Vision - May/June 2008 - (Page 16)

“Multimedia is the term of the day as wireless service expands beyond voice to include a variety of communication, data and entertainment services,” says Frank Dickson, chief research officer for MultiMedia Intelligence, a Scottsdale, Ariz., based strategic analysis firm. “Companies such as LG, Motorola, Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson are racing to meet the consumer and operator demands for featurerich multimedia handsets, while controlling handset cost and power consumption. In turn, semiconductor manufacturers like Broadcom, ST Microelectronics, Texas Instruments and Qualcomm are competing to enable the increasing demands of handset manufacturers.” According to a MultiMedia Intelligence report published in February, titled “Multimedia Handsets: The World’s Most Ubiquitous Entertainment Device”, the number of “feature rich multimedia mobile phones” shipped worldwide this year will exceed 300 million units. But the figure also includes any handset with an image sensor, enhanced audio support to play MP3 files and the ability to play videos. Last year, 60 percent of all cell phones had these basic multimedia features, up from 24 percent in 2004, and by 2011 almost 90 percent will, the firm predicts. “The mobile phone continues to grow as a key part of consumers’ digital lives. More consumers are relying on cell phones as their only phones and are willing to invest in their functionality and expression of style,” says Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis for NPD, “In 2008, the handset industry is rising to the opportunity of higher-speed networks with devices that feature enhanced input methods and larger screens. These handsets will set the stage for the best wireless Web and media experiences that consumers have ever had.” Intelligent Design When smartphones first appeared in stores in 2001, they combined the functions of a basic cell phone and a basic PDA, and their internal architecture was relatively simple. The main “baseband” chip that controlled these devices’ voice communications function also was tasked with processing text messages, photos taken with a rudimentary built-in camera, and other early multime- The smartphone of today is not very smart. I can make a phone call. I can do e-mail. But the Internet experience is ugly. — Pankaj Kedia, director of global ecosystem programs for Intel Corp.’s ultra mobility group, Santa Clara, Calif. dia functions. These early smartphones also were large and did not have color displays. But as manufacturers added more sophisticated multimedia functions, the demands on the single processor also increased, and the internal architecture had to change. A new chip called an “applications processor” was added, to unburden the baseband processor, and “that has been the norm for the last three to four years,” says Pankaj Kedia, director of global ecosystem programs for Intel Corp.’s ultra mobility group in Santa Clara, Calif. Now with integrated video and graphics processing, the smartphones’ internal architecture—and its capabilities—are comparable to a PC, Kedia and other experts say. Yet deficiencies remain. “The smartphone of today is not very smart. I can make a phone call. I can do e-mail. But the Internet experience is ugly,” Kedia declares. For example, unlike a PC, the Apple iPhone won’t play videos recorded in the Adobe Flash file format. “By our estimate, the iPhone is using only half of its horsepower so far,” says Richard Doherty, research director at The Envisioneering Group, a technology assessment and market research firm based in Seaford, NY. So, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, Intel and other companies have devised new chips that will make smartphones much more like PCs. Some of the first to debut will be application processors based on a new core designed by ARM, named Cortex-A8. A “superscalar” chip, it requires very little battery power but operates at frequencies as high as 1 GHz, allowing a mobile phone to perform like a desktop computer. It is being used in new chips from Texas Instruments and Qualcomm, as well as several other ARM customers, and should be in smartphones available toward the end of this year, says James Bruce, mobile segment manager at ARM in Sunnyvale, Calif. The Cortex-A8-based OMAP3 chips from Texas Instruments are three to four times more powerful than applications processors available today, says Brian Carlson, strategic marketing manager at the wireless terminals business unit of Texas Instruments Inc. in Dallas. As a result, he says, smartphones that use it will boot up, load applications and render Web pages, quicker. “It will be a much more responsive phone.” In addition, Carlson says, OMAP 3 will be behind new 12-megapixel image sensors and 720p HD camcorder and H.264 video playback functions expected to debut in cell phones later this year. Also in development are Cortex-A9 multicore chips that will raise the smartphone performance bar even higher, Bruce says. Smartphones based on this design should be available in about three years, he says. Another new contender in about two years will be a system-on-a-chip from Intel code-named Moorestown. It is a low-power chip for smartphones based on the same “x86” architecture used in the Intel processors that run desktop and laptop PCs. Moorestown also is the nextgeneration of Intel’s new Centrino Atom chip that powers a new class of Mobile Internet Devices—essentially pocket-sized PCs—launching later this year. In two to three years, says Douglas McEwen, senior analyst covering wireless semiconductors at ABI Research in Scottsdale, Ariz., there will be more features and technologies integrated in single chip systems making smartphones better at the tasks they do today, and adding new capabilities. McEwen forecasts a shrinking market for stand-alone applications processors as single chip systems proliferate. In 2007, 293 million applications processors were shipped worldwide, and the number will grow to 388 million www.ce.org 16 May/June 2008 http://www.ce.org

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Vision - May/June 2008

Vision - May/June 2008 Contents Shapiro's Spectrum In This Issue The Economist C4 Trends Visionary Making the Smartphone Truly Intelligent Shipping Strategies for CE Companies IP in BRIC Countries CEA Newsline Tech Speak Eye on Business Tech Policy Market Insider Just the Stats

Vision - May/June 2008

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