Vision - September/October 2007 - (Page 21) pEriEncE After a modest start, the era of the portable media player (PMP) is hitting its stride, with an abundance of new devices and sources of video content expected to emerge in the months ahead. But while experts all agree that it still is early in the lifecycle of the PMP and big changes lie ahead for both the devices and their makers, they disagree about what exactly those changes will be. Some say that the PMP market already is nearing its peak, and that the increasing selection of multimedia cell phones and smart phones soon will cut into sales of dedicated handheld audio/video players. Others predict significant growth ahead in sales of PMPs but see shrinkage in the number of PMP brands in the market. Data Disagreement This year, according to iSuppli Corp., worldwide shipments of both MP3 players and PMPs are expected to total 213 million units, and 39.5 percent of those units will be PMPs—defined as any dedicated digital audio-video device that has a display measuring at least 1.8-inches—says Chris Crotty, senior analyst for consumer electronics at the market research firm based in El Segundo, Calif. By 2011, Crotty says, iSuppli predicts that total MP3 and PMP hardware shipments will reach 277 million units, and that PMPs will account for 67.1 percent of these. In the U.S. and Europe in particular, he says, consumers are migrating from digital music players to do-all video-centric PMPs. At the same time, PMP makers are flocking en masse to flash memory and away from hard disk drives (HDDs) to store content in the devices, Crotty notes. iSuppli is forecasting that the number of flash-equipped PMPs shipped will reach 150.2 million units in 2011, up from 5.9 million in 2006—a 25.5-times increase. This year alone, shipments of flash-based PMPs will grow by a factor of nine to 54.8 million units. By comparison, shipments of HDD-based PMPs will total 35.3 million units in 2011, up only slightly from 29.3 million units this year, iSuppli says. CEA’s own data paints a slightly different market picture for PMPs, which are folded into the overall figures for MP3 players, explains Steve Koenig, CEA senior manager of industry analysis. In 2007, CEA predicts that 41.5 million MP3 players will be shipped, and 46 percent of these will support video playback, up from 24.8 million units and 14 percent respectively in 2005. But in 2011, CEA forecasts, MP3 player shipments will be down to 34.3 million units after peaking in 2008 at 42 million units. By ROBeRt e . CA l e M • P hOtOg R A Ph y By D eB i FOx www.ce.org September/October 2007 21 http://www.ce.org
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