2007 G8 Summit Magazine - (Page 63) This introduces the other great issue. Future resources availability and sustainability of energy supply. It is doubtful that increasing future demands for energy from both the developed and developing world can be adequately supplied from our conventional energy resources. The fossil fuels oil, natural gas, and coal that account for over 85 percent of total global energy use are finite resources and, at some time in the future, they will be in decline. Also, most of the future remaining resources of conventional oil and gas will be concentrated in a few countries some of which are potentially unstable. This is an energy security concern for those countries with an increasing dependence on imported oil and natural gas. The world resources of conventional oil and natural gas are much smaller than for coal. Therefore, when conventional oil and gas become scarce, those countries that have coal resources will use their coal and other alternative, more carbon intensive, resources to provide a greater share of our energy needs. This could have even greater detrimental environmental consequences particularly on emissions of carbon dioxide. Energy extraction and end-use technologies have improved greatly over the last decades. Coal can be used to generate electric power at higher efficiency with very low emissions of sulfur, nitrogen oxides, particulates and mercury. Oil and gas exploration and refining are now more efficient and less energy intensive thereby reducing their greenhouse footprint. Production of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, however, is the inescapable result of the combustion of all carbon containing fossil fuels. The U.S. Department of energy’s EIA predicts that carbon dioxide emissions globally will increase by over 60 percent over the next 23 years under a business-as-usual scenario increasing from 28 billion metric tonnes to about 44 billion in 2030. This is even assuming a carbon intensity decrease of 35 percent during that timeframe. (The carbon intensity is defined as the tonnes of carbon dioxide per million 2000 dollars of GDP). We believe that we are now in a transitional period from a world where there were abundant cheap energy resources to one of scarcer, more difficult to extract and more expensive resources. Higher energy prices may curb demand and encourage conservation and greater end-use efficiency in developed countries and this would be positive. However higher energy prices are also likely to slow the rate of economic growth in the developing world. This could thwart the aspirations of their peoples to obtain better living standards and could be a dangerous source of discontent increasing potential world instability So how can our future world address the conundrum of providing sufficient and affordable energy for a burgeoning population while protecting the environment? There is concern that if nothing is done to quickly reduce greenhouse gases the world climate could reach a tipping point and be irreversibly altered. This urgency prompts the question what can be done now to reduce GHG emissions, particularly carbon dioxide, from fossil fuel uses? Unfortunately there is no quick fix. Deployment of new technology is not rapid. Coal fired power plants can operate for over 50 years. The impacts of even aggressive energy conservation will not be apparent for some time. It can take decades to change the transportation fleet from today’s vehicle mix to higher efficiency vehicles, like hybrids. What can be done? Developed countries must begin immediately to make the first small incremental changes to the way they produce and consume | -63-
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