Energy Biz - July/August 2008 - (Page 78) » IntroducIng Ready for a Revolution Nobuo TaNaka SayS MaSSive eNergy SpeNd LooMS by MarTiN roSeNberg Nobuo TaNaka Took The sTage at a huge energy conference in Washington recently and proclaimed, “We need a new energy revolution.” But while the world desperately needs to spend more on energy research and development, the executive director of the International Energy Agency said, spending has actually declined of late. “We must act now,” he bluntly said, perhaps uncharacteristically for a man who spent many years in the trenches of the Japanese government. To avoid a 6-degree Celsius average rise in world temperatures by mid-century, Tanaka said, we must spend $45 trillion by 2050 — the equivalent of 1 percent of the world GDP over that period — to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half. In other words, every year between now and 2050 the world must build something like the equivalent of 32 nuclear plants, 175 million square meters of solar panels, 17,500 wind turbines of 4-megawatt size and 35 coal-fired generating plants equipped with carbon capture and storage technology to master the climate change problem. The International Energy Agency was formed three decades ago as the industrialized world’s answer to oil cartels intent on disrupting the economies of Western nations. Now its small squad of economists, diplomats and energy experts work away in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower, analyzing the world energy scene for 27 member nations. Tanaka, 57, says that more than half of his efforts now are directed toward dealing with climate change. EnergyBiz recently interviewed him to learn more about the man and the agency he directs. His comments were edited for style and length. EnErgyBiz Your agency predicts world energy needs will grow 55 percent between now and 2030. Tanak a Yes. EnErgyBiz Do you see the current mix of generation resources staying the same or do you think renewable will play a greater role? Tanak a Fossil fuels still maintain quite a significant percentage to 2030. We think it’s not sustainable to meet the current challenge of climate change. If we continue business as usual demand, it may lead to the 6-degree Celsius temperature increase. Specifically, you see coal share going from 25 percent to 28 percent. Tanak a Coal will increase. That is one major challenge. EnErgyBiz Is that inevitable? Tanak a For China and India, coal is really the most abundant energy source. The problem is that its use emits enormous amounts of CO2. But a new technological avenue seems particularly promising: capturing CO2 and storing it, that is trapping it in deep geological layers, whether coal layers, depleted oil or gas deposits or saline aquifers. However, there is as yet no full-scale demonstration using a commercial-sized power plant. R&D is essential. EnErgyBiz Are you saying that since China and India will have to rely heavily on coal, the rest of the world will have to get off coal at a much faster pace? Tanak a No, all coal users will have to learn to use it in a cleaner manner. EnErgyBiz EnErgyBiz You’re predicting the need for $22 trillion of cumulative investment in energysupply infrastructure by 2030, about half of it in the power sector. Tanak a That’s correct. EnErgyBiz Is that level of spending sufficient to develop energy alternatives and look for carbon sequestration technology? Tanak a That is a very important question. In fact, $22 trillion by 2030 is not enough. That sum covers the infrastructure investment for oil, coal, gas and electricity that we project will be needed on the Is growth accelerating? Growth is not accelerating. It’s kind of moderating. Economic growth is expected to be about 3 percent annually to 2030. The growth comes mainly from emerging economies like China and India. EnErgyBiz Tanak a July/August 2008 78 E n E rgyB i z
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