Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S9
SPECIAL ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT
"ONE OF THE CORE CHALLENGES IS REACHING THE LEVEL OF
RELIABILITY TO DEEM THE SYSTEM SAFE ENOUGH," ANDERSON
SAYS. "THERE'S NO SINGLE DEMONSTRATION I'M AWARE OF THAT
HAS YET AMASSED THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE TO CLAIM IT'S
BETTER THAN THE HUMAN MODEL."
"AUTONOMOUS DRIVING BY
ITSELF IS RELATIVELY EASY,"
HOU SAYS. "THE PROBLEM IS
ALMOST SOLVED UNTIL YOU
CONSIDER THE INTERACTION
WITH OTHER VEHICLES. THE
BIGGEST HURDLE IS HAVING
A SYSTEM THAT HAS TO
PREDICT OTHER DRIVERS'
BEHAVIOR."
That is the key challenge for a self-driving
vehicle: Interacting with a complicated,
unpredictable and undependable
environment-a world of potholes, bad
weather, bicyclists, pedestrians and drivers who
are distracted and break the rules.
In contrast, TuSimple's Hou goes so far
as to call the mission of a self-driving truck
in a straightforward highway setting a "soft
problem."
"We've worked on this for quite a while,
done a lot of road tests, and we are confident
in the reliability," he says.
"Autonomous driving by itself is relatively
easy. The problem is almost solved until you
consider the interaction with other vehicles.
The biggest hurdle is having a system that
has to predict other drivers' behavior."
But progress is coming to the market.
The tipping point for autonomous cars
arrives this year at Level 3, where the car
can take over steering and pedals but the
driver still can intervene and needs to be
ready to take over. Level 4, designating
fully autonomous, is expected by 2019; and
Level 5-fully autonomous cars that perform
as well as human drivers even in extreme
environments-shortly after that.
To help manage the market, the
government probably will step in with
standards and validation tests for self-driving
cars, paralleling the types of fuel-economy
standards that cars already are asked
to meet.
I think we'll see a validation system like
that, to make sure that a self-driving car can
do certain things, and then get some sort of
rating," says Nvidia's Shapiro.
Although these systems are being
developed to assume that, for instance,
lane markings might disappear at any
given moment, local,
state and national
governments also will
need to step up to
provide infrastructure
that supports Level 4
Sterling Anderson
and 5 driving. It's not
a complicated task, says Anderson of Aurora
Innovation.
"The most important thing the
infrastructure can do is simply to maintain
the infrastructure," he says.
Finally, any self-driving car will need to
pass muster with the public.
"One of the core challenges is reaching
the level of reliability to deem the system safe
enough," Anderson says. "There's no single
demonstration I'm aware of that has yet
amassed the empirical evidence to claim it's
better than the human model."
Says Shapiro: "We know right away that
these cars will be safer than human driving.
But does it need to be two, 10 or 100 times
safer before the public acceptance is there?"
Anderson is confident that acceptance
will be there once people comprehend not
only the increased safety but also what he
calls "the value of an autonomous vehicle in
giving back significant portions of time and
improving quality of life. If we build the right
system that's proved safer than the average
human, all it takes is one ride for the lights
to come on. People realize this is a complete
game-changer."
Still, he ends on a cautious note. "It's
important that we are realistic about
timelines and expectations," Anderson says.
"Autonomous and self-driving cars are a huge
opportunity, but we need to be very careful
about how we do them."
PAGE 9
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - Intro
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S1
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S2
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S3
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S4
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S5
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S6
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S7
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S8
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S9
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S10
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S11
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S12
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S13
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S14
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S15
Automotive News - November 6, 2017 - Supplement - S16
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