Marketing Review — Fall 2008 - (Page 19)

6) Technology eases security delays Tired of waiting forever in airport security lines? Relief is not far off. By making traveler identification far more secure, biometric passports should go a long way to ease checking in and out. Today most carry only descriptive data and a digital photo of the owner. Future versions will carry fingerprints—German passports already do—retinal photos, or other hardto-fake identifiers. Those passports will enable the second convenience, priority lists that speed travelers through customs as frequent flier lists ease their way through airport security. Terahertz cameras will let screeners check your soles for hidden bombs without taking off your shoes—and without raising the kind of controversy that accompanied news that full-body T-ray cameras let them see through your clothes. No doubt we have missed other ways in which new technologies will help speed us through security lines ten years hence, but even these few should go a long way to take the frustration out of entering or leaving an airplane, cruise ship, or country. 5) RFID Combining a digital memory chip with a tiny radio transmitter, radio-frequency identification chips—RFID—make it possible to identify and track whatever they are attached to. Biometric passports are one application of RFID. Hotel key cards are another. But it is the behind-the-scenes uses of RFID that will make the greatest difference in hospitality. Restaurants, food services, hotels—just about every kind of business that deals in physical objects—are using them to keep track of inventory, so that they can order the supplies they need, when they need them, rather than keeping extras on hand to avoid running out. That boosts efficiency and cuts costs. RFID should raise profit margins throughout the hospitality and travel industry, even as it improves guest satisfaction. Think how much happier air travelers will be when their baggage reliably arrives at the same destination they do! 4) Real-time translation Forget the old-fashioned talking dictionarFALL 2008 • HSMAI MARKETING REVIEW ies where you pick a phrase and the machine speaks it in another language. Much sooner than ten years from now, hand-held translators will convert whatever you say among eight or ten major languages in real time. They will not replace human translators entirely, nor foreignlanguage guides in major museums and tourist attractions. But they will make it a lot easier to ask, “Where’s the nearest loo?” in Japanese. Future models will add other functions, such as currency exchange rates, updated daily from the Net. But the biggest advance will be camera-equipped translators that you can aim at a shop sign, bus schedule, prescription label, or menu to find out what it means. No more ordering a meal, only to find out that you have inadvertently asked for the wine steward! It’s coming within ten years. er, elder-friendly signs, door and faucet handles (levers), and announcement volumes; spicier foods to delight less acute taste buds, but smaller portions suited to waning appetites; special tours with earlybird specials; and enhanced medical services at resorts and other destinations. 3) Recovery of the airline industry In these dark days of skyrocketing fuel costs and threatened bankruptcies, any thought of a brighter future for the airlines seems only a sad fantasy. Yet, today’s pain is forcing changes on the industry that will make for a more efficient, prosperous tomorrow. Airlines are cutting their routes, eliminating planes to raise the number of passengers per plane, and cooperating more with competitors to serve more destinations with fewer aircraft. Southwest has bucked the industry trend by eliminating miscellaneous charges and setting flat, no-surprises prices for its flights. These innovations, smaller workforces, more efficient airplanes, and other developments will help airlines control both costs and fares and put them on course for a profitable future. 2) Aging of the Baby Boom generation Wherever they have gone in life, America’s vast Baby Boom generation has dominated their world. Over the next ten years, they will be going into retirement, the period when, on average, people in the developed world have the greatest wealth and freedom to travel. Their needs will dominate much of hospitality planning. Look for new facilities and services, such as larg- 1) China and India meet the world They’re coming! An extra 75 million tourists every year, fanning out across the world, 50 million from the vast new Chinese middle class and 25 million from India. Add a few million more from oilrich Russia—to date, most have been visiting the Middle East, rather than more traditional destinations—and from increasingly prosperous Brazil. In the next ten years, the market for international tourism will nearly double—and that does not count the opening of new tourist destinations in India and once-reclusive China for visitors from the West. If there could be any greater development in hospitality and travel over the next ten years—or any ten years in history—we at Forecasting International cannot think what it might be. So there they are, our nominations for the ten most important developments of the next decade in the world’s most vibrant industry. No doubt we will eventually look back on this article and wonder how we missed some other novelty that has unexpectedly transformed the field. Yet, we are comfortable with this list. From Moscow to Mumbai and Fairbanks to Capetown, few participants in hospitality and travel will remain unaffected by these ten innovations for the next ten years. n Marvin J. Cetron, Ph.D. is the founder and president of Forecasting International of Falls Church, Virginia and is one of the foremost forecasters-futurists in the world. He has consulted for more than 300 of the Fortune 500 companies, 200 professional and academic associations, 17 foreign governments, and many branches of the U.S. government. He has been a consultant to the White House in both Republican and Democrat administrations. He can be reached at marglo@tili.com 19

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Marketing Review — Fall 2008

Marketing Review – Fall 2008 Contents The Online Marketer Success Stories Forecasting Trends Ian Schrager: The Revolutionary Man Leaving No Stone Unturned: The Quest for Ancillary Revenue Gaga Gadgets for Execs on the Go: Functional New Portable Technology to Make Life and Work on the Road More Hospitable Effectively Weathering the Ups and Downs of the Economic Cycle Experiments in Podcasting Higher Transportation Costs and a Slowing Economy Shift Hotel Room Demand

Marketing Review — Fall 2008

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