Government Technology - September 2007 - (Page 22)

demand over the next 25 years. But nuclear opponents say part of that demand would disappear if Southern states tightened energy efficiency standards. Georgia could delay its extra base-load capacity needs if it increased its energy efficiency standards, said Sara Barczak, safe energy director for the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, and a In Finland, European utility Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO) is building a “thirdgeneration” reactor speciﬁcally designed to withstand a plane crash. The reactor is located on Olkiluoto, a Finnish island. However, TVO is still working out the kinks in that plant’s design. It is not among the ﬁve new designs currently circulating through the American nuclear power industry. SEPT_07 Georgia resident. “Energy efficiency is our No. 1 source of energy that can be quickly tapped, and it’s the most affordable because we are the least energy-efficient region in the country,” she said. “If you look at all the states where the nuclear plants are being proposed in the South, we rank poorly in terms of money invested in electricity efficiency programs or building code measures. And we use the most energy.” The resulting reprieve from extra base-load construction, she said, would give renewable energy technologies time to mature and expand their capacity capabilities. And further-developed renewables, combined with energy efficiency increases and conservation, could possibly satiate the South’s forthcoming power demand increases. The Cato Institute’s Taylor said he wouldn’t rule out that possibility, but doubted its success. Other than frowning on the high expense of renewable energy sources and artificial, government-supported market demand for them, he said many of the technologies aren’t conducive to satisfying intense demand, such as wind. “The majority of the wind we get from a wind-fired power plant comes during the night and during low-pressure periods. The demand for energy is primarily during peak, and peak demand is when you get the least amount of energy out of that wind power plant,” Taylor said. “That’s why each of these facilities either has to have its own stand-alone fossil fuel backup system so they can provide electricity when it’s needed, or they have to contract with someone else to get it.” Though NuStart encourages utilities to develop renewable energy, Kray said it would be far more expensive to produce the volume of power a nuclear plant can produce using renewable energy sources. Heymer agrees energy efficiency has been lackluster in the South, but insists it’s on the rise, and could temporarily delay baseload construction. However, he doubts that renewable energy, increased efficiency and conservation could handle the projected demand alone. “If you look at Progress Energy, their growth rate is in the area of 40,000 new customers a year. They’re going forward with significant new programs for conservation and energy efficiency, but they still need base-load generation,” Heymer said, adding that Florida is also in dire need of base-load capacity. “You have 1,000 people a day moving to Florida. They need base-load generation.” Some say the EIA’s 40 percent usage increase projections are overblown. Jon Block, project manager for nuclear technology and climate change at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), points to the industry’s similar demand projections during the 1970s that proved false during the 1980s. Utilities canceled many of the nuclear plants originally ordered due to those false predictions. He said he sees no reason to believe the usage projections this time around. “Energy forecasting is a practice for drunk monkeys. They have a better record than most of the forecasters,” Taylor said. “No matter how smart the analyst, no matter how blue the blue-ribbon commission might be, no matter how well credentialed the academic, no matter how steeped in the industry they might be, if you look at the history of past prognostication, with regard to energy price, technology or demand, you’ll find that they are unerringly incorrect.” NuStart’s Kray admits predictions are risky, but said she believes results will be different this time. “What might be different is, if you look at the capacity investment that has been made during the last 10 years,” she said, “you’ll find that there really hasn’t been much, if any, significant base-load generation put onto the U.S. grid.” Efficiency gains in plants during the mid1990s saved utilities from needing new plants as demand rose, she said, and at this point, the industry has gotten most of the maximum extra output from increased efficiencies. “During the ’80s, the capacity factor was down in the ’70s, so you had a lot of room for improvement,” Kray said. “That enabled nuclear to keep up with the growth in demand. But if you look forward, and if you want nuclear to continue to uphold a 20 percent contribution to the power supply, then you’re going to have to add new plants.” The volatility of natural gas prices was a strong incentive to grow nuclear power, coal and renewable energy, she said, to maintain stable energy prices. “You don’t want to be completely hostage to one fuel-type, whether it’s coal, nuclear or natural gas.” Nuclear Welfare State Federal government subsidies will play a vital role in determining whether Wall Street investors back new nuclear plant construction in the United States. Congress aimed to guarantee 100 percent of the first six construction loans with the federal Energy Policy Act of 2005. However, the Department of Energy recently demonstrated that the legislation’s final draft only obligated it to cover 80 percent. Taylor said the nuclear industry reacted furiously, insist- PHOTO COURTESY OF TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY 22 Contractors measure the thickness of paint inside Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant, Unit 1. http://www.govtech.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Government Technology - September 2007

Contents Point of View Big Picture ESRI Insert The Last Mile GT Spectrum Profile Nuclear Revival Way Back Machine Intel Insert Tale of TIERS Joining Forces Saving Seniors Site Seeing Quarter Miles Two Cents Products Signal: Noise Digital Communities Contents Our Road Ahead Course of Action Shared Interests Special Report: Foundation for the Future Using Wireless to Save Lives Smart Grids for Energy Conservation Community Governing and Wizards

Government Technology - September 2007

For optimal viewing of this digital publication, please enable JavaScript and then refresh the page. If you would like to try to load the digital publication without using Flash Player detection, please click here.