Automotive News - November 3, 2008 - (Page 20)

20 • NOVEMBER 3, 2008 VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY LOOK TO 2010 FOR WAVE OF FUEL-EFFICIENT VEHICLES INSIGHT Fuel efficiency is coming — it just takes time Consumers may want high mpg today, but automakers need at least 2 years to bring it to market Rick Kranz rkranz@crain.com ait till next year. Or, rather, 2010. When gasoline prices hit an all-time high in July, consumers wanted fuel-efficient cars yesterday. But the rules of product development and testing mean that automakers need at least two years to launch a new fuel-efficient car. Companies had been working on higher-mileage cars for years, but those efforts went into overdrive in early 2008. Last December, the federal government passed a new energy law raising corporate average fuel economy standards substantially. Under the new law, fuel economy must increase steadily until the industrywide fleet averages at least 35 mpg in the 2020 model year. When the law was passed, cars had to get an average of 27.5 mpg and light trucks 22.5 mpg. Oct. 1, 2010, marks the beginning of the 2011 model year, when the tougher new CAFE standards kick in. The next month, the much-anticipated Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid arrives. The Volt is perhaps the highestprofile member of the debutant class of 2010. That year will see the debut of vehicles engineered to meet the new rules and customers’ newfound interest in fuel economy. Some will feature new technologies. Others will bring in higher volumes of technologies that already are trickling into the market. To be sure, few vehicles will have exotic, cutting-edge technologies that leapt from the laboratory to the street. The short deadline to meet CAFE demands means that most automakers are relying on the triedand-true. “I don’t see a whole lot new coming down the pike,” says Jeff Jowett, manager of North American powertrain forecasts at CSM Worldwide. “I just see higher volumes of what we have today.” Still, there’s no doubt that 2010 will mark the beginning of a sea change in what we drive. Here’s a rundown of technologies to watch for in or by 2010. W provide up to a 10 percent increase in fuel economy vs. a four-speed automatic. Audi offers a dual-clutch transmission. Ford, Land Rover and Mazda also plan to offer the transmission. Diesel engine A diesel engine can provide a 25 to 30 percent increase in fuel economy compared with a comparably sized gasoline engine. Although German automakers are either offering or adding models with diesel engines, CSM’s Jowett does not expect the number of diesel offerings to jump. Diesels cost more than gasoline engines. And in some regions, the fuel can be 90 cents a gallon higher than unleaded regular gasoline. Says Jowett: “The consumer sees that and has got to ask himself, ‘Why am I going to pay more for a vehicle, more for a diesel engine, when all the efficiencies I am getting I am losing at the pump?’ So that is a tough sell. “If diesel prices get back down, close to gasoline, that changes the business equation significantly.” Diesels could account for 15 percent of the U.S. light-vehicle market by 2015, says Peter Marks, CEO of Robert Bosch LLC, the North American arm of the world’s largest automotive supplier. Bosch is a leader in developing common-rail diesel injectors, the critical component in modern clean diesels. “The diesel price is strictly right now a demand-and-capacity imbalance,” Marks says. “According to our sources in the oil industry, we think that by 2010 onward, this capacity shortage will be resolved,” allowing the price of diesel to move back closer to that of gasoline. Drivers then will see the advantage of getting more miles per gallon with diesel, Marks predicts. Toyota has a diesel engine arriving in a year or so for its full-sized SUVs. “Certainly we recognize that if customers are looking to save operating cost, that price differential is a serious obstacle to overcome,” says Mike Love, national manager of regulatory affairs at Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. “It really can sort of wipe out the increased efficiency of diesel.” General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz applaud the Chevrolet Volt, the most highly anticipated debutant in what will be a scene-changing class of 2010. and luxury models. Generally, fuel economy increases 3 to 4 percent when a five-speed transmission is used vs. a four-speed. Switching from a five-speed to a sixspeed transmission adds a similar percentage gain. “Earlier upshifts, earlier lockup times keep the engine speeds low and improve the efficiency of the engine,” says Roger Clark, senior manager for General Motors’ energy center. Ford Motor Co., GM and Hyundai Motor Co. are among the automakers switching to six-speed automatic transmissions. If six speeds are good, are seven and eight better? Yes and no. For now, the added cost likely will limit such transmissions to luxury brands. Mercedes-Benz offers a seven-speed, and the Lexus LS 460 and BMW 7-series sedans have an eight. The overall boost in fuel economy is about 1.5 percent if an automaker switches to a seven-speed from a six. You get another 1.5 percent by going to an eight-speed. Dual-clutch transmission A dual-clutch transmission is essentially a manual transmission shifted electronically. The transmission has two clutches. Power to the wheels is not interrupted between shifts — unlike a conventional automatic transmission, which wastes milliseconds and fuel between shifts. The dual-clutch transmission can Automatic transmission Six-speed automatics will become commonplace over the next few years. Until recently, four-speed automatics have been the norm, with five-, six- and seven-speed transmissions generally limited to premium Stop-start The stop-start system automatically turns the engine off when a vehicle stops, then restarts the engine when see 2010, Page 22

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Automotive News - November 3, 2008

Credit? Come and get it, industry groups say GM's product delays signal dire health Ford sticks with small-car plans Mitsubishi CEO: Let's halt Galant production in U.S. A dealer â and his reputation â on the ballot Help vehicles shed pounds American Axle posts loss UAW hires bailout adviser Ford to spend $200 million to upgrade 2 Ky. plants No off-lease cars? Certified will find others Arlena Sawyers China's stock market plunge has spooked car shoppers Advantage, Ford: Mulally likes owning Ford Credit Supplier execs join innovation panel at congress Quietly, Mini seeks 500 drivers to lease electric car for a year Reynolds bolsters document business Winterkorn: Audi needs to build in U.S. The great revenue drop of 2008 Bidders bet they can rebuild Heard 1 size fits all NADA: Give us tax incentives, dealer loan guarantees Campaigns' climate, energy plans hit economic wall Detroit 3 need and deserve U.S. help now Chrysler needs a buyer, but not GM Dealers pay fair share of taxes Washington hurts, not helps, electrics Compressed natural gas is the best fuel New ads aim to raise Suzuki's low profile Suzuki's new ad strategist: This brand has soul Fuel efficiency is coming â it just takes time Electrics edge closer by 2010 Tougher CAFE standards loom R&d chiefs shift gears for an electric future Japan carmakers lead charge into electrics Buffett backs BYD's sketchy plan for U.S. electric car Q&A: BYD envisions 2010 exports to U.S., Europe Girding the power grid for an electric fleet Hype powers plug-in vehicles Coachbuilders see salvation in electric cars Electric vehicles are charging into Europe Expect stop-start's big start to arrive in 2010 Flexibility will help Honda survive the storm Nardelli: Bailout not perfect â but needed Audi goes high-tech to boost service Acura offers quick service to win business Toyota's fashion fan Picture this Hondaâs N.A. operating profit falls 80.6% in quarter Aug. RV shipments fall 44% VW drops hints about car for new Tenn. plant Mexico sales fall 10.7% in September Honda to boost CR-V, end Civic output in Ohio Ford and GM jockey for steel discounts Dealers Ford Credit seeks to tap $700 billion package GM will end a used-car incentive early Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda recast fiscal 2009 forecasts Metaldyne to bondholders: Take 30% or Chap. 11 looms Detroit 3 ties hurt profits of dealer groups GM takeover would eviscerate Chrysler ranks, model lineup Mitsubishi plans electric hauler To match Toyota, Nissan offers 0% loans Sticker, sticker at the mall, what's the cheapest of them all? The Versa Waiting is what it's all about, Alfa Buy Chrysler? GM should sell Buick to SAIC Pickups pumped up by pump price plunge Chrysler hybrids, we hardly new ye Ghosn: Your best partner is a president in your pocket Sonic wins, but Mercedes wants last word

Automotive News - November 3, 2008

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