Vision - November/December 2008 - (Page 27)

in another world,” Fehm remarked. By early September, however, FujitsuSiemens was the only company to launch a product with XGP, and no other announcements were imminent, according to Ossias. He says he expects XGP-based products to be introduced in the U.S. by early 2009 at prices ranging from less than $200 to $1,000, and he is hoping that they’ll be on display at the International CES in January, but “there is no committed delivery schedule at this time.” Ossias anticipates that the initial XGP offerings here will be premium bundles of portable computers and matching addons akin to the Fujitsu-Siemens package. Later, he says, AMD hopes third-party vendors will help to develop an aftermarket for XGP-based peripheral devices, spurring lower prices over time. Enderle says he expects to see XGPbased products in the U.S. before the end of the year, in time for the holiday shopping season, with a broader roll-out at CES. The June technology launch should have enabled OEMs to start seeding the market in October or November, he says. Nevertheless, Enderle does not foresee a lot of XGP-based products on shelves before the middle of 2009. When XGP does appear, he says, it will go a long way toward increasing the appeal of ultra-light computers like the Lenovo X301, the Apple MacBook Air and the VooDoo Envy to a significant number of consumers who eschew them now. The last example, although marketed by a maker of high-end computers for videogame enthusiasts, is saddled with inferior graphics processing, Enderle notes. That makes it the perfect product to use XGP, he adds. How the products are marketed, to whom, and whether there are software incompatibilities also will be key in determining market success, says Enderle. “It may take a couple of generations before we work through all the difficulties.” As of press time, no major computer maker had announced any XGP products. But Peddie believes likely brands to bring them forth include Lenovo, Toshiba, Dell and Hewlett-Packard. “If there is just one company offering it and building it, you don’t have a category,” he declares. www.ce.org Ultimately, the products’ prices will be a significant factor in the market success of the technology, but it will take six to nine months of availability to determine whether the price is right, Peddie says. Then if XGP is commercially successful, he adds, “It’s not going to move the needle for AMD” financially for a year or more. What about Competitors? JAE owns the XGP cable and connector technologies and granted AMD exclusive rights to them for one year, after which they revert to open specifications, Ossias says. But even if they may adopt XGP, there is no guarantee that AMD’s competitors in the GPU market will do so. Intel is the dominant supplier of graphics technologies for notebook computers now, but so far has optimized these for long battery life rather than high performance. But a new “super multi-core” chip technology Clara, CA, expresses skepticism about XGP and its market potential. Most people who buy ultra-light portable computers probably won’t want to have an add-on peripheral to gain better graphics processing, he says— especially those price-sensitive customers who bought any of the least expensive models from ASUS, Acer or Dell. On the other hand, Haas says, notebook computers are “a really large growth opportunity,” with sales growing 20 percent per year—to between 120 and 130 million units worldwide this year from 100 million units last year—while desktop PC sales remain flat. The market segment of notebook computers used for videogame playing is growing particularly fast, he notes, and he adds that NVIDIA is exploring ways to have external and internal GPUs work together in this segment. One such idea, he says, is to use the company’s SLI technology to bridge an external Notebook computers are “a really large growth opportunity,” with sales growing 20 percent per year. that the company has developed—codenamed Larrabee—is able to dynamically switch between CPU and GPU functionality on an as-needed basis, Enderle notes. And while this may be difficult to incorporate into an external device, the possibility exists and is an interesting one, he adds. Speaking for Intel, company spokesman Dan Snyder seems to concur. “ATI’s XGP technology is an interesting approach to high-end graphics when faced with the issues of thermal constraints and small form factor PCs. As for Intel’s plans in the high-end discrete graphics area, we have a future product codenamed Larrabee that is expected in the market in 2009 or 2010. We have not disclosed details such as form factor and product information on that, however. Stay tuned,” he says. NVIDIA is dedicated like AMD to keeping the GPU physically separate from the CPU and easily could create an external graphics platform similar to XGP, Enderle says. He says he expects both Intel and NVIDIA to respond to XGP in some way. Meanwhile, Rene Haas, general manager of notebook products at NVIDIA in Santa and an internal GPU. Like AMD’s CrossfireX technology, SLI links multiple GPUs for collaborative graphics processing. Another idea, he says, is to build an external GPU into a docking station for a notebook PC. Finally, he adds, there is also the simple notion of enabling notebook computer owners to more easily upgrade the graphics cards that are currently built into their machines. This is already possible— though not implemented—with a technology named Mobile Express Module or MXM, he says. MXM is a small form factor expansion card with an industry standard connector, and it is presently used in onethird of notebook computers equipped with discrete graphics cards, whether those are from AMD or NVIDIA, Haas says. To be sure, whether XGP becomes the next big thing in computer graphics is anybody’s guess. But its significance, at least, appears certain: “This technology could do some amazing things for notebook computers,” Enderle declares, adding, “the lighter the product, the more exciting [it] is going to make that offering.” • November/December 2008 27 http://www.ce.org

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Vision - November/December 2008

Vision - November/December 2008 Contents Shapiro's Spectrum In this Issue The Economist C4 Trends Going Global Visionary CES Unveiled Eco-Intelligence Is Vital in a Sustainable Global Market XGP— A Game Changer Enhancing the Tech Experience High-Definition Decade Public-Private Partnerships CEA Newsline Tech Speak Tech Policy Eye on Business Market Insider Just the Stats

Vision - November/December 2008

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