $33.0 $27.4 $26.4 $26.3 $25.3 $24.6 $20.1 $19.2 $850.3 $1,163.3 % of Total Exports 21.4 11.7 5.6 5.4 4.3 4.3 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 73.1 100 Country 1. China 2. Canada 3. Mexico 4. Japan 5. Germany 6. UK 7. South Korea 8. France 9. Venezuela 10. Taiwan 11. Saudi Arabia 12. Italy 13. Malaysia 14. Nigeria 15. Ireland Total, Top 15 Countries Total, All Countries 2007 Imports (US$ bil) $321.5 $313.1 $210.8 $145.5 $94.4 $56.9 $47.6 $41.6 $39.9 $38.3 $35.6 $35.0 $32.8 $32.8 $30.3 $1,476.1 $1,953.6 % of Total Imports 16.5 16.0 10.8 7.4 4.8 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 75.6 100 health and education. A tightening of credit will undermine residential construction (40 percent of building and public works activity). Export volumes have been contending with the weaker demand for construction in the United States. Corporate ﬁnancial health is still generally good as evidenced by the good Coface payment incident index for Canada and the continued decline of bankruptcies. Beyond this general economic assessment differences emerge between regions and sectors. A dichotomy will notably persist between the Western provinces underpinned by raw materials and the Central provinces (Quebec, Ontario) very dependent on a manufacturing industry suffering from both unfavorable exchange rates and competition from emerging countries. While the aviation industry and facilities for energy production, mine operation, construction and agriculture have outperformed, other sectors have fared less well. Car industry parts manufacturers, who do 90 percent of their business with the three major North American carmakers, have suffered from the decline in local production and the reduction in the number of Canadian parts contained in vehicles. Tourism has suffered from the decline in the number of visitors from the United States. Retailers located near the southern border have felt the effects of cross-border purchasing by Canadians. The wood industry has been contending with the weaker demand for construction in the United States. China Economic growth accelerated again in 2007 (up by 11.5 percent) spurred by strong investment. Officials have been concerned about the overcapacity in the car, hi h ld l d steel and construction industries, which could lead to tighter margins and ﬁnancial difﬁculties, a risk already evidenced by a lengthening of payment times recorded by Coface. In view of the priority given to avoiding a catastrophic hard-landing scenario, monetary policy will remain strict, the moderate yuan appreciation will speed up slightly, and further administrative measures intended to cool off the economy appear likely. A gradual slowdown is therefore the most probable scenario. But even then, credit risk on companies continues to grow with the overcapacity suggesting that a shakeout will be unavoidable. Inﬂation accelerated in 2007 due mainly to rising food prices. The remedial measures taken—eight increases in mandatory bank reserves and ﬁve interest rate hikes—had only a limited impact last year. Monetary policy will thus tighten further in 2008. Financially, despite the appreciable total amount of extra-budgetary commitments, sovereign risk has remained limited. Moreover, China’s external position is still very solid, with foreign exchange reserves at record levels. The surplus liquidity generated by the large current WWW.WORLDTRADEMAG.COM 17 http://WWW.WORLDTRADEMAG.COM

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World Trade - August 2008 Contents Weathering the Storm Helping the World’s Poorest Nations Benefit from Global Trade Supply Chain Watch Tradewinds World Trade’s Top U.S. Trading Partners LTL Shipping ‘On the Fly’ Air Cargo Flies a New Heading Getting More from China Sourcing Why 3PLs Need a Seat at the C-TPAT Table Performance-based Supply Chains Drive Total Lifecycle Value SmartWay Navigates Sustainable Transportation Around the World in 80 Days—Hours—Minutes

World Trade - August 2008

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