EnergyBiz - November/December 2007 - (Page 44)

» GuIDe&souRCeBook by williAM opAlkA eVeN wIthout worldwIde (GENEraTION TEchNOlOGIES) New Trends in Generation Technology demand for electricity projected to double by 2030, utilities would have to find new and better ways to generate power. Overlaid on top of burgeoning demand is even more pressure to innovate: the widely held expectation that carbon will be regulated, undermining conventional coal-fired generation. However, pulverized coal and natural gas will continue to be predominant fuels in the coming years, with renewables gaining a share. But improvements in efficiency are well underway in each of the main power generation sectors – coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewables – report manufacturers and industry consultants. Some of these innovations may be available in a few years, while other ongoing research may provide the power sources of the future in 20 years’ time. Many others are available now, but cost pressures in the short run prevent widespread acceptance and implementation. Others, still, are caught up in political uncertainty that has hamstrung utility executives from making sound decisions balancing their need to increase generation capacity while protecting their companies’ financial viability in the coming decades. Following is a discussion of the existing and emerging technologies in the different fuel sources for electricity generation, based on discussions with industry executives and observers. CoAL With about 12 gigawatts of conventional coal fired plant projects either delayed or cancelled in the past year, project planners have slammed the brakes on many pulverized coal projects. But that hasn’t exactly caused a rush of orders for the next big thing – integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC). A primary attraction of the technology is the process for carbon capture, in which investigations are underway to store the byproduct and use it for power generation in its own right. But the immediate attraction of IGCC technology is its equivalence on the generation side with conventional coal. “The overall efficiency without carbon capture is the same as with pulverized coal, but the uncertainty on how to prepare for the regulation of carbon regulation has left the industry with only its first generation of the technology,” says Robert Slettehaugh of Black & Veatch. With IGCC plants now costing about 40 percent more than conventional plants – as opposed to the expected 20 percent premium – the consideration now is whether existing plants could be retrofitted for carbon capture more cost-effectively. IGCC costs are expected to moderate. The second generation of plants will be commissioned around 2012. Coal gasification to produce a synthetic natural gas is on the way, with detailed engineering to continue over the next three to four years, with perhaps a prototypical plant to arrive around 2012. Of course, much has been made of the FutureGen initiative to build the world’s first integrated sequestration and hydrogen production research power plant. The $1.5 billion project is intended to create the world’s first zero-emissions fossil fuel plant. nAtuRAL GAs Much discussion in recent years has centered on breaking the barriers of efficiency, first at 50 percent and more recently in approaching 60 percent. GE Energy’s first installation of its 60-hertz H System gas turbine in Southern California is on target for full commercial startup next summer. Recently, back feed power was provided to one of two gas turbines at the site, clearing the way for startup and commissioning of power plant auxiliary systems. The company says an innovative, closed-loop steam cooling system and advanced coating materials achieve higher firing temperatures required for increased efficiency. For every unit of electricity generated, the H System gas turbine uses less fuel and produces fewer greenhouse gases and other emissions when compared to other large gas turbine combined-cycle systems. nuCLeAR “In the mid-term, in say the next seven to eight years, the issue for nuclear is going to be the capital costs,” says Tim Holt, director of strategic marketing for Siemens. “Much of the improvements in nuclear technology have come in safety,” says Alex Silver, vice president of technical studies at Black & Veatch. Advanced pressurized water reactors hold such promise. “In the event of a shutdown, it lets the heat out quickly as the water quenches the system,” he says. A reliance on gravity flows eliminates much of the pumping, which in turn reduces the potential for mechanical failure of valves and pipes. This plant design is expected to be featured in the next generation of reactors, commissioned overseas in the next few years and, eventually, when plants are built in the United States. A Department of Energy program, the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) is intended to develop fuel cycle technologies for economic nuclear energy production while satisfying requirements for a controlled proliferationresistant nuclear materials management system. AFCI wants In the mID-teRm, In sAy the next seven to eIGht yeARs, the Issue FoR nuCLeAR Is GoInG to Be the CAPItAL Costs. 44 E n E rgyB i z November/December 2007

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of EnergyBiz - November/December 2007

EnergyBiz - November/December 2007 Contents Continental Grid Vision Needed Readers’ Views and Opinions Next for National Grid Clearing the Air The Need for Nuclear Energy Trade Status Report The Innovators California On The Leading Edge FERC Sparks Change Getting Coal Right Leadership in Times of Turmoil Innovation Delivers Return A Tale of Two IPOs LNGs Bright Prospects Generation Techologies The Age of Superconductors Leaders with Vision Get Ready for Plug-in Hybrids Betting on Batteries Cost of Decarbonizing Nuclear Helmsman – A chat with Dale Klein, Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Global Energy Snapshot; Low-Income Energy Help; IT Spending Robust; The Greening of State Regulators; Generating Support Simplifying Offshore Wind Regs Chasing Construction Costs Energy Agency Sets New Course Deregulation Means Higher Rates Go-To Staffer Nightmare in Manhatten

EnergyBiz - November/December 2007

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