World Trade - November 2008 - (Page 7) ® INSIDE WORLD TRADE Group Publisher Tom Esposito Publisher Sarah Harding Editorial Director Neil Shister shistern@bnpmedia.com Managing Editor Lara L. Sowinski Art Director Michael T. Powell Contributing Writers Mark Bernstein, Richard Barovick, Gail Dutton, Winn Hardin, Joshua Kurlantzick, Andrea MacDonald, Clay Risen, Jeremy Smith, April Terreri, Amy Zuckerman WORLD TRADE MAGAZINE EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD Grant Belanger Ford Motor Company Director South America Operations Steve Palagyi Director, Pacific Region PRTM Consulting Erik Autor Vice President and International Counsel National Retail Federation Susan G. Esserman Chair, International Department Steptoe & Johnson Beth Enslow Global Supply Chain Resiliency Marsh, Inc. Kurt Cavano, Chairman and CEO, TradeCard Frank Vogl, Vogl Communications, Washington D.C. Thomas E. Crocker Co-Chair International Trade and Regulatory Group, Alston & Bird LLP Unexpected Responses to Unanticipated Change I NEIL SHISTER SALES Publisher /Midwest Sales National Sales Director-East Sarah Harding 216.991.4861 hardings@worldtrademag.com Randi Giambruno 516.377.3906 giambrunor@worldtrademag.com Ed Lohmann 925.648.2562 lohmanne@worldtrademag.com Vito Laudati 630.694.4018 Fax: 248.283.6618 laudativ@bnpmedia.com Hong Kong Office Publicitas Wendy Lin Tel: 852.2527.3525, Fax: 852.2528.3260 Steve Beyer Tel: 847.516.1977, Cell: 630.699.7625 beyers@bnpmedia.com put off writing this column until the absolute last minute, so chaotic is the economic turbulence underway. Certainties of even just a few weeks ago are now up for grabs. The one truth you can bank on right now is when somebody says, “I don’t know!” Here’s hoping that the dust has settled as National Sales Director-West Inside Sales Manager/Print Asia Director Custom Media OPERATIONS STAFF Production Manager Marketing Coordinator Web Seminar Project Manager Reprint Manager & Trade Show Coordinator Group Audience Development Manager Multimedia Manager Corp. Audience Audit Manager Research Editor Postal List Rental E-mail List Rental Single Copy & Back Issue Sales John Talan, 248.244.8253 Danielle Kimble Bryan Cairns, 248.786.1613 Cindy Williams 610.436.4220 ext. 8516 williamsc@bnpmedia.com Christopher Sheehy Katie Jabour Catherine Ronan Amy Mills Robert Liska, 800.223.2194 robert.liska@edithroman.com Shawn Kingston, 800.409.4443 shawn.kingston@epostdirect.com Ann Kalb, 248.244.6499 kalba@bnpmedia.com WORLD TRADE HEADQUARTERS 600 Willowbrook Lane Ste. 610 West Chester, Pa. 19382 www.worldtrademag.com CORPORATE CORPORATE DIRECTORS Publishing Timothy A. Fausch Publishing David M. Lurie Publishing John R. Schrei Audience Development Christine A. Baloga Custom Media Steve M. Beyer Human Resources Rita M. Foumia Information Technology Scott Kesler Production Vincent M. Miconi Finance Lisa L. Paulus Creative Michael T. Powell Marketing Douglas B. Siwek Directories Nikki Smith Conferences & Events Scott A. Wolters Clear Seas Research John E. Thomas BNP Media Helps People Succeed in Business with Superior Information BNP Media Corporate Telephone: 248. 244.6400 you read this. Whether or not we’ve seen a true bottom on global markets, the facts on the ground in the real economy show things changing fast and furious. We knew that even before the financial meltdown. And, now it’s even more so! At the annual CSCMP meetings in Denver, I spent an hour ‘looking into the future’ with the eminent Georgia Tech supply chain expert, Professor John Langley. At one point we got to discussing supply chain centricity, the principle of organizing the enterprise around its supply chain, which is a concept more frequently praised in business school discourse than implemented in actual companies. I mentioned that at two places where I had reported this actually being done, IBM and Cisco, leaders were quick to admit that it had taken real pain to drive the process. John responded to the effect that we’re likely to see lots more of such ‘pain-driven’ supply chain initiatives. As he put it, the new axiom for the new economic paradigm: “the supply chain that worked for you last year won’t work for you next year.” A key element in ‘this year’s model’ is the resurgence of near-sourcing, figuring out which elements in your supply chain can be brought closer to home instead of shipped over from the other side of the Pacific. The reasons aren’t hard to identify: transportation expenses are surging, ‘hidden’ landed costs can quickly cancel out the initial advantage of cheap labor, the supply chain is faster, more responsive and safer when it is less extended. But changing gears for lots of companies won’t be easy. Various observes have noted that companies often got into off-shoring (read: China) almost impulsively and without fully considering the long-term implications; they now find themselves locked into business models and processes that are more committed to these sources than might have been optimally desirable. We’re focusing on Mexico in this issue as one way out of this dilemma. Proximity to the U.S. and ‘special status’ as a NAFTA partner puts Mexico on most short-lists. The first wave of border workshops and factories in the ‘90s (before the mass exodus to China) produced a reservoir of experienced workers. The last several Mexican Presidents have been unequivocally ‘pro-development,’ implementing their policies with petro dollars. That having been said, though, our article examines the ‘down side’ to Mexico, as well. Infrastructure progress has been disappointing. Highways outside of the border zone are inadequate to sustain time-sensitive supply chains; the commercial legal system is not always reliable. So ‘buyer beware.’ In looking to Mexico to implement an agile near-source supply chain, it’s going to be important to exercise due diligence. Near-sourcing is also going to have an impact on transportation providers. Consultants Ben Gordon and Karen Rutt, in an article accompanying the Mexico piece, sketch out the kinds of concerns shippers (and providers) need to be attentive to as the U.S. enters the “major change about to sweep through the supply chain.” So whichever way the financial gods blow, its time to acknowledge the winds of change and start addressing the agility of your supply chain. Neil Shister, Editorial Director shistern@worldtrademag.com For subscription information or service, please contact Customer Service at: Tel: 847.763.9534 or Fax: 847.763.9538 or e-mail WTR@halldata.com PRINTED IN THE USA WWW.WORLDTRADEMAG.COM 7 http://www.worldtrademag.com http://WWW.WORLDTRADEMAG.COM
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of World Trade - November 2008 World Trade - November 2008 Contents Unexpected Responses to Unanticipated Change Reading the States of Risk in Today’s Global Economy Supply Chain Watch Tradewinds Failed Promise: Mexico and NAFTA, 15 Years Later The Short Tale Marrying Trade Finance and Transportation into a Single Transaction Trucking Gets a Double Whammy Are We Safe Yet? Logistics Resurrects the Rust Belt Keep on Compressing World Trade - November 2008 World Trade - November 2008 - World Trade - November 2008 (Page Cover1) World Trade - November 2008 - World Trade - November 2008 (Page Cover2) World Trade - November 2008 - World Trade - November 2008 (Page 3) World Trade - November 2008 - World Trade - November 2008 (Page 4) World Trade - November 2008 - Contents (Page 5) World Trade - November 2008 - Contents (Page 6) World Trade - November 2008 - Unexpected Responses to Unanticipated Change (Page 7) World Trade - November 2008 - Reading the States of Risk in Today’s Global Economy (Page 8) World Trade - November 2008 - Reading the States of Risk in Today’s Global Economy (Page 9) World Trade - November 2008 - Supply Chain Watch (Page 10) World Trade - November 2008 - Supply Chain Watch (Page 11) World Trade - November 2008 - Tradewinds (Page 12) World Trade - November 2008 - Tradewinds (Page 13) World Trade - November 2008 - Tradewinds (Page 14) World Trade - November 2008 - Tradewinds (Page 15) World Trade - November 2008 - Failed Promise: Mexico and NAFTA, 15 Years Later (Page 16) World Trade - November 2008 - Failed Promise: Mexico and NAFTA, 15 Years Later (Page 17) World Trade - November 2008 - Failed Promise: Mexico and NAFTA, 15 Years Later (Page 18) World Trade - November 2008 - Failed Promise: Mexico and NAFTA, 15 Years Later (Page 19) World Trade - November 2008 - Failed Promise: Mexico and NAFTA, 15 Years Later (Page 20) World Trade - November 2008 - Failed Promise: Mexico and NAFTA, 15 Years Later (Page 21) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 22) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 23) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 24) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 25) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 26) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 27) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 28) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 29) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 30) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 31) World Trade - November 2008 - The Short Tale (Page 32) World Trade - November 2008 - Marrying Trade Finance and Transportation into a Single Transaction (Page 33) World Trade - November 2008 - Marrying Trade Finance and Transportation into a Single Transaction (Page 34) World Trade - November 2008 - Marrying Trade Finance and Transportation into a Single Transaction (Page 35) World Trade - November 2008 - Marrying Trade Finance and Transportation into a Single Transaction (Page 36) World Trade - November 2008 - Marrying Trade Finance and Transportation into a Single Transaction (Page 37) World Trade - November 2008 - Marrying Trade Finance and Transportation into a Single Transaction (Page 38) World Trade - November 2008 - Trucking Gets a Double Whammy (Page 39) World Trade - November 2008 - Trucking Gets a Double Whammy (Page 40) World Trade - November 2008 - Trucking Gets a Double Whammy (Page 41) World Trade - November 2008 - Are We Safe Yet? (Page 42) World Trade - November 2008 - Are We Safe Yet? (Page 43) World Trade - November 2008 - Are We Safe Yet? (Page 44) World Trade - November 2008 - Are We Safe Yet? (Page 45) World Trade - November 2008 - Are We Safe Yet? (Page 46) World Trade - November 2008 - Are We Safe Yet? (Page 47) World Trade - November 2008 - Logistics Resurrects the Rust Belt (Page 48) World Trade - November 2008 - Logistics Resurrects the Rust Belt (Page 49) World Trade - November 2008 - Logistics Resurrects the Rust Belt (Page 50) World Trade - November 2008 - Logistics Resurrects the Rust Belt (Page 51) World Trade - November 2008 - Logistics Resurrects the Rust Belt (Page 52) World Trade - November 2008 - Logistics Resurrects the Rust Belt (Page 53) World Trade - November 2008 - Keep on Compressing (Page 54) World Trade - November 2008 - Keep on Compressing (Page Cover3) World Trade - November 2008 - Keep on Compressing (Page Cover4)
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