World Ark Magazine - November/December 2007 - (Page 44)

the developing world, especially the poorest countries, can expect major consequences from global warming in coming decades— many areas face the likelihood of more severe heat waves, tropical cyclones, floods from heavy rains, prolonged droughts, losses of valuable species, and crop and fi shing losses. Successive IPCC reports have documented increasing certainty of the science, and stronger evidence that the future of climate change is already arriving. Sub-Saharan Africa, one of the world’s poorest regions, will be particularly hardhit. The IPCC report concluded that by 2020 “agricultural production, including access to food, in many countries and regions in Africa is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease.” In some countries, the decrease in yield from rain-fed agriculture “could be as much as 50 percent by 2020.” agricultural productivity. In Latin America, warming is expected to cause losses of Amazon forest and biodiversity by mid-century, with agriculture harmed in dryer climes. Prolonged droughts and expanded desertification. Increased severity of storms, flooding and erosion. Longer, more severe heat waves, reduced summer river flow and water shortages. Loss of essential pollinators and soil organisms. Decreased grain yields. Deterioration of coastal fisheries, mangroves and coral reefs. One or more of these impacts is expected to affect most of the world’s poorest countries during this century. NEW THREATS TO THE GLOBAL POOR The very poor, who typically depend most on natural resources, bear the brunt of losses from climate change. The World Health Organization estimates that 150,000 deaths each year are caused by global warming, largely due to diarrhea, Climate change is now one of the greatest long-term threats to our hopes of ending global poverty. Another major study, the “Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change,” noted that in the tropics, “even small amounts of warming will lead to declines in yield.” Water, both in excess and in shortage, will also become a greater issue. In Asia, millions of people live in low-lying areas in the path of typhoons of expected increasing frequency and intensity, and are at greater risk of ocean or river flooding. Glacier melting will also increase river flooding. The cruel irony is that after the glaciers have receded there will be decreased flow in the rivers, when seasonal melt has been normal and helpful. Later in a century that begins with flooding, South Asia is expected to face droughts, water shortages, and declines in malaria and malnutrition, and expects increased risks in poorer tropical regions. The housing of the poor is often located in the most environmentally stressed and risky areas. Houses constructed of mud, bamboo, straw and other inexpensive materials are vulnerable to the type of extreme weather events expected to occur with increased frequency and intensity. The poor cannot get insurance against the risks to which they are most vulnerable. Climate change is likely to worsen hunger. Many undernourished people rely on subsistence farming for their diets; and the productivity of small, rain-fed farms in Africa is expected to decline due to droughts. Many poor countries already suffer from erosion 44 November/December 2007 | WORLD ARK www.heifer.org http://www.heifer.org

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of World Ark Magazine - November/December 2007

World Ark - November/December 2007 Contents Letters For the Record The Good Life Asked & Answered Pursuing Happiness (PRODUCT) RED: Consumer Power Fights AIDS in Africa Rwanda Reconciles End Hunger Now Protecting the Poor from Climate Change Mixed Media Heifer Bulletin Heifer Spirit Heifer Calendar Reflection

World Ark Magazine - November/December 2007

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