Remodeling - February 2009 - (Page 12)

ViewPointMarketWatch No Immediate Recovery in Sight tened as recently as the second quarter of 2008, but continuing economic uncertainty and tight credit threaten to extend any recovery. “While we may be nearing the bottom of the remodeling cycle, there is little to push spending back into a growth phase until the economy recovers,” Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program, said in the release. The LIRA measures and projects only spending by U.S. homeowners on property improvements. Other components of the broader market, such as spending by homeowners on maintenance and repairs, and spending on rental and vacation property, are not included. —S.A. 4-Quarter Moving Rate of Change Figure This 60% Angie’s List members who say they are planning a remodeling project for 2009. Most also say they will hire professionals to get the job done and will not need to seek financing. Source: Examiner.com ➔ $160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Jan. 22 press release from the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University confirms what remodelers in most parts of the country already know: remodeling activity is continuing to erode. According to the most recent Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA), the annual rate of homeowner improvement spending, which was 11.9% in the fourth quarter of 2008, will be 12.1% by the third quarter of 2009. The LIRA is released quarterly by the JCHS Remodeling Futures Program (the next release is April 16, 2009). The annual rate of change, which began a sharp decline in the third quarter of 2006, had flatHomeowner Improvements 4-Quarter Moving Totals in Billions of $ A $4 billion Amount the government has allotted to states and cities to buy and rehab foreclosed properties Source: CNNMoney.com 35% 30 146.1 144.4 144.9 147.4 144.4 LIRA U.S. CENSUS BUREAU 5% Planned reduction in 2009 volume by 60 major companies, despite the financial meltdown Source: Fortune 25 20 15 141.8 13.6 131.1 16.0 136.5 17.6 139.1 134.8 14.8 10.6 7.0 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -7.7 -12.7 -13.8 -11.9 -10.0 113.2 109.5 -12.0 -12.1 Q2 Q3 128.7 124.5 122.6 121.3 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1,484 Record number of CEOs who left their jobs in 2008; 623 either retired or “stepped down” Source: survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas Q4 Q1 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009 Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies LOCAL FORECAST Low Buyer Conﬁdence in Tulsa 1. move gray bars and blue fever line to le 2. bar on the far left relocates to far right can’t lead us the of this one due to overbuild out new current quarter number 3. ditto for fever line conditions,” he says. >Show Grid to place top of bar 4. View Klein says5. keep items on assigned layers his peers are forecasting a drop T he Tulsa, Okla., economy has some strong points, says remodeler Ken Klein. “Since ours is an oil-based economy, generally we have not had huge economic problems. Our cities do not have large budget issues, we have had very few subprime mortgage problems, and our home values increased a little in 2008,” the president of 12 Remodeling February 2009 Kleinco Construction Services says. But weaknesses, including lack of buyer confidence and credit, are beginning to hurt small businesses. “Housing starts are down over 25% last year from the year before. We know that major additions and alterations will follow that,” he says. With recessions in past years, new construction helped the state recover. “But builders in volume in 2009. Kleinco’s backlog is smaller this year than the same time last year, and job size is decreasing. “Even people with large equity in their home are looking at minimum maintenance — they would rather improve than build an addition,” Klein says. He points out that lower mortgage rates and refinancing might provide a marginal boost. —N.P. remodelingmag.com http://www.Examiner.com http://www.CNNMoney.com http://www.remodelingmag.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Remodeling - February 2009

Remodeling - February 2009 Contents First Word Market Watch Linda Case Mark Richardson Shawn McCadden Ways + Means Bottom Line Sales + Marketing Field Notes By Design Tech@ Work Good Form Close Up Second Look Going Green Clinic Specbook Upscale Remodeling Start Right People, Process, Profits Interview: Sara Ryan Duffy, President of SRD International New + Notable Products Final Touch Green Speak Green Spec In Focus First Look Benchmark

Remodeling - February 2009

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