Sustainable Land Development Today - January 2008 - (Page 14) Industry Outlook tion among owners and the architectural and engineering communities over the last few years—the industry is increasingly recognizing green building capabilities as a necessary part of a firm’s best practices,” the report states. Publicly owned buildings—schools, administration buildings and the like— appear to be the most likely to adopt such environmentally methods as well as federal, state and local governments. There are also a growing number of multi-family projects that are incorporating green practices as a way to increase their marketability. Retail chains will go that route related to social responsibility, lower operational costs and gain positive public relations, according to the McGraw-Hill Construction report. It predicts that by 2010, green building will comprise 5-10 percent of non-residential building stock. A survey of Sustainable Land Development Today subscribers indicated that over 58 percent expect their business in 2008 to be slightly better or much better than last year. More than 30 percent expect this year to be the same as last year; leaving less than 12 percent believing that 2008 will be slightly or much worse than 2007. Ironically, respondents were less optimistic about the prospects for the industry. Over a quarter polled thought that the industry will be worse in 2008 than 2007. Slightly more than 41 percent expect the industry to improve this year. Consumer confidence is down significantly, according to Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. The reading in November 2007 continued a sharp decline since the summer. "Consumers' apprehension about the short-term outlook is being fueled by volatility in financial markets, rising prices at the pump and the likelihood of larger home heating bills this winter,” she said. “In fact, consumers' inflation expectations have surpassed the spike experienced this spring and a larger percentage of consumers than last month expect stock prices to decline.” Those anticipating business conditions to worsen increased to 16.7 percent from 13.9 percent. Those that believe business conditions to improve declined to 12.4 percent from 14.0 percent. The Societal Landscape Meanwhile, the nation’s population is expected to continue some long standing trends. The migration to states in the West, South Central and Southeast is expected to continue for years to come, which would indicate a robust future for the housing market in those areas. In addition, the population in the U.S. is growing at an annual rate of one percent, making it one of the few developed countries that will have more people in a decade than it has today, according to an analysis reported in The Kiplinger Letter. The Sun Belt will continue to see strong growth, with the Southern population ballooning by more than 50 percent by 2030 and the West by 35 percent. Meanwhile, the populous Northeast will see only five percent population growth and the less populated Midwest will grow only seven percent. “By 2030, huge areas of Kansas, for example, will have fewer inhabitants I ex p ec t o u r b u s i n es s i n 2 0 0 8 t o b e . . . Much better 14.6% Much worse 1.5% Slightly worse 10.1% Slightly better 43.4% About the same 30.3% Survey of Sustainable Land Development today subscribers in 2007. 14 January 2008 Sustainable Land Development Today then they had in the late 19th century,” the Kiplinger report stated. Approximately half of the population growth today is due to immigrants. It is estimated that approximately 25 percent of the 11.8 million workers in the construction industry are Hispanic, a trend that has not slowed, despite the housing market slowdown and increasingly stringent immigration rules. Although tougher border restrictions will cut down on illegal immigrants, the odds favor a move by the Federal Government to eventually approve a guest worker program and the number of legal immigrants will increase. The departure from the workforce of retiring baby boomers — a gathering storm that many employers are choosing to ignore – will leave major vacancies in the workforce and necessitate the move. Society will continue to wrestle with the dilemma of where these immigrants and shifting population will be housed. It is unrealistic to expect that the major urban areas of the country will be the desired answer for the majority. This makes it incumbent upon leaders in the land development industry to maximize efforts to perfect sustainable developments and neighborhoods. It is also a reality that our suburbs will continue to expand, but they should be done in a manner that minimizes the waste of land, preserves open space, and balances the need of our people, planet, and prosperity. Population growth combined with the effects of climate change and development are putting pressure on water which ushers in major challenges to conserve resources. Some climatologists believe persistent drought, particularly in the West and South—which have seen some of the greatest population growth—may be more than a temporary event spanning a few years. It may be the norm. Expansive growth and prolonged dry spells in other areas create problems, putting pressure on water supplies as well. “Conservation will be the new ethic,” according to the Kiplinger review. “High prices will be a motivating factor.”
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