The Leader - September 2007 - (Page 56) real e stat e maNaGemeNt The Potential Pandemic: Why Emergency Preparedness Plans Make Sense, Whether the Pandemic Strikes or Not by JIm roseNbluth NeWspaper aNd maGazINe headlINes reGularly aNNouNce the latest developmeNts IN What maNy experts portray as a loomING medIcal crIsIs of Global proportIoNs – the emerGeNce of a hIGhly coNtaGIous avIaN INflueNza vIrus that could kIll mIllIoNs of people. the Impact Is expected to be so Great that a maJor paNdemIc could fuNdameNtally alter the INterNatIoNal ecoNomIc system. I s this just mass-media hyperbole or is the threat of an avian flu pandemic an issue that businesses should take seriously? Are we simply talking about a “bad” seasonal flu outbreak, or is this something entirely different and much more dangerous? And if this is a serious threat, what should we be doing to prepare ourselves and our businesses for this impending crisis? A pandemic essentially is a widespread outbreak of an infectious disease affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population. Pandemics occur when a disease against which we have no natural or acquired immunity emerges within the human population and infects large numbers of people over a large geographic area. A pandemic is different from an epidemic only in that an epidemic is geographically limited, while a pandemic infects people throughout a country, across a continent or around the world. Pandemics typically occur when a virus mutates to a form that can be readily transmitted from one human being to another. Since we have acquired immunities to many virus strains over the centuries, relatively few strains pose a significant threat to the global population. However, when a new strain emerges or an existing strain develops the ability to “jump” from one species to another, a pandemic can quickly develop. Depending on how effective the virus is in spreading from th e le ade r organism to organism, and depending on how deadly it is, a pandemic can cause millions of deaths globally. h5N1: a type-a avIaN flu straIN H5N1 is a strain of the Type-A avian flu virus that first emerged within domesticated chicken and duck stocks in Southeast Asia in 1997. Initially affecting only domesticated poultry, H5N1 soon spread to migratory wild birds that mingled with infected poultry. This then spread the virus throughout wild bird populations in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Because viruses mutate continuously, they often develop the ability to infect hosts other than the ones in which they initially evolved. In the case of H5N1, it 56 september / october 2007
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