Energy Biz - July/August 2008 - (Page 32) director, sustainable mobility, transportation and hybrid programs at Ford, thinks ramp-up to reasonable commercial production will take a minimum of five years and perhaps Sure, when the air in L.A. became something you could a little longer, and while some companies are predicting a see and touch in the 1980s, fuel prices rose as a result of the shorter timeline, virtually no realistic scenario presents a oil embargo, and California passed an aggressive clean-air threat to the grid. While a new appliance presents no serious threat to the grid, mandate, it looked like electric vehicles might get a new lease on life. But the air cleared and gas prices fell, the mandate neither does it represent a sudden windfall for utilities. The greatest immediate benefit to the utility industry will come in was revoked and electric cars all but disappeared. But now that the polar ice caps are melting and gasoline the form of increased efficiency, assuming the new generation is taking on the aura of a Cheval Blanc ’53, the electric car of cars plug in during off-peak hours. And that’s the most likely is beginning to look a whole lot more attractive. All of the scenario. Virtually all of the car companies are aiming for an major domestic and foreign automakers have announced all-electric range between 20 and 40 miles, whether from a hybrid or a pure electric. Because the average plans to begin to market some sort of electric commute falls within that range, cars could vehicle and the only question is when they’ll conceivably go back and forth to work without actually ramp up production. The implicausing any gas and without needing to recharge tions are enormous for the world’s environduring the day. Although most utilities operate ment, for the auto and petroleum industries, in a regulated environment and don’t necesfor consumers and, of course, for the electric sarily realize increased profit from the sale of utility industry. additional electrons, more efficient operation Sooner or later — and with gas prices what of installed capacity will benefit the bottom they are, probably sooner — we’ll begin to see In fact, the line, and increased use of off-peak capacity will meaningful penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles, certainly IntroductIon dramatically increase overall efficiency. Furthermore, increased off-peak usage will within the next five years. When we do, a of the key concern is what effect it will have on the electrIc car facilitate the shift to renewable energy. Energy grid. Last year, a U.S. Department of Energy Is not much from wind, for instance, tends to peak during the evening hours, so charging electric vehicles study concluded the system has enough excess dIfferent at night would be a perfect opportunity to capacity to recharge 75 percent of the light cars from the and trucks on the road today if they were elecIntroductIon boost the percentage of electricity generated by wind and, in the process, help utilities meet tric. EPRI computer models conclude much the of any new their renewable mandates. A tangential benefit same. Based on likely economic and population electrIc to plug-in vehicles is that they could eventually growth between 2006 and 2030, incremental applIance. function as a distributed energy storage facility demand for electricity should grow by a little for the grid. Their high-density batteries could under 2,000 million megawatt-hours; of that, serve as a widely distributed source of emerabout 340 million megawatt-hours, or less than gency power during periods of excessive peak one-fifth, would be attributed to PHEVs and demand. But this vehicle-to-grid function is at EVs. In other words, if capacity must increase least 20 years down the road — pun intended approximately 50 percent over the next 25 years, — which raises the issue again of just what the addition of electric cars won’t matter one obstacles still need to be overcome before we begin to realize way or the other. In fact, the introduction of the electric car is not much the benefits of the electrification of the transportation system. The most obvious issue to be addressed is the battery. different from the introduction of any new electric appliance. Rick Tempchin, director of retail distribution policy As of this writing, no battery capable of reliably powering at the Edison Electric Institute, likens it to the introduction anything larger than a mini-sized Think-type car is in of plasma televisions. It represents additional demand, but commercial production. Lithium-ion batteries powering test it’s not as though people will rush out to buy them for the vehicles produced by Ford, GM and Chrysler are built virtuholiday season one year and plug in 40 million new electric ally by hand. The lithium-ion battery isn’t the only option. A cars to charge on Christmas morning. “Once we launch the sodium metal halide battery used in small European electric technology,” says Tempchin, “we’ll know what to expect and cars has great promise for certain types of vehicles, such as we’ll have time to deal with anything we need to do. That’s the hybrid electric locomotive that GE is developing, but for our business. The first vehicle to come to market will be a various technical reasons, the consensus is that some form of simple appliance and it will evolve from there.” Nancy Gioia, lithium-ion battery will power cars in this country. 32 E n E rgyB i z July/August 2008
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