The Leader - September 2007 - (Page 59) th e p o t e Nt I a l pa N dem Ic: Wh y em er GeN cy pre p are dNe s s p laNs make s e Ns e W he the r the p aNde mI c s t rIk e s o r No t Government modeling of the likely effects of a severe influenza pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish flu and the H5N1 avian flu paints a very grim picture of what could happen. of the U.S. population, roughly 90 million people, would become infected. Approximately 45 million people would require outpatient medical care and up to 9.9 million would require hospitalization. Of those hospitalized, almost 1.5 million people would require Intensive Care Unit beds and half of those would require mechanical ventilation for pneumonia-like symptoms. Up to 1.7 million people could die in the United States alone. socIetal Impact With up to one third of the population infected with the virus, schools, day-care centers and public gathering places such as movie theaters and sports venues would likely be closed. Local and state government authorities would probably quarantine areas in which the virus is widespread, especially at the outset of the pandemic. International travel to and from countries with widespread infection is likely to be banned. Many businesses would close due to absenteeism, lack of business or as a precautionary measure to keep the virus from further infecting healthy employees. During the height of the pandemic, disruptions in essential services cannot be ruled out. Sectors especially vulner- able to large-scale disruptions include the food service industry, delivery services and transportation. Airline travel would be especially problematic given the confined environment of airliner cabins and the recirculation of cabin air. With children forced to stay home when schools and day-care centers close, or due to illness, many parents will be unable to come to work in order to care for their families. The ripple effects of massive absenteeism throughout the national economy, possibly reaching 40 percent of the work force, are difficult to imagine, but they will undoubtedly be severe. th e le ade r 59 september / october 2007
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